Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.66 +.22%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.02% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +3.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +5.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.5 +1.2 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.54 +.10: Growth Rate +11.7% unch., P/E 22.6 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.69 +.47: Growth Rate +19.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -41.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +.1 point
- US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% +30.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.9% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 76.8% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 69.9%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -297 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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