Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Worries, US Economic Data, Technical Selling, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 +29.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.05 +23.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.5 -7.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.5 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -.33%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 +43.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 -10.0
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -24.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +163.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$455.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.7 +4.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 312.2 +5.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 270 +21
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +3.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.5 +2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.8 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.2 +3.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 130.6 +3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.8%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -20.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 695.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.12% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.1 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.5 +11.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.84 +.31:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.3 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 346.40 +.65: Growth Rate +22.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .84 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -3.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.04% -49.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.1% -.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 44.7%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.6%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -890 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long