Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (-.41%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.38% 2) Banks -1.10% 3) I-Banks -.80%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CWEI, TOT, GSK, PANL, SMTC, UEIC, CISG, SHPGY, FOSL, VRTU, BOBE, NEOG, VLCCF, AZPN, LABL, SIVB, RRD and IAI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ERTS 2) AMTD 3) ACN 4) CF 5) EWJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AEO 2) EMR 3) SCHW 4) AIG 5) INTC
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth (+.09%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers +2.89% 2) Homebuilders +2.29% 3) Gold & Silver +1.19%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RIC, DLLR, OVTI, JVA, JDSU, CBOU, TZOO, BKS, FDO, CLGX, LPS and DG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KBH 2) CEDC 3) DNR 4) USG 5) CBOU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TOL 2) JNY 3) ALKS 4) MIPS 5) ESV
Charts:

Monday, August 29, 2011

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Companies Stop Selling Bonds as Costs Jump by 40%: Euro Credit. Company bond sales have ground to a halt in Europe, with August poised to end without a single offering as the sovereign debt crisis drives borrowing costs up by 40 percent. “When spreads are moving so quickly, it’s very difficult to see clearly how to price new issues,” said Olivier Casanova, the head of financing and treasury at PSA Peugeot Citroen in Paris, which last sold bonds in euros on June 15. “Conditions are very volatile.” The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government securities has surged to a two-year high of 186 basis points from 134 at the end of July, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Yield premiums are climbing as speculation Greece may default forces the European Central Bank to buy Spanish and Italian bonds, and as second-quarter euro- area growth slowed to the worst since the region emerged from recession in 2009. Gauges of European company creditworthiness are headed for their worst month ever. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 40 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings is up 274 basis points so far in August, climbing to 714 basis points. That compares with a jump of 207 in October 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
  • On Company Taxes, U.S. Should Follow World Down: Ramesh Ponnuru. Nations don’t compete with one another the way companies do. Pepsi’s gain is almost always Coca-Cola’s loss, but the same doesn’t always, or even often, hold true for national economies. Governments do compete in some respects: They want to attract capital investment to their countries, for example, to provide more jobs, higher wages and better products and services to their people. That competition offers a reason for optimism that the U.S. Congress will eventually reform our inefficient, investment-destroying corporate taxes.
  • Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong may slump as much as 19% by year-end in a "worst-case" scenario as an order to widen the base of required reserves threatens non-bank lenders, BNP Paribas SA said. Tightening measures have driven the lending rate in the "shadow banking system" from the 13%-17% annual range between 2003 and 2010 to around 26% in the first half of this year, Dorris Chen and Kathryn Ding, analysts at BNP paribas, wrote in a report, citing the rate in the central bank monitored alternative lending market. "The People's Bank of China's new rules broadening the base of required reserve is an incremental threat to liquidity given that acceptance bills and letters of credit are important sources of funding for many alternative lenders and private small and medium enterprises," they wrote.
Wall Street Journal:
  • German Debate on Bailout Fund Is Test for Merkel. German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces growing resistance within her ruling coalition over expanding the powers of the euro zone's bailout fund, forcing a domestic political debate she will have to win to preserve confidence in her leadership. At issue is securing German parliamentary approval for a deal Ms. Merkel brokered with other European leaders in July to keep the debt crisis from spinning out of control. Part of the agreement involves vesting the bailout fund with powers that were previously the prerogative of national parliaments. Conservative opponents of the deal worry it will open the door to relinquishing more sovereignty to the European Union. Winning a majority of votes from within Ms. Merkel's center-right coalition was seen as relatively smooth sailing after reaching the hard-fought deal, which also included a second bailout for Greece. But in recent days, more dissenters have emerged from the coalition, now putting a sure victory in doubt. The shift reflects the pressure many rank-and-file conservative German politicians face as they try to justify the recent string of bailouts for Greece and other countries to an increasingly skeptical electorate.
