Bloomberg:
- Israeli forces began evacuating the last Gaza Strip settlement, clearing the way for a military pullout and a handover of the territory held since 1967 to the Palestinians.
- China National Petroleum, the nation’s biggest oil company, agreed to buy PetroKazakhstan for $4.8 billion, topping a bid by an Indian producer and securing supplies for the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Permira Advisers Ltd. agreed to buy SBS Broadcasting SA, Europe’s second-largest television broadcaster, for about $2.1 billion to tap growth in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.
- Shares of OSI Pharmaceuticals fell 12% after the company agreed to pay $935 million for Eyetech Pharmaceuticals, acquiring an eye treatment that may have a more potent rival by 2007.
- Google introduced a tool that automatically displays Web content such as news and weather on users’ computer screens, posing a threat to products from Microsoft and Yahoo!.
- Crude oil is rising above $66/bbl. in NY after a power failure across Iraq forced the suspension of exports from the country’s southern terminals.
- Maytag accepted a sweetened $1.68 billion offer from Whirlpool, ending a bidding contest with Ripplewood Holdings LLC and creating the world’s largest appliance maker.
- The US dollar is falling against the yen after opinion polls showed increasing approval for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi before next month’s election and as Japanese stock indices climbed to a four-year high.
Wall Street Journal:
- Reformists at China’s state-run Central Huijin Investment Co. and the central bank are in a struggle for control of the country’s financial system with the agencies that have traditionally controlled the banks.
- The jury ruling Friday that Merck must pay $253 million for the death of a Vioxx user may prompt the drug industry to fundamentally rethink when and how it brings new drugs to market.
- The NY Merc, the world’s largest energy-futures exchange, may shift most of its electronic-trading operations to the Chicago Merc.
- Titanium Metals vice chairman Harold Simmons has been buying stock in the company even as short-sellers maintain bets that the stock will drop.
- US mutual funds that specialize in small-cap stocks are increasingly turning away would-be investors.
NY Times:
- Iraqi leaders were near a constitutional charter agreement yesterday.
Washington Post:
- The US Veterans Affairs Department has improved its health care system over the last decade and now some see it as a model.
NY Post:
- Motorola wireless phones produce the most potentially cancer-causing emissions when used without headsets among 381 models researched by NY City Councilwoman Eva Moskowitz.
Monday, August 22, 2005
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said August sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise for the sixth week in a row.
- Northwest Airlines mechanics, saying they’d rather see the carrier go bankrupt than yield to demand for job cuts, went on strike.
- The US dollar is poised for a second consecutive week of gains against the euro amid rising interest rates and the most bullish trader sentiment since June 24, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- US Treasuries are benefiting from a rising dollar and yields that are higher than on comparable German, Canadian and Japanese government bonds.
- US companies, which have been reluctant to part with their mountain of cash, may start spending more of it – and spur the economy in the process.
- North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il may give up the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in return for security guarantees, energy and economic aid.
Barron’s:
- KFx says its most recent effort to create a coal-drying process that improve the energy content of western US coal will work, and shareholders are sitting tight and hoping the company is right.
New York Times:
- The prices of big-screen televisions are likely to drop further in coming months, citing industry analysts.
- At least 10 of more than three dozen members of the Bancroft family, which controls Dow Jones, are “unhappy” about the performance of the company’s management.
- Some investment advisers are recommending caution of energy stocks, forecasting that record-high crude oil prices may drop.
- Real estate investment trusts focused on categories as narrow as car dealerships, movie theaters and college dormitories are getting increased attention from institutional investors.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- California’s unemployment rate last month fell to 5.1% from 5.4% in June.
- California owners of hybrid-electric cars are rushing to get state permits that let them drive without passengers in freeway carpool lanes, with about 1,000 people applying per day.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- European drug companies are focusing on the US because of its pool of scientists, funding for research, and market without price controls.
Washington Post:
- Russian’s crumbling biological research laboratories may be vulnerable to penetration by terrorists and criminal gangs who could unleash the diseases that the system was built to combat.
- The Washington Redskins football team has become one of the most profitable professional sports franchises in the US since marketing executive Daniel Snyder bought the team in 1999.
Oil & Gas Journal:
- US oil demand fell in July by the greatest amount in 3 1/2 years.
Reuters:
- Denmark’s Grundfos A/S said yesterday that two employees paid bribes to Iraqi authorities under the UN/Iraq oil-for-food program.
London’s Sunday Times:
- The families of up to 2,000 UK users of Vioxx, a painkiller owned by drug-maker Merck, may sue the company in the US.
- Google and Yahoo! may seek to buy Trader Classified Media NV, the publisher of Canada’s Auto Trader, to increase customers.
the Business:
- Dow Jones’ controlling owner, the Bancroft family, has received three takeover bids.
Sunday Morning Post:
- Donald Trump plans to have a Chinese version of his US reality television program “The Apprentice.”
Sunday Telegraph:
- Iran is supplying bombs triggered by an infrared beam to insurgents in Iraq.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on PG.
- Had negative comments on SINA.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAKE.
- Reiterated Underperform on HRB.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
HNZ/.49
Upcoming Splits
HRB 2-for-1
Economic Releases
None of note
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said August sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise for the sixth week in a row.
