Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.3 -4.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99 -8.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.8 +1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.5 -.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.56 +.59%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.4 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 -16.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$242.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 338.44 -.27%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -3.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.3 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.3 -1.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 131.0 -.43%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.75 +.26%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.5 basis points -6.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 126.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 707.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.90% -7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 +.8 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.3 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.64 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 349.13 +.16: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 32.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .72 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 7.0 basis point (2s/10s) +6.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 72.7% -.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.29% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.7%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.0%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -189 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -.6% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Banks +.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LYFT, BA, PDD, MRNA, GRMN, ADBE and VSAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DBI 2) ZI 3) SWKS 4) ADBE 5) RH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SLQT 2) PDD 3) VSAT 4) GRMN 5) OFIX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) XLE 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.2% 2) Retail +3.0% 3) Disk Drives +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RH, RDFN, SMMT, ARHS, ASTS, UPWK, PENN, LAUR, VSCO, ETSY, CAL, BVN, TLN, W, IOVA, X, MSTR, U, BYON, VKTX, IBTA, MODG, APP, ASTH, NTGR, GATO, CLF, MEG, RKT, ANAB, AMR, SOC, DAWN, MGNI, GEV, ARM, NTLA, DNLI, CORZ, MLYS, UBER, IEP, Z, VRDN, SIG, MAG, ALK, TNGX, GLDD, HVT, FL, TPX, SG, TEN, ZI, TCMD, SBGI, PRO, ALHC, HI, CELH, IBKR, FMS, TGLS, CHCT, AFRM, HAE, GE, FIVE, CBRL, PFSI, THO, FOUR, CWH and FN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALK 2) NGD 3) MGNI 4) IP 5) RH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RH 2) IMRX 3) CNTA 4) VMAR 5) W
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XOP 3) XLV 4) GDX 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to -3.7 versus -4.7 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (DECK) 6-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The JPMorgan US All-Stars Conference, Denver Gold Forum, TD Cowen Sip/Snack/Scrub Summit, European Society for Medical Oncology Conference, Cantor Healthcare Conference, (SWBI) annual meeting and the (EA) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.5 +.2
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 86.6% of Issues Advancing, 11.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 -27.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$292.8M
  
• 298 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 57.4% (+5.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 51.1 +2.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 221.2 +.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,705.5 -.35%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 50.0 (NEUTRAL) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.0 -15.2%
  
• Vix 16.4 -3.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -5.3%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Kylenabecker

• JUST IN: A former Clinton adviser is calling for a formal internal investigation into ABC News’ rigged presidential debate. Mark Penn called Thursday for ABC to probe if there was some effort at "rigging the outcome of this debate." Kamala Harris’ scripted answers calls into question whether she knew the questions in advance. There are unconfirmed reports an ABC News-employed whistleblower is willing to sign an affidavit that the network gave the Harris team advance notice of the questions. The ABC News moderators Linsey Davis and David Muir “fact-checked” Trump at least five times, while never fact-checking Harris, despite her telling lies and half-truths that have been widely fact-checked as being false. The debate moderator Linsey Davis had previously boasted on air about literally being Kamala Harris’ sorority sister. Harris is also good friends with Dana Walden, who is Disney’s co-chairman and oversees ABC News. She is the boss of the debate moderators. ABC News ran a three-on-one presidential debate and thereby committed election interference. This is a huge scandal. ABC News must be investigated!
• THERE YOU HAVE IT: ABC News debate "moderator" Linsey Davis boasts on air about literally being Kamala Harris' sorority sister. WTF. (video)
• WHOA: CNN just HAMMERED ABC News for its biased presidential debate moderation. ABC News constantly "fact checked" Trump and let Kamala off the hook for lying and dodging questions. Even CNN sees the double standard. Wow. (video)
  

• @ImMeme0

• WOW, this happened in Shanksville, PA. Under NO circumstances should you share this video, as it may trigger Democrats upon witnessing the stark contrast in who the American people regard with respect as a leader. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• FACT CHECK: During the Presidential debate tonight, @KamalaHarris and ABC @ABC said there “were no credible reports” of Haitian immigrants eating people’s pets and local geese… That is a lie. Here’s a copy of the official police communications from Springfield, Ohio which proves police did in fact encounter Haitian illegals who each killed a goose. Read the highlighted sections: (pic)