  • Irene's Floods Prove Deadly as Water Continues to Rise. Hurricane Irene never packed the catastrophic winds of more famous tropical storms, but by the time its remnants finally blew into Canada Monday, it had proved to be a slow killer, leaving behind a vast swath of shattered communities and dozens of fatalities.
  • Tally of Damages Put at $12 Billion, but That Number Could Yet Rise. The economic damage wrought by Hurricane Irene—everything from washed-out roads to lost hotel bookings—could hit $12 billion or more.
  • NLRB Gets New Chairman, Mark Pearce. The National Labor Relations Board has a new chairman: Mark Pearce, a Democrat. But business groups and Republicans are expecting more of the same from the agency they say favors unions over employers.
  • Pimco's Gross Has 'Lost Sleep' Over Bad Bets. In recent weeks, Pacific Investment Management Co. founder Bill Gross says he has "lost sleep" over an ill-timed bet on Treasurys. During an Aug. 16 interview at Pimco's Newport Beach, Calif., headquarters, Mr. Gross, manager of Pimco's Total Return Fund, the world's biggest bond fund, acknowledged that his decision to sell all of the fund's Treasury holdings in February, and then use derivatives to place wagers against government-related bonds in March, was a "mistake."
  • Europeans Appear Set to Pause Rate Rises. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the ECB may reconsider its longstanding warnings about inflation, potentially setting the stage for a lengthy pause in its rate-increase cycle. In testimony to the European Parliament, Mr. Trichet also played down the risks of a renewed recession in the euro bloc, saying he expects growth in the common-currency area to continue at a "modest pace." While euro-zone inflation is likely to remain above the bank's 2% target in the months ahead, "risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments are under study in the context of the ECB staff projections that will be released [in] early September," Mr. Trichet said. Mr. Trichet avoided code words the ECB often employs to signal that it is worried about inflation or that interest-rate rises are on the horizon.
  • Czech Premier Takes new Dig at Euro Zone. The Czech Republic's euro-skeptic leadership is taking some new swipes at the neighboring single-currency zone, which is struggling to quell internal dissension about how to deal with its weaker members' debt woes. On Monday, Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas told a group of Czech diplomats: "We agreed to join a [monetary] union, not a transfer union or debt union." He went on to say that an independent currency was critical to the country's economic health.
CNBC:
  • Hedge Funds Burned by August Market Heat. Many of the world’s largest hedge funds have been left nursing billions of dollars in losses following the industry’s most brutal month since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Falling equity markets worldwide have caught hedge fund managers off-guard, leading to significant losses as portfolios declined in value and managers sold holdings, crystallizing losses. According to provisional estimates from consultancy Hedge Fund Research, the average hedge fund has lost 4.1 percent during August – making the month the industry’s fourth worst ever.
Business Insider:
  • The Rising Mismatch In Chinese Credit Markets. There is a mismatch in the credit market in China that is becoming increasingly pronounced. On the one hand, many privately owned Chinese companies; especially manufacturing and industrial companies are in dire need for capital to cover their short term financing needs and to ramp up further expansions. On the other hand, the domestic Chinese capital markets, dominated by large state owned banks, have been rather unresponsive to such demands.
  • Money Game Tip of the Day: Commodities Offer Very Poor Real Returns. (graph)
Zero Hedge:
IBD:
Courier-Journal.com:
PIMCO:
Rasmussen Reports:
Financial Times:
  • IASB Criticises Greek Debt Writedowns. Some European financial institutions should have taken bigger losses on their Greek government bond holdings in recent results announcements, according to the body that sets their accounting rules. In a private letter sent to the European Securities and Markets Authority, the European Union’s market regulator, the International Accounting Standards Board criticised the inconsistent way in which banks and insurers have been writing down the value of their Greek sovereign debt. “This is a matter of great concern to us,” Hans Hoogervorst, IASB chairman, said in the letter, which was seen by the Financial Times.
ZDF TV:
  • Euro-area governments will need to transfer additional sovereign functions to the European Union if they want to establish a European economic government, citing an interview with Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker. Regional leaders won't be able to sidestep the issue of joint euro-area bonds indefinitely, he said.