- Northwest Airlines mechanics, saying they’d rather see the carrier go bankrupt than yield to demand for job cuts, went on strike.
- The US dollar is poised for a second consecutive week of gains against the euro amid rising interest rates and the most bullish trader sentiment since June 24, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- US Treasuries are benefiting from a rising dollar and yields that are higher than on comparable German, Canadian and Japanese government bonds.
- US companies, which have been reluctant to part with their mountain of cash, may start spending more of it – and spur the economy in the process.
- North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il may give up the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in return for security guarantees, energy and economic aid.
Barron’s:
- KFx says its most recent effort to create a coal-drying process that improve the energy content of western US coal will work, and shareholders are sitting tight and hoping the company is right.
New York Times:
- The prices of big-screen televisions are likely to drop further in coming months, citing industry analysts.
- At least 10 of more than three dozen members of the Bancroft family, which controls Dow Jones, are “unhappy” about the performance of the company’s management.
- Some investment advisers are recommending caution of energy stocks, forecasting that record-high crude oil prices may drop.
- Real estate investment trusts focused on categories as narrow as car dealerships, movie theaters and college dormitories are getting increased attention from institutional investors.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- California’s unemployment rate last month fell to 5.1% from 5.4% in June.
- California owners of hybrid-electric cars are rushing to get state permits that let them drive without passengers in freeway carpool lanes, with about 1,000 people applying per day.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- European drug companies are focusing on the US because of its pool of scientists, funding for research, and market without price controls.
Washington Post:
- Russian’s crumbling biological research laboratories may be vulnerable to penetration by terrorists and criminal gangs who could unleash the diseases that the system was built to combat.
- The Washington Redskins football team has become one of the most profitable professional sports franchises in the US since marketing executive Daniel Snyder bought the team in 1999.
Oil & Gas Journal:
- US oil demand fell in July by the greatest amount in 3 1/2 years.
Reuters:
- Denmark’s Grundfos A/S said yesterday that two employees paid bribes to Iraqi authorities under the UN/Iraq oil-for-food program.
London’s Sunday Times:
- The families of up to 2,000 UK users of Vioxx, a painkiller owned by drug-maker Merck, may sue the company in the US.
- Google and Yahoo! may seek to buy Trader Classified Media NV, the publisher of Canada’s Auto Trader, to increase customers.
the Business:
- Dow Jones’ controlling owner, the Bancroft family, has received three takeover bids.
Sunday Morning Post:
- Donald Trump plans to have a Chinese version of his US reality television program “The Apprentice.”
Sunday Telegraph:
- Iran is supplying bombs triggered by an infrared beam to insurgents in Iraq.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on PG.
- Had negative comments on SINA.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAKE.
- Reiterated Underperform on HRB.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
HNZ/.49
Upcoming Splits
HRB 2-for-1
Economic Releases
None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher, boosted by gains in Asia. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Friday, August 19, 2005
***Alert***
I will be unable to blog much this weekend due to a scheduling conflict. Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day Even as Oil and Rates Rise
Indices
S&P 500 1,221.79 +.23%
DJIA 10,589.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 +.13%
Russell 2000 652.82 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,165.93 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 585.35 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 632.03 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.15 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.91 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.90 +.27%
Transports 3,711.68 +.02%
Utilities 393.94 +.64%
Put/Call 1.14 +14.0%
NYSE Arms .97 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 -2.31%
ISE Sentiment 147.00 -6.96%
US Dollar 88.56 unch.
CRB 314.27 +.81%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.70 +2.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 9.10 +1.98%
Heating Oil 183.50 +2.49%
Gold 442.10 -.58%
Base Metals 129.03 +.23%
Copper 161.05 +.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.78%
Energy +1.61%
Networking +1.07%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.23%
Tobacco -.41%
Airlines -.46%
S&P 500 1,221.79 +.23%
DJIA 10,589.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 +.13%
Russell 2000 652.82 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,165.93 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 585.35 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 632.03 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.15 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.91 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.90 +.27%
Transports 3,711.68 +.02%
Utilities 393.94 +.64%
Put/Call 1.14 +14.0%
NYSE Arms .97 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 -2.31%
ISE Sentiment 147.00 -6.96%
US Dollar 88.56 unch.
CRB 314.27 +.81%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.70 +2.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 9.10 +1.98%
Heating Oil 183.50 +2.49%
Gold 442.10 -.58%
Base Metals 129.03 +.23%
Copper 161.05 +.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.78%
Energy +1.61%
Networking +1.07%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.23%
Tobacco -.41%
Airlines -.46%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Medical and Semiconductor longs. I exited my IWM and QQQQ trading shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive, considering the rise in energy prices and long-term rates. Earlier today on CNBC, T. Boone Pickens said he is keeping a very close eye on fourth-quarter oil demand. This is what I hear almost every energy trader say. I continue to believe 4Q U.S. and Chinese oil demand growth estimates are substantially too high. As terrorism and hurricane fears peak in September and it becomes glaringly obvious that oil supplies are overwhelming demand, an accelerated downward move in energy prices should occur as traders "sell the news." I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short covering.
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