• @nicksortor
  

• JUST IN: Over a DOZEN busses are rolling up to the Kamala Harris “rally” in North Carolina, dumping HUNDREDS of people out front. Why does this ALWAYS happen at Kamala events but NEVER at Trump events? Her ENTIRE campaign is FAKE! Why won’t mainstream media call her out?! (video)

• @EndWokeness 

• "Everyone is talking about cats and ducks in this town. But I want to talk about one very special lady. My mother-in-law." Springfield, Ohio resident whose beloved mother-in-law was recently kiIIed by an immigrant from Haiti speaks out. Stop what you're doing and watch this. (video)

• @libsoftiktok

• Time just quietly updated their article where they accused Trump of lying about Kamala’s support for s*x change surgery for detained illegals. They backtracked on it and are now admitting that Kamala supports tax funded s*x change surgery for illegal aliens in prison. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• This American Is From The Same Island As The Ohio Haitian Illegal Migrants. “The Haitian immigrants are indeed eating animals. Let me tell you something about these people. Not only are they harvesting cats for food, but also for witchcraft purposes, voodoo purposes. Understand this, if you don't wanna take my word for it, go out there. Meet a Haitian, talk to them about it. this is not something they aren't proud of. It’s their culture. they eat these animals and they use the blood and bones of these animals for voodoo and witchcraft purposes. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• In the debate against Kamala Harris, Trump referenced this undercover video featuring Nancy Pelosi's daughter, where she admits that January 6 was a hoax and a staged insurrection. (video)
  

• @VigilantFox

• Wow. This independent voter completely tore Kamala Harris apart. This is brilliant. She was hoping Kamala would actually give her some answers, but Kamala left her with more doubts and concerns. “What is an opportunity economy? What does that mean? Who's paying for the tax cuts that she's proposing? ... Who's paying for all of these child tax credits? That's just the taxpayers coming out of pocket and hurting the middle class again.” “And we know from Donald Trump's presidency before he can fix the economy. So I was really looking for her to make an impact on my thought process tonight, and she didn't deliver that.” (video)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• Trump's closing statement video on ABC News' TikTok has soared to almost 12 million views, one million likes, and thousands of comments supporting him. Kamala's video has a quarter of the views Trump got and thousands of comments AGAINST her. TikTok is a super leftist platform, but even they can't hide the fact that people resonated with Trump's boldness and authenticity way more than the lies that came out of Kamala's mouth. (pic)
• BREAKING: A new CNN poll shows that Kamala Harris has LOST support of voters on who they trust to handle the economy, and Trump has gained. (pic)

• @charliekirk11

• BREAKING: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is now sending State Troopers into Springfield, OH along with millions in funding to address the Haitian migrant crisis there, saying: "The federal government has not demonstrated that they have any kind of plan to deal with the issue." What's happened to the residents of Springfield is criminal. A town of 50,000 Americans does not deserve to be inundated by 20,000 foreigners, ever. Heads need to roll. (pic)

• @Breaking911

• IT NEVER ENDS: Biden admin. announces new $700M in aid for Ukraine's energy grid, healthcare, education, and other programs. (pic)

• @DC_Draino

• Wow - Florida Dept of Health says nobody should get the new mRNA Covid vaccines this winter. Urges people to use therapeutic alternatives. Pfizer isn’t going to like this!

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• BREAKING: A Springfield, Ohio man claims he saw Haitian migrants in a van catching cats, and they later admitted to the police that they were eating them. "We've lost a whole bunch of cats." "A van pulled over, and it had over 100 cats in it with the Haitians." "They said they was eating them." "I watched them get pulled over with the cats and admit to the police that they was eating them." (video)

• @thevivafrei

• Everyone trying to claim Trump was wrong on late term abortions… The truth is even worse. Watch this video to the end. This is the level of depravity, incompetence, and casual evil that we are dealing with in government. (video)

• @ChuckCallesto

• SHOCK VIDEO: Woman calls clinic in Maryland asking for an ab*rtion at 34 months. Clinic AGREES and explains how they stop the babies heartbeat. This is SICK and once again proves Kamala lied, and ABC ran cover. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.6 +3.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.