Financial Times Deutschland:
  • Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Banking Authority, demanded that the European Financial Stability Facility be allowed to give funds directly to banks to shield them from financial difficulties, citing a letter to be sent to the council of European finance and economy ministers. Currently, the 725 billion-euro fund may give money only to governments, which can then pass it on to lenders. The majority of the 27 EBA members approve of the plan, while Germany is opposed, citing a person close to the German government.
Xinhua:
  • The eastern Chinese province of Jiangxi plans to halt production in three major rare earth mines in Ganzhou city for 2011, citing the local government.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 153.0 -5.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 150.50 -2.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +2.90%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (DG)/.48
  • (DSW)/.63
  • (BKS)/-.96
  • (PVH)/.95
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA for June is estimated unch. versus a -.05% decline in May.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus a reading of 59.5 in July.
2:00 pm EST
  • Minutes of FOMC Meeting.
Upcoming Splits
  • (HFC) 2-for-1
  • (VRUS) 2-for-1
  • (RGCO) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, the weekly retail sales reports and the Morgan Stanley Aerospace/Defense Unplugged Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on European Equity Rally, Diminished Hurricane Concerns, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Very Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 32.39 -9.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +44.5%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -22.03%
  • NYSE Arms .36 -32.56%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 122.92 -2.58%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 240.05 +2.1%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 303.0 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 288.32 -3.77%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 32.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 206.0 +6 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $178.30/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.0 +12.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03% +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech, Medical, Biotech and Retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 rallies meaningfully despite Eurozone debt angst, global growth worries and rising food/energy prices. On the positive side, Airline, Gaming, Homebuilding, Construction, Insurance, Hospital, I-Banking, Bank, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Steel, Disk Drive and Networking shares are especially strong, rising over +3.75% on the day. Small-caps and cyclicals are substantially outperforming again. (XLF) has traded very well throughout the day. Gold is falling -2.3%. The 10-year yield is rising +8 bps to 2.27%. The Greece sovereign cds is down -2.7% to 2,189.28 bps and the Germany sovereign cds is falling -1.46% to 83.69 bps. Key European equity indices surged another +2.0% today. On the negative side, Road & Rail, Restaurant, Retail, Telecom and Utility shares are underperforming, rising less than +2.0%. Oil is rising +2.4%, Copper is falling -.25%, Lumber is down -.58% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is up +.51%. Rice is right near a multi-year high, rising +31.0% in about 8 weeks. The US price for a gallon of gas is +.02/gallon today to $3.61/gallon. It is up .47/gallon in about 7 months. The France sovereign cds is rising +.2% to 165.28 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is gaining +.44% to 206.47 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is rising +.91% to 243.72 bps. The Eurozone Financial Sector CDS Index is still very near it recent all-time high. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index has plunged -108.4 points in about 3 weeks to -102.30. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is at a new record high, which is a large negative. The Shanghai Composite did not participate in the Asian equity rally overnight, falling -1.37%, and is down -8.25% ytd. The ongoing trend higher in key cds remains a large negative. Volume was very light on today's stock advance as this year's worst-performers posted the sharpest gains. As well, the euro was unable to rise meaningfully despite equity trader optimism over the questionable prospects for a TARP-style European bank bailout. While stocks could easily head higher in the short-term, I continue to believe any sustainable equity advance must be accompanied by a meaningful decline in Eurozone debt angst, which has yet to be seen. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminished hurricane concerns, bargain-hunting, technical buying and financial sector strength.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Merkel Bloc May Lack Majority for EFSF Bill, Handelsblatt Says. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling bloc of Christian Democrats and Free Democrats may lack a majority to secure passage of a bill to expand the euro’s temporary rescue fund, the Handelsblatt reported. As many as 23 coalition lawmakers may reject the bill that’s due in parliament next month, said the newspaper, without citing names. That underscores her dependence on the oppostion to ensure ratification. To gain passage of the bill on the coalition’s own strength, Merkel needs 311 votes in favor of the changes among the 620 lawmakers sitting in parliament’s lower chamber in Berlin. Her bloc comprises 330 lawmakers, implying that the German chancellor may lack 4 votes to achieve a coalition majority if 23 vote against the bill, Handelsblatt said. Euro-region leaders have pressed parliaments to secure fast-track approval to revamp the fund, called the European Financial Stability Facility, relieving or partly relieving the European Central Bank’s emergency debt purchase program.
  • Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs More Than Forecast on Purchases of Autos. Consumer spending climbed more than forecast in July as Americans dipped into savings to buy cars and cool their homes, showing the biggest part of the economy is holding up. Purchases rose 0.8 percent, the biggest gain since February, after a 0.1 percent decline the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes grew 0.3 percent and the savings rate dropped to a four-month low.
  • Pending Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Decline More Than Estimated. The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes fell in July for the first time in three months, a sign that lower prices and borrowing costs aren’t luring in buyers. The 1.3 percent decrease in the index of pending home sales followed a 2.4 percent gain the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1 percent drop, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • Copper Falls in New York on Concern Global Economic Recovery Is Faltering. Copper fell for the first time in five sessions on concern that the global economic recovery is faltering. World economic expansion will slow to 3 percent this year from 4.2 percent in 2010, and growth will remain subdued until 2015, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said today in an e-mailed statement. Before today, copper fell 8.1 percent in August, heading for the biggest monthly drop since January 2010, amid escalating debt woes in Europe and the U.S. Copper futures for December delivery fell 1.95 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $4.098 a pound at 9:54 a.m. on the Comex in New York.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Floods Still Threaten as Recovery Begins. Vermont towns battled floods of historic proportions, utility crews struggled to restore power to five million people along the East Coast, and big-city commuters coped with transit-system disruptions Monday as the rainy remnants of Hurricane Irene finally spun into Canada.
  • Noda Gets The Nod. Japan is getting another new prime minister this week, with Yoshihiko Noda's victory in yesterday's Democratic Party of Japan leadership race setting him up to take the top job as early as today. He becomes the country's sixth leader in five years, and cynics are already betting he'll be a one-year wonder like his four immediate predecessors. That cynicism may well be justified, though the leadership race has brought a few glimmers of hope.
  • Hungary Sees a Decade of Euro Zone Turmoil. The euro will be under permanent stress for up to a decade as a result of the sovereign debt concerns of some of its members, Hungary’s prime minister said Monday, pledging he’ll prepare his country for the tumultuous time ahead. “Hungary must prepare for a scenario in which the … economic crisis won’t pass in few months. There are analyses that show it won’t pass in the coming few years, either,” Viktor Orban said.
CNBC.com:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
New York Times:
Nasdaq:
  • IMF Cuts US, Euro Zone Growth Forecasts For 2011, 2012 - Report. The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2011-2012 growth forecasts for the U.S. and the 17-nation euro zone and says central banks in both should be prepared to ease monetary policy, Italian news agency ANSA reported Monday, citing an IMF draft report. The fund lowered its forecast for expansion of U.S. gross domestic product this year to 1.6% from a 2.5% view issued in June, and lowered its outlook for next year to 2% from 2.7%, ANSA reported. The IMF cut its euro zone 2011 growth forecast to 1.9% from 2% and the 2012 view to 1.4% from 1.7%, according to the report.
RTT News:
  • WSJ: Union Warns of Saab Bankruptcy Over Unpaid Wages. Swedish automaker Saab Automobile AB (SAAB-B,0GWL.L: News ) could be forced into bankruptcy if fails to pay wages by the end of this week, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing one of the company's labor unions, IF Metall. Saab Automobile is owned by Dutch automaker Swedish Automobile N.V.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Voters Express Stronger Enthusiasm for Health Care Repeal. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 57% at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor repeal. Thirty-seven percent (37%) at least somewhat oppose repeal, with 25% who are Strongly Opposed.
AP:
  • EU Official: Market Turmoil Threatens Recovery. Turmