Sunday, January 12, 2025

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       
Global Research:
Zero Hedge: 
LA Times:
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

4th PSYOP Group:
DailyMail.com:
Psywarrior.com
Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @NicoleShanahan
  • @Breaking911
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JustineBateman
  • @TheTankGuns
  • @Sassafrass_84
  • @persianjewess
  • @kylenabecker
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @amuse
  • @Stillgray
  • @listen_2learn
  • @TonySeruga
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ElectionWiz
  • @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @InvestigateJ6.
  • @Nancy023922191
  • @LibsofTikTok
  • @Wendy4545
  • @TaraBull808
  • @Bo_French_TX
  • @CreasonJana
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.75 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.6 -.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.38%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.46%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 11, 2025

Today's Headlines

The Diplomat:
  • How China Uses Geoengineering to Pursue a Hybrid Warfare Strategy. China’s growing ability to alter and manipulate the physical environment could help advance its geopolitical ambitions. Weather medication may also be used to sabotage troop movements and logistics operations in border regions by artificially altering the rainy conditions, which would slow down the tactical movement of the adversary on a real-time basis.
Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:   
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (ASO) and (MCY).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

Google Patents:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

4th PSYOP Group:
DailyMail.com:
Psywarrior.com
Around X:
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • The fires in Los Angeles are a military operation. It's a perfect example of hybrid warfare. Notice the timing and preparation. The budget was cut. Reservoirs were drained. Fire insurance was canceled. Even hydrant tests were halted. (pic)
  • The attack on L.A. was extremely well timed. Mon 10:38pm: Bass sends this tweet & flies to Africa Tues 10:30am: Palisades fire starts Tues 6:18pm: Eaton fire starts Tues 10:30pm: Hurst fire starts Wed 6:00pm: Sunset fire starts. Who signaled the arsonists to start the attack?
  • @BrianNorgard 
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @TomFitton
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @nicksortor
  • @RealStewPeters
  • @KashPatel_News
  • @Breaking911
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @AllBiteNoBark88
  • @CollinRugg
  • @amuse
  • @FinanceLanceLot
  • @Mrgunsgear
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @GenFlynn
  • @houmanhemmati
  • @VigilantFox
  • @LeadingReport
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @MarinaMedvin
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @Catturd2
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • Here’s the list of companies so far who abandoned DEI: Meta McDonald’s Walmart Boeing Molson Coors Lowe’s Ford Jack Daniels Harley Davidson John Deere Tractor Supply Toyota Nissan Caterpillar Inc. The DEI grift is dying.
  • @DC_Draino
  • @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, January 10, 2025

Stocks Falling Sharply into Final Hour on Rising Inflation Expectations, Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.4 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.7 +2.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +20.2% -1.0 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.05 +.11:  Growth Rate +14.4% unch., P/E 21.3 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.87 +.42: Growth Rate +25.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 38.2 basis points (2s/10s) -1.8 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% +5.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.5% +.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 74.0% (+17.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 62.0%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long