Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI Innovation -5.5% 2) Semis -4.5% 3) Alt Energy -3.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HUBB, OSK, LIFE, ESI, LFUS, RNGR, TIMB, BCS, TXT, VIV, XIFR, UPS, SLN, MAIR, NE, SEI, HRI, CARR, VCX, NBIS, TTMI, GLW, BRUN, SNDK, STRL, CVLT, SHAZ and AMKR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CARR 2) RSP 3) IP 4) CLX 5) ARRY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) SPWR 3) CAPR 4) STX 5) TZOO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XHB 3) BAI 4) XLV 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +5.5% 2) Medical Equipment +2.6% 3) Healthcare Providers +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ITRI, KNSA, MPLT, RGEN, FSUN, AGYS, IQV, TRU, AWI, ETON, ATHM, WPP, UL, SHW, BLFS, GLOB, WDAY, PESI, PLSE, CLS, ACN, ICLR, TRI, FTRE, SOLV, NIQ, FDS, ADBE, FICO, FELE, AXTA, CTS, DSGX, HCA, RYAN, LI, HPQ, NUE, EPAC, CRL, RCL, HAS, BF/B, TYL, SAP, IBM, VIA, IBM, NOW, OOMA, DBX, LBRT, INFY, BVS, CBZ, RNG, MTN, BRO, ACIC, ATAT, CALM, KO, MTN, CHKP, BA, PYPL, LBTYA, PEGA, STRA, FMNB, ZBH, NWBI, CNK, LECO, AVTR, GSK, BLK, OXM, AGNC, XYL, BOBS, KHC, XYL, CPRT, PNR, RYAAY, ABNB, TGLS, NOMD, PAYX, BUD, HLN, PAYX, NEXN, GIB, AWR, BIP, PM, CCXI, BUD, MDT, CNNE, TX and FG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GLNG 2) JCI 3) QGEN 4) CAPR 5) BCS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ITRI 2) RGEN 3) SHW 4) INCY 5) RCL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) SOXX 4) IGV 5) KRE

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APH)/1.18
• (ARCB)/2.26
• (BAND)/.36
• (BIIB)/2.96
• (BG)/1.97
• (CHEF)/.59
• (CLH)/2.81
• (EXP)/3.37
• (ETR)/1.01
• (FLEX)/.90
• (GRMN)/2.29
• (GNRC)/2.01
• (GD)/3.96
• (HUM)/7.26
• (JCI)/1.52
• (LHX)/2.80
• (MAS)/1.32
• (ODFL)/1.53
• (BTU)/-.38
• (PAG)/3.42
• (SMG)/2.48
• (SKHY)/4.79
• (SWK)/1.21
• (STRA)/1.80
• (UBS)/.88
• (VFC)/-.22
• (VRT)/1.22
• (VMC)/2.46
• (WING)/1.02 

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/2.91
• (ALGN)/2.62
• (ARM)/.40
• (BOOT)/1.69
• (CHRW)/1.53
• (CP)/1.24
• (CSL)/6.35
• (CMG)/.32
• (EQIX)/11.35
• (FLS)/.86
• (FTNT)/.75
• (FTAI)/1.38
• (HXL)/.57
• (LRCX)/1.69
• (META)/7.19
• (MGM)/.56
• (MSFT)/4.24
• (MOD)/1.30
• (MYRG)/2.62
• (ORLY)/.86
• (PPC)/.70
• (PBI)/.34
• (PSA)/4.25
• (QCOM)/2.24
• (HOOD)/.43
• (SIMO)/2.13
• (SFM)/1.34
• (SBUX)/.66
• (RGR)/.42
• (VKTX)/-1.23
• (WWD)/2.44 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +256,800 barrels versus a +2,010,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,021,000 barrels versus a +765,000 gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -55,000 barrels versus a +1,395,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a -.1% decline prior.  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 3.5-3.75%. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the International AIDS Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +1.2
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 64.0% of Issues Advancing, 33.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 +58.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$282.0M
  
• 160 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 60.8% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.6 +4.1

