Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.67
• (GBX)/1.78
• (LEVI)/.28

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Needham Healthcare Conference and the (AOS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• The DNC, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries are suing Trump over his EO to block non-citizens from voting. This should tell you everything you need to know… Wow. (pic)
• CNN ACCIDENTALLY ADMITS IT: SOROS IS OK BECAUSE HE HIDES IN THE SHADOWS. Jake Tapper and Kara Swisher just revealed the incredible double standard in their coverage of political donors. When discussing Elon's Wisconsin involvement, Tapper openly admitted: "You don't see George Soros out there talking, right? I mean, they might be giving money to organizations". Amazing. (video)
  

• @joshdcaptan

• Trump on DOGE: "They found something today that's horrible. You'll find out very soon. What they found is incredible." (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• WHY DOESN’T AMERICA GO AFTER GEORGE & ALEXANDER SOROS? While the DOJ plays whack-a-mole with low-level vandals and stooges... The real architects of chaos walk free — untouched, unseen, and well-funded. The Soros network has poured millions into DA races, judicial campaigns, and NGO activism that’s eroding law and order across the nation. Rogue judges. Organized riots. Lawfare against political opponents. These things don’t happen by accident — they happen with money, strategy, and protection from the top.

• @BillAckman

• My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President
  @realDonaldTrump, you need to do so immediately. Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions. Based on his track record to date with foreign governments, law firms, and universities, he is a tough, but fair negotiator. He loves to make deals and he loves to get things done promptly. I expect Trump will reward the early dealmakers with fairer deals than those that wait to sit down at the negotiating table. Countries that respond with additional tariffs on our goods will be severely punished. The carrot and the stick writ large, Big Boy style. The Art of the Deal will soon be sold out on @amazon. But if you are running a foreign country that is now subject to massive tariffs, don't wait to read the book. Just pick up the phone. Call the President, and make a deal. Just some advice from a friend of the global economy.

• @Inevitablewest

• BREAKING: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has officially banned the use of gender-neutral and non-binary symbols in all public schools. Only "boy" or "girl" will be allowed. Meloni is fighting back.

• @BehizyTweets

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just exposed a method foreign countries have used for decades to cheat the United States in trade. "Some countries have a value-added tax and they take that VAT tax of 20% and they use it to subsidize the production of their domestic industries. That's why we can't sell cars there because they give a rebate." And these countries have the gall to act shocked that the United States is finally acting. (video)

• @Libsoftiktok

• NYC Mayor Eric Adams recommends all New Yorkers read FBI Director Kash Patel's book on the deep state in order to understand why he was targeted. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• NEW: Texas passes resolution declaring March 23 as 'Pakistan Day'. Yes, this is real. We now have an official 'Pakistan Day' in America. The same state who’s allowing Epic City to be built for a Muslim only community. (video)

• @annvandersteel

• BREAKING. Evidence of PLANNED election fraud using extra ballots dropped based on votes tallied to get a Democrat win in Wisconsin race on Tuesday.

• @CharlieShrem

• Tariffs are not the story! Since Trump took office in Jan 2025, the 10-year yield has dropped from 4.79% to 4.17%. Look how much it’s dropped today! That 0.62% drop may not sound like much—until you realize the U.S. has $36.5 trillion in debt. This is stealth refinancing on a historic scale. Lower yields = trillions in interest savings. More breathing room. Less inflationary pressure. And the market is front-running it. Everyone’s watching tariffs. But this yield curve shift? It’s the real game. Trump isn’t just cutting spending— he’s restructuring America’s balance sheet in real time.

• @DiligentDenizen

• CONGRATS: After meeting with@LauraLoomer, President Trump fired 6, SIX, Mike Waltz staffers involved with the Signalgate debacle. Loomer proves that citizen journalists & independent media CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. Congratulations on your vindication Laura, you've earned it.

• @mattgaetz  

• Why is the Florida Legislature advancing a bill to give immunity to PESTICIDE makers? (pic)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.25 +5.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.9 -3.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.8 -1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.32%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Sharply into Afternoon on Escalating Global Trade War Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.8 +29.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.5 -19.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -9.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.9 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +3.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.8 +44.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +12.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +33.7%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$40.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.9 +5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 437.1 +11.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 240.0 +1.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.0 +6.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.3 +3.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.2 +7.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.2 +4.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 98.5 +5.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 -.5%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.0 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -4.75 basis points -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 603.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.2 euros/megawatt-hour -5.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.44 -.04:  Growth Rate +13.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 +.07: Growth Rate +21.1% unch., P/E 26.7 -1.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 33.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.7% +1.0 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.0% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.4%(+11.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -5.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -11.9% 2) Oil Service -10.8% 3) Regional Banks -8.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MAS, GIL, BX, STLA, WEX, INMD, DLTR, AXP, COF, DOW, BAC, SPG, BHVN, SIMO, WCC, HZO, WYNN, PH, EXPD, GEHC, TGT, PINS, RRX, FDX, C, EWBC, LULU, HOOD, BFH, CUK, APO, IOT, CCL, KKR, SBUX, NKE, AS, YETI, DKS, LAZ, KLC, HAS, COLM, UAL, EWTX, VLO, PENG, FND, SWK, TPR, SYF, CBRL, NCLH, M, NGON, ONON, PVH, HPQ, WHD, EL, MTDR, STX, WAL, CWH, GRMN, GLBE, CRI, ZBRA, WSM, BOOT, CROX, LOGI, DECK, CAL, BBY, RL, FL, DELL, SKX, AEO, RVLV, ELF, CVNA, COHR, LSCC, AFRM, VTLE, SHOP, GAP, URBN, VSCO, SN, WWW, CPRI, FIVE, VFC, W, RXST and RH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UAA 2) BKLN 3) HPQ 4) GTES 5) LCID

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RH 2) RXST 3) ELF 4) BBY 5) MPWR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KBE 3) SMH 4) GDX 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -3.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +1.9% 2) Foods +1.8% 3) Pharma +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GT, SKBL, LW, MOH, NGG, UL, DG, FMS, AWK, KR, ELV, CCEP, BTI, SBAC, PM, AMT, HLN, CM, FSLR, MCK, GSK and ELS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GT 2) SNDK 3) SMG 4) TSCO 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GT 2) KR 3) MCK 4) BJ 5) PM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLK 3) XLB 4) XLY 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 140K versus 151K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST