Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% -3.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.27 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.3 -5.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.1 -6.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) -.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.80 -.48: Growth Rate +11.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 22.8 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.25 +.29: Growth Rate +19.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 +11.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 unch.
- US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% -1.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.9% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.4%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -93 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my financial/tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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