Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful  
  • BOYCOTT STARBUCKS ERUPTS AFTER CHARLIE KIRK NAME BAN. A viral video shows Starbucks’ computer system refusing to print “Charlie Kirk” on cup stickers, flagging it as “political.” An employee confirmed the system is programmed to block his name entirely. The clip ignited outrage, with BoycottStarbucks trending as thousands accused the company of targeting Kirk even after his assassination. Supporters are now ordering his favorite Starbucks drink in his honor, turning the boycott into both a protest and a tribute. Critics say the move exposes Starbucks’ double standard, pointing out the company openly embraced left-wing causes in the past.
  • TRUMP: NETANYAHU DID NOT ALERT ME TO ISRAEL STRIKE. Reporter: "Did Netanyahu speak to you directly to alert you Israel was going to be striking Hamas in Qatar?" Trump: "No he didn't." Reporter: "How did you learn about it?" Trump: "Same way you did." (video)
  • ISRAELI LEADER: WE'LL PUT RESTRICTION ON THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND U.S. SHOULD DO THE SAME. Leader of Israel’s opposition Democratic Party, Yair Golan: "The next thing I will do, we will do, is to put restriction on the social media in a way that not allowed to make brutal propaganda. Because this is a worldwide problem. And it should be initiated by the U.S. The place where all the big firms is settled. Facebook and X and all the rest. This is a major problem for democracy all over the globe. And we need to treat it, seriously." (video)
  • BILL ACKMAN FIRES BACK AT CANDACE OWENS OVER CHARLIE KIRK CLAIMS. Bill Ackman is denying Candace Owens’ claim that he staged an “intervention” to pressure Charlie Kirk on Israel: “This afternoon Candace slandered me by accusing me of ‘staging an intervention’ with Charlie Kirk in which ‘threats were made’… I have never threatened Charlie Kirk, Turning Point or anyone associated with him. I have never blackmailed anyone, let alone Charlie.” (pic)
  • @disclosetv
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • KENNEDY: "Who, if anyone, did Epstein traffic these young women to?" PATEL: "There is no credible information, none ... that he trafficked to other individuals." Then why is Ghislaine Maxwell in prison? (video)
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @RealPatrickWebb
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @MAHA_Action
  • @AFpost
  • @NicHulscher
  • @catturd2
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @DowdEdward
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @MattWalshBlog
  • @Red_Pill_US
  • @wideawake_media
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.64 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 82.0 +.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.37%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Jitters, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Utility/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.66 +.22%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.02% -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.5 +1.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.54 +.10:  Growth Rate +11.7% unch., P/E 22.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.69 +.47: Growth Rate +19.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -41.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +.1 point
  • US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% +30.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.9% -1.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 76.8% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 69.9%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -297 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -3.1% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Utilities -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TECK, SA, GRDN, ORLA, RKLB and PLAY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) JEPQ 2) JETS 3) BITF 4) PLAY 5) MPW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLAY 2) RKLB 3) HAIN 4) HIMS 5) KLC
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLP 3) XLY 4) XLV 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +2.6% 2) Oil Service +2.3% 3) Defense +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WBTN, JMIA, CRNC, PAGS, BIDU, APA, CVI, BE, JAMF, USAR, STLD, MRNA, CLSK, RIVN, CMPR, QSG, RAPP, WIX, MARA, FERG, SGHC, AMKR, OXY, CGON, KLIC, DLO, ONTO, RGEN, SKY, TGS, CHRD, HSY, ACMR, ADUR, HUT, ROKU, CHA, RIOT, TCOM, MAZE, CVE, JD, VCEL, ENVA, IMO, KVYO, BABA, BMNR and NVO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JETS 2) URNM 3) OPI 4) CRNC 5) LAZR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WBTN 2) STLD 3) BE 4) FERG 5) CIFR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) VGT 3) IBB 4) IHI 5) VFH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CBRL)/.77
  • (GIS)/.81 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for Aug. is estimated to fall to 1365K versus 1428K in July.
  • Building Permits for Aug. is estimated to rise to 1370K versus 1362K in July. 

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC is expected to lower the benchmark Fed Funds Rate from 4.25-4.5% to 4.0-4.25%. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC's press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, KeyBanc Taking Charge Energy Transition Symposium, (CAG) annual meeting, (TRUP) investor day, (MDB) investor meeting and the DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 -3.8
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .92 -24.5% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$6.6M
  • 96 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 59.3% (-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.7 -2.4
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.9 -2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 +.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.9 -.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.8 +30.7%
  • Vix 16.1 +2.8%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -11.6%