Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Morgan Stanley(MS) said investors should bet the US dollar will rise against the Australian dollar and overcome its recent economic-related weakness. Dollar “valuations already reflect a lot of bad news,” wrote Morgan Stanley currency strategists Sophia Drossos and Yilin Nie in New York in a note to clients today. “While the possibility for further weakness remains, the bulk of depreciation is behind us.”
- The yen declined to a record low against the euro as traders took advantage of the lowest borrowing costs among major economies to buy higher-yielding currencies.
- In the end, it was Segolene Royal who lost her cool. The French Socialist presidential candidate raised her voice and accused her opponent Nicolas Sarkozy of “immorality” for presenting himself as a defender of handicapped children.
- Gold traded near a three-week low in Asia amid speculation physical demand from India will slow in the months ahead. India uses more gold than the US and China combined.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s prospects of staying in office are fading after Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni offered herself as a candidate to lead their Kadima Party, allowing the ruling coalition to retain power.
- China’s property developers invested 22% more in projects last year, citing the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The surge in investment last year came even as China’s government tried to cool the real-estate market to prevent a price bubble.
- Chris de Lavigne, global vice president of consulting at Frost & Sullivan, says the ability to make ethanol from waster “is here” now.

Wall Street Journal:
- The United Auto Workers union is preparing a final counteroffer to wage and benefit cuts proposed by bankrupt auto supplier Delphi Corp.
- PepsiCo Inc.(PEP) is starting a new advertising campaign to boost sales of Diet Pepsi as it competes with Coca-Cola’s(KO) Diet Coke.

Dow Jones:
- Dow Jones’(DJ) board won’t act on News Corp.’s $5 billion takeover bid. 52% of shareholders with voting power in the company oppose the takeover, citing a survey of the company’s controlling family, the Bancrofts.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (SYMC), target $22.
- Reiterated Buy on (WXS), target $38.
- Reiterated Buy on (S), target $25.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANDW)/.08
- (BEBE)/.13
- (CVC)/-.11
- (ELY)/.46
- (CECO)/.35
- (CBS)/.32
- (CELG)/.20
- (CKP)/.08
- (CHK)/.78
- (CXW)/.47
- (CROX)/.48
- (DF)/.45
- (DNB)/.96
- (EDS)/.21
- (EL)/.46
- (FAF)/.78
- (FSLR)/.00
- (GMST)/.05
- (GM)/.83
- (IACI)/.32
- (IP)/.40
- (IFF)/.66
- (ITG)/.54
- (JSDA)/.03
- (LF)/-.40
- (CLI)/.25
- (MSO)/-.17
- (MDR)/.75
- (MGM)/.63
- (MORN)/.36
- (NBR)/.85
- (NBL)/.99
- (OMX)/.91
- (PTEN)/.71
- (PPL)/.70
- (PSA)/1.12
- (QLGC)/.23
- (SBUX)/.19
- (STRA)/1.29
- (TK)/1.07
- (TKLC)/-.04
- (TSO)/1.88
- (TIE)/.37
- (WTW)/.63
- (WMB)/.33
- (WMS)/.34

Upcoming Splits
- (AZZ) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise .7% versus a 1.6% gain in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 3.8% versus a 6.6% gain in 4Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 325K versus 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2550K versus 2594K prior.

10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus a reading of 52.4 in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by utility and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

DJIA Hits Another All-Time High, S&P 500 at 6-year High on Positive Earnings, Better Economic Data, Buyout Speculation

Indices
S&P 500 1,495.92 +.65%
DJIA 13,211.88 +.58%
NASDAQ 2,557.84 +1.04%
Russell 2000 828.46 +1.50%
Wilshire 5000 15,066.46 +.78%
Russell 1000 Growth 591.28 +.82%
Russell 1000 Value 859.03 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 738.13 +.43%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,033.17 +1.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 601.17 +.84%
Transports 5,086.14 +1.03%
Utilities 527.27 +.52%
MSCI Emerging Markets 123.0 +1.03%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .79 -29.46%
NYSE Arms .63 -32.66%
Volatility(VIX) 13.08 -3.18%
ISE Sentiment 122.0 +7.02%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.50 -1.40%
Reformulated Gasoline 222.25 -.99%
Natural Gas 7.72 +.06%
Heating Oil 184.85 -1.83%
Gold 675.40 -.28%
Base Metals 274.82 +.92%
Copper 363.25 -.06%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.64% unch.
US Dollar 81.76 +.20%
CRB Index 310.52 -.34%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +1.79%
HMOs +1.76%
Gaming +1.75%

Lagging Sectors
Foods +.37%
Hospitals +.24%
Oil Tankers -.70%

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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:
- Rated (CNET) Buy, target $11.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rallied and the S&P 500 climbed to a six-year high, propelled by earnings that topped analysts’ forecasts at MasterCard Inc.(MA) and Time Warner(TWX).
- The US Energy Dept. has postponed plans to buy as much as 4 million barrels of crude oil for the nation’s emergency reserve until after the peak summer driving season.
- Symantec Corp.(SYMC) said fourth-quarter profit fell 49% as sales growth slackened to its slowest pace since 2000. The shares surged 6% after the earnings topped analysts’ estimates.
- Consuming more than 14 alcoholic drinks a week may be linked to a decrease in brain size, a potential sign of mental decline, according to a study.
- The US asked Arab countries to pres Sunni Muslims in Iraq to stop fighting the Shiite-led government, a senior State Dept. official said today on the eve of an international conference for Iraq.
- The House of Representatives failed to override President Bush’s veto of a war-funding measure that includes a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq, spurring new negotiations to find a compromise.
- JDS Uniphase(JDSU) posted a third-quarter loss because of increased stock-option expenses. The shares fell 8% after the company forecast sales that trailed analysts’ estimates.

Star-Ledger:
- James McGreevey, the New Jersey governor who quit after saying he’d had an affair with a male employee, is taking steps to become an Episcopal priest.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs, Medical longs, Networking longs and Semi longs. I didn’t trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. Small caps outperformed substantially, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.5%. With all the talk of how only large-cap multinationals are rising, it is interesting to note that the Morgan Stanley Multinational Index (NFT) is only 4.5% higher year-to-date. The best-performing style this year is mid-cap growth -- Russell Mid-cap Growth Index (RDG) -- which is already 10% higher year-to-date. Moreover, the average stock -- Value Line Geometric Index (VGY) -- is 7.3% higher year-to-date. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line just hit an all-time high last week. This rally has been very powerful and broad-based. Sugar has continued its collapse since February of last year, falling 54%. At its peak, many were saying the commodity was the "new oil." I suspect oil will eventually become the new sugar. The Goldman Sachs Agricultural Commodity Index is down 8.9%, just since February of this year. Despite today's better-than-expected economic data, the 10-year yield was stable at 4.64%. The Financial Times reported today that China's pollution problem is rapidly worsening on their soaring investments in energy-intensive industries. According to the FT, China now accounts for almost half of the world's flat glass and cement production, more than one-a third of steel output and 28% of global aluminum production. In my opinion, China is building for the sake of building, such as the world's largest mall, to promote the appearance of even more exceptional growth than would otherwise be the case. This is giving a false sense of demand for most of the world's commodities. This is the main reason why I believe long-term interest rates remain exceptionally low. I continue to believe when the manias for emerging markets and commodities end, the mild bout of inflation we have experienced will turn into a mild bout of deflation. The iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) remains a core long position for me.

DJIA Surging to Another All-Time High on Falling Energy Prices, Positive Economic Data and Buyout Speculation

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I covered my remaining (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning and added to a few existing longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is heavy. Theflyonthewall.com is pointing to a story on Looprumers.com that says Apple's(AAPL) iPhone could gain as much as 6% of the U.S. mobile market by next year. This would surpass Windows Mobile's share. This is quite a different prediction than Steve Ballmer recently made that the iPhone has "no chance." I am quite sure that those that have a vested interest in seeing the product fail will attempt to paint a negative picture upon release, however I continue to believe Apple's future has never looked brighter. The iPhone will bring in many new customers to the stores that have never owned an Apple product. I suspect the "halo effect," which began with the iPod, will gain significant traction with the release of the iPhone. Apple Computer remains my second-largest long position, behind Google Inc.(GOOG). I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as positive earnings reports, short-covering, falling energy prices and buyout speculation offset profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is falling $.67/bbl. after an EIA report showed that refiners increased production and gasoline supplies fell less than estimates.
- Iraq, the site of the world’s third-largest oil reserves, will repair its northern pipeline and start exporting crude through it sometime in the third quarter, the country’s oil minister said.
- Saudi Arabia, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves, may not need to increase its oil-production capacity after 2009, the country’s oil minister said, because conservation and alternative energy sources could curb the consumption of oil.
- Sugar is falling again in NY, resuming a yearlong decline, on speculation that rising global production will exceed demand. Prices have plunged 54% since February of this year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) intensified a campaign to promote Open XML to counter attempts in several states to adopt OpenDocument Format promoted by Apple Inc.(AAPL), IBM(IBM), Sun Microsystems(SUNW), and Google Inc.(GOOG).
- Cisco Systems(CSCO), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Tyco Intl.(TYC) and other companies have turned to fixed billing from law firms including Fenwick & West to cut legal costs.
- Affiliated Managers Group(AMG) probably did its shareholders a favor when it bought as much as a quarter of AQR Capital Management LLC, a hedge-fund firm, two years ago. AQR’s assets have almost tripled since the fourth quarter of 2004 and some analysts say the firm may be contemplating an IPO.

NY Times:
- Delta Air(DALW), which emerged from bankruptcy protection Monday, hired a NY ad agency to develop $10 million worth of commercials to lure customers.

CNBC:
- Cablevision Systems Corp.s(CVC) board approved the sale of the company to the Dolan family for $36.26 a share.

Reuters:
- Clayton Dubilier & Rice and KKR will buy Royal Ahold NV’s US Foodservice unit for more than $6 billion.

Federal Reserve Bank of NY:
- Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998.

Financial Times:
- A surge in investments in energy-intensive heavy industries is worsening pollution in China, citing a study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “Huge investment” in steel, aluminum, cement and other plants has exacerbated the country’s energy use and emission of greenhouse gases. China now accounts for almost half of the world’s flat glass and cement production, more than a third of steel output and 28% of aluminum.
- NYSE Euronext(NYX) could still bid for the International Stock Exchange(ISE), noting that NYSE, which operates the New York Stock Exchange, lined up $3 billion in financing in the weeks before Eurex AG completed its arrangements to buy the ISE.

Toronto Globe and Mail:
- Peter MacKay, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, said he will investigate allegations that almost half the foreign spies operating in the country are working on behalf of China.

Factory Orders Surge

- Factory Orders for March rose 3.1% versus estimates of a 2.2% gain and an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Orders placed with US factories rose more than forecast in March, the most in a year, reinforcing signs in the past week that business investment was on the mend going into the second quarter, Bloomberg said. Excluding transportation equipment, bookings increased 1.9%. Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a gauge of future business investment, surged 4.8% versus a 2.4% decline the prior month. Bookings for automobiles rose 3.8% versus a .2% increase the prior month. After a -5.7% decline in January, factory orders have now had their largest two-month turnaround since 1970. I continue to believe manufacturing will add to economic growth this quarter after substantial inventory de-stocking helped pressure overall economic growth in 1Q.

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