- Jan Hatzius, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs Group, said another US economist stimulus plan is likely because of a probable4 rise in unemployment, citing an interview. A three-year program funded with about $250 billion would be about right, Hatzius said, adding that the chances of having another program are about “60 to 40.” A dip in the July jobless rate to 9.4% is temporary and the US can expect an unemployment rate of more than 10% by the end of 2010, Hatzius said. Gross domestic product will expand about 3% in the second half before slowing to 2% by mid-2010 and 1.5% by the end of next year, he said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's: - Made positive comments on (ATVI) and (EXPD).
- Made negative comments on (VLO), (SUN), (AIG) and (TSO).
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on avg.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 134.50 -.50 basis point.
S&P 500 futures -.28%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.
- The Chicago Purchasing Manager for August is estimated to rise to 48.0 versus 43.4 in July.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The NAPM-Milwaukee report, Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Bloomberg FCI Monthly and the Lazard Retail & Apparel conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and shipping stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear, short-covering, technical buying and investment manager performance anxiety.My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Indices S&P 500 1,028.93 +.27%
DJIA 9,544.20 +.40%
NASDAQ 2,028.77 +.39%
Russell 2000 579.86 -.28%
Wilshire 5000 10,491.53 +.27%
Russell 1000 Growth 450.19 +.11%
Russell 1000 Value 532.74 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 624.92 +1.88%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 718.85 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 509.34 +.77%
Transports 3,723.29 -1.18%
Utilities 377.08 -.99%
MSCI Emerging Markets 36.08 -.10%
ABC Consumer Confidence -45 +1 point
Weekly Retail Sales -4.40% unch.
Nationwide Gas $2.61/gallon -.02/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 16.0% below normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,421 -1.90%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%
Rail Freight Carloads 193,207 -.15%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 69.13 -.44%
Best Performing Style Mid-Cap Value +1.03%
Worst Performing Style Small-Cap Growth -.39%
Leading Sectors Disk Drives +6.54%
Computer Hardware +3.23%