Tuesday, September 01, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @WallStEngine
  • CREDO $CRDO Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $479.0M (Est. $472M) ; +114.7% YoY. Adj. EPS: $1.20 (Est. $1.17). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 68.0%. Non-GAAP Net Income: $236.3M (Est. $230M) ; +140% YoY. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $525M-$535M (Est. $516M). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 67.0%-69.0%. GAAP Gross Margin: 62.9%-64.9%. Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: $100M-$105M. GAAP Operating Expenses: $199M-$204M.
  • FDA CRACKS DOWN ON COMPOUNDED GLP-1s. The FDA is warning telehealth firms and compounders over unapproved weight-loss drugs including semaglutide, tirzepatide and retatrutide. $HIMS.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%. 
  • Crude Oil 91.14/bbl. +1.0% 
  • Gold 4,346.0 USD/t oz. -1.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.27 -.10%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.20 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.0 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.81% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.44%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mideast War Escalation, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.8 +1.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.0 -.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .32 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.17 +4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.5 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.5 +1.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 52.5 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.5 +1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -.8
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.3 -9.9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.2 +4.0
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(486 of 500 reporting) +52.0% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 396.93 +.56:  Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +133.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 968.31 +1.70: Growth Rate +86.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.33 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 40.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.8 -.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 74.1 euros/megawatt-hour +6.1%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.3 unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.8% +20.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.80% +5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 57.7% (+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 42.8%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,570 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -129 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -40 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Cyber Security -4.0% 2) Software -3.4% 3) Road & Rail -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OCTV, AEM, EXPE, EXK, CAE, LINC, MDB, BN, NCLH, Q, EGO, OLLI, AYA, VCTR, GOLD, SHOE, BLDR, SYM, SA, REAX, ERO, AGX, CVLG, RMIX, BROS, WHR, DELL, ERAS, AFRM, SUNB, ADUR, LQDT, CRWD, GBX, AXON, SN, PURR and ENOV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NVS 2) CARR 3) GTLB 4) MUB 5) IHI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) INV 2) YSS 3) EQPT 4) NIO 5) BZAI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) GDX 2) IYW 3) DRAM 4) SOXX 5) ESML

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.8% 2) Agriculture +1.1% 3) Pharma +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FRVO, ARCT, MMED, KLRA, CRK, CBIO, MOVE, CLYM, LMB, NVAX, IPI, NVS, STDN, MRNA, HP, DUOL, EC, VIST, VIR, PBR, PLSE, VIR, BWXT, SGRY, JAN, HLX, CNH, HWM, HLF, BP, SPGI, WIX, MIR and PBF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GPRO 2) ALMS 3) FRVO 4) GTLB 5) PRMW 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MMED 2) DUOL 3) FRVO 4) MDT 5) LTC 
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLY 2) XLE 3) XLV 4) XLI 5) KRE
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BF/B)/.37
  • (GIII)/.23
  • (OLLI)/1.12 
After the Close: 
  • (AGX)/2.64
  • (AVGO)/3.22
  • (AI)/-.26
  • (FIVE)/1.40
  • (HPE)/.93
  • (NTAP)/2.12
  • (WOOF)/.07
  • (PVH)/3.08
  • (SNOW)/.45 
Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for Aug. is estimated to rise to 47K versus 40K in July. 

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for July is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.3% decline in June.
  • Factory Orders Ex Trans for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.4% decline in June.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for July. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -368,000 barrels versus a +95,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,780,000 barrels versus a -2,536,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -780,000 barrels versus a -2,228,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.05% versus a +.2% gain prior.  

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (CASY) annual meeting and the (CHKP) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 -2.0
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 37.7% of Issues Advancing, 60.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .64 -26.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$125.7M
  • 35 New 52-Week Highs, 105 New Lows
  • 56.4% (-2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -1.1
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30th 3.0% unch.
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 3.0% unch.
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30th 1.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 16.0% unch.
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30th 21.0% +1.0 percentage point
Other
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 130.8 +.7%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 72.0 +14.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 431.75 +1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 269.1 -1.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 147.0 -1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.2 -18.9%
  • Vix 18.5% +3.6%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +4.8%