Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 +.05%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -.5 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.9 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -2.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +15.9% -.7 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.54 +.28: Growth Rate +12.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.29 -.14: Growth Rate +20.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -.1
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +.6 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% -12.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 68.2% (+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +204 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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