BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Financial longs, Biotech longs and Emerging Market shorts. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above-average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -1.91% and is above-average at 24.09. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly below average at 133.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.06. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.18 at its intraday peak, and is currently .76. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +5.33% to 77.40 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +3.62% to 97.09 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -1 basis point to 18 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th, 2008. The 2-year swap spread is falling -13.45% to 24.94 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 10 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -2 basis points to 2.31%, which is down -34 basis points since July 7th, 2008. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is unch. today. Emerging market and cyclical stocks are underperforming today. Credit default swap indices are surging again.The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is +10.87% to 87.30 bps.On the positive side, Oil Tanker, Semi, Wireless, Bank, I-Bank, Biotech, Insurance, REIT and Education shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+ today. Market leading stocks are outperforming.Considering the equity declines overseas, sovereign debt concerns, weaker economic data, Geithner’s testimony and political apprehension ahead of tonight’s SOTU address, today’s reversal is impressive.(XLF) trades well today and (AAPL) is rising, which is unusual on a major product announcement day.If the President’s speech tonight isn’t too negative towards business, I stocks will build on today’s gains tomorrow.Nikkei futures indicate an +103 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +33 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, bargain hunting and tech sector optimism.
- Expectations for Stocks Plunge at 23-Year High, Survey Says.The following are results from Investors Intelligence’s analysis of investment newsletters for Jan. 20 through yesterday.% Bulls 40.0 this week versus 52.2% last week.% Bears 23.3 this week versus 18.9% last week.Those expecting 10% decline 36.7% versus 28.9% last week.The percentage expecting a correction is the highest since November 1986.
- Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is confident Islamic nations will one day watch the destruction of arch-foe Israel, his website Wednesday quoted him as saying. Khamenei made the remark during a meeting with Mauritanian President Mohammed Ould Abdel Aziz in Tehran, the website said. The all-powerful Iranian leader also said that Israel's continued "pressure to erase Palestine from the world of Islamic nations" will fail. Surely, the day will come when the nations of the region will witness the destruction of the Zionist regime... when the destruction happens will depend on how the Islamic nations approach the issue," Khamenei told Aziz, who arrived in Tehran on Monday. Relations between the two nations have deteriorated particularly under Ahmadinejad who has often said that Israel is "doomed to be wiped off the map" and has termed the Holocaust a "myth".
Les Echos:
- Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro-area finance ministers, told French daily Les Echos that divergences in the euro zone, which increased during the financial crisis, could threaten the cohesion of the area. He also said that the Chinese yuan and the US dollar are undervalued and that the euro is overvalued.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index may fall another 12%, doubling its two-week retreat, after the measure slid below its average close of the past 200 days, according to Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. The index may now plunge to as low as 10,000, a 12% drop, according to Michael Shaoul, the chief executive officer at the New York-based brokerage. The market's drop "has now developed into straightforward liquidation that looks set to continue," Shaoul wrote. "Many participants will want to lighten holdings in advance of the multi-day closure of local markets" for the Chinese New Year on Feb. 14, he wrote.
- Transcript:ECB President Trichet. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet recently spoke to The Wall Street Journal's Brian Blackstone and Matthew Karnitschnig at his Frankfurt office about the economy and the World Economic Forum meeting Davos, which starts Wednesday. Below is an edited transcript.
- Big Labor’s top legislative priority, a bill creating an easier way to organize workers, is essentially dead – and its own members were instrumental in killing it. The victory of Republican Scott Brown’s in last week’s Massachusetts Senate special election that deprived Democrats of a filibuster-proof majority is not only bad news for health care. It also means that Republicans will be able to block the Employee Free Choice Act from coming to the Senate floor for a vote. Whether their rank-and-file lost patience or simply didn’t realize the stakes, the decision of most union members in Massachusetts to back Brown rather than Coakley helped put the last nail in a legislative effort that was already on life support.
- The Hole In The EPA's Ozone Claims. To the EPA, "safe" is a constantly moving target--and that's the way it likes it. Always something new to regulate, always a new hobgoblin from which to save us. Take the agency's proposal to yet again lower allowable ozone levels. It's another one of those win-win regulations for which the EPA is famous, supposedly saving both lives and money. But its assertions collapse when you examine the science on which they're allegedly based.
- New Home Sales for December are estimated to rise to 366K versus 355K in November.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,580,000 barrels versus a -471,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +950,000 barrels versus a +3,950,000 barrel build the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by -1,900,000 barrels versus a -3,263,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to fall by -.1% versus a -2.92% decline the prior week.
2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Greenlee speaking, Geithner's Testimony Before House, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Treasury's 5-Year Note Auction, (KED) analyst day and the Jefferies Healthcare Services Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.