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 11.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 14.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 9.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 3.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 22.0% unch.
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 60.0% +13.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.6 -1.0%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 54.0 -3.0 points
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 468.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.84 -.8%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 143.4 -2.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.9 -1.2%
• Vix 18.0 -3.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +3.3%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• President Trump said Monday the US and Iran were engaged in diplomatic talks to end the Middle East conflict, but warned the two sides would return to fighting if negotiations didn’t yield a deal. 
• The number of software security flaws discovered in popular technology products in 2026 is on pace to roughly double the tally of vulnerabilities that surfaced in 2025 
• BlackRock wrapped up a $12.5 billion bond sale tied to a Meta data center project in Texas after a nearly week-long marketing process and a selloff in big tech debt. 
• Union Pacific and Norfolk submitted a revised merger application to regulators that they say offers greater protections to customers, a move by the railroads to help complete what stands to be the industry’s biggest-ever deal. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• Utility Profits In The Crosshairs Amid Affordability Concerns. 
• *JAPAN'S NIKKEI, SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI TUMBLE AS CHIP SHARES SLUMP.
• After some modest strength in recent days, bitcoin approaching key support level again.
• The cartoon "market" that is Korea is back at it. *SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI INDEX FALLS 6.1% TO 6,343.87. *KOREA EXCHANGE ACTIVATES SIDECAR TO HALT KOSDAQ PROGRAM SELLING.
• Anthropic maintains that it is entitled to train for free on all the world’s output, even if the author objects. But if a competitor trains on Anthropic’s output after paying for it, that is IP theft. The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
• The Left Is Using Kids As A Trojan Horse For Total Online Surveillance.
• Taxpayer Millions Couldn't Stop Seven Save A Lot Grocery Stores From Going Dark In Crime-Ridden Chicago.
• "Mitch McConnell" Pokes Head Out Of Shell With New 'Proof Of Life' Pic From Rehab.
• Putin Admits Escalation: Enemies Unable To Defeat Russia On Battlefield, Resort To 'Open Terrorism'.
• Renewables 'Can't Keep Up' With Data Center Pace. As Usual, The Left Wants Government To Step In....
• 'Close To An Inflection Point': Deutsche Bank Simplifies WTF Is Happening In Japan.
• Court Rules Illinois' In-State Tuition Benefits For Illegals 'Unconstitutional And Invalid'.
• Will The "Fat Lady" Finally Sing For Fauci?
• If Anthony Fauci lies before Congress on Wednesday, as he did in previous hearings, his preemptive pardon won’t cover him. 
• While Americans buried loved ones, Anthony Fauci was counting headlines that doted over him. Absolutely vile. 
• Stocks Sink Despite Hormuz Hopes As China Sparks Chipmaker Chunder Into Busy Week.

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: Apple reclaims its crown, SpaceX returns to Earth. 
• South Korean semiconductor shares tumbled on Tuesday, extending a rout in chipmakers after another weak session on Wall Street. SK Hynix plunged more than 10%, while Samsung Electronics fell over 8%. Other AI-linked names also came under heavy selling, with Samsung SDI dropping over 7%, LG Innotek sliding nearly 14%, Seoul Semiconductor falling about 6% and LG Chem losing more than 4%. 
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI company isn't advocating for ban of open-weight models.       
• So far, about 7 million children have been signed up, Bessent said.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after Dow posts back-to-back winning days: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cadence Design Systems, Rambus, Welltower and more.      

• @WallStEngine

• Citadel Securities expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday. The firm says markets may be underestimating the Fed’s hawkish shift and that a surprise hike would strengthen its inflation-fighting credibility. Interest-rate swaps currently price about a 40% chance of a hike this week, with a full hike priced in by September. Citadel says recent energy-price increases could tip the balance toward an immediate move.
• BlackRock $BLK has raised $12.5 billion of debt to fund $META's 1GW AI data center campus in El Paso, Texas. The 2048 notes priced 287.5 basis points over 10-year Treasuries and attracted about $20 billion in orders, only 1.6x the offering size. BlackRock-backed entities own 80% of the project and Meta owns 20%. The debt is supported by Meta’s lease commitments while remaining off Meta’s balance sheet. 
• Johnson & Johnson $JNJ has agreed to pay $5.5 billion to resolve claims that its talc products caused ovarian cancer. The proposed settlement requires participation from plaintiff firms representing at least 95% of pending state and federal claims. J&J maintains it would have prevailed in further litigation but says the agreement would bring the matter to a close. 
• CELESTICA $CLS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $4.70B (Est. $4.37B) ; +62% YoY. Adj. EPS: $2.54 (Est. $2.29) ; +83% YoY. Adjusted Operating Margin: 8.2%; +80 bps YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $20.5B (Est. $19.15B) ; raised from $19.0B. Adj. EPS: $11.30 (Est. $10.19) ; raised from $10.15. Adjusted Operating Margin: 8.4%; raised from 8.1%. Free Cash Flow: $600M; raised from $500M. 
• F5 $FFIV Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $865.0M (Est. $833.62M) ; +11% YoY. Adj. EPS: $4.73 (Est. $4.00) ; +14% YoY. Product Revenue: $462.8M; +19% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue Growth: ~9% to 10%; raised from 7% to 8% previously. Adj. EPS: $17.21-$17.33; raised from $16.25-$16.55. 
• CADENCE $CDNS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.58B (Est. $1.58B) ; +24% YoY. Adj. EPS: $2.11 (Est. $2.06) ; +28% YoY. Backlog: $8.1B; record backlog. Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 45.5%; +270 bps YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $6.26B-$6.34B (Est. $6.22B). Non-GAAP EPS: $8.05-$8.15 (Est. $7.99). Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 43.75% to 44.75%. Operating Cash Flow: ~$2B. 

• @MerengoFS

• Corning(GLW) Earnings preview highlights.
• Bloom Energy(BE) Earnings preview highlights. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 38.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
• Crude Oil 81.92/bbl. -.8% 
• Gold 4,106.20 USD/t oz. -.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.26 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.47 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.3 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.64% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-Escalation, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.4 +1.0% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.02 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.1 -1.9%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 63.25 -4.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.5
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.6 +.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -9.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.5 +5.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -3.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(134 of 500 reporting) +69.6% -5.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.40 +3.33:  Growth Rate +29.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 19.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.96% +26.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 919.40 +7.82: Growth Rate +77.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 18.4 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.8 euros/megawatt-hour -10.7%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4% +1.0 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.6% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 -13.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.1% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -840 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -56 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +188 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% net long