Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 -1.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 26.8% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .74 -14.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$209.0M
  
• 37 New 52-Week Highs, 102 New Lows
• 59.6% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.3 -.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.2 -.11%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,492.1 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 50.0 (NEUTRAL) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.9 -9.1%
  
• Vix 14.1 +1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -3.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.6 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +8.9% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.91 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.72 -.14: Growth Rate +22.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -36.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 13.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.0% -1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.7%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.1%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -148 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -3.4% 2) Gold & Silver -3.0% 3) Oil Service -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MTCH, CRESY, KGS, NARI, LOAR, SYNA, WDC, IMO, APGE, ORA, CLF, INOD, BWLP, OXM, RCKT, SEI, ARVN, KRYS, NDSN, PLAY, BNED, ADBE, LOVE and KROS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UEC 2) AMKR 3) IAU 4) ADBE 5) RVNC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KROS 2) ADBE 3) NDSN 4) LOVE 5) HUMA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLE 3) IGF 4) XLV 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.8% 2) Electric Vehicles +1.2% 3) Computer Services +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CADL, JUNS, HUT, CIEN, WBD, BTDR, SMLR, ARQQ, RIOT, BKKT, NTNX, VIAV, OPRA, CELH, MBLY, AS, HOOD, ODD, RBRK, ARM, CHRW, PARA, MET, PENN, LC, ACI, JAZZ, FNKO, CRK and MYGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) HIMX 3) NMRA 4) GOEV 5) DDD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TRVI 2) LQDT 3) SHOT 4) INZY 5) CHRW
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) KIE 3) GDX 4) XLB 5) XLF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
• The Import Prices Index Ex Petrol MoM for Nov. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.8% gain in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (ETR) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US Baker Hughes Rig Count, weekly CFTC speculative positioning reports, San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium and the (AFRM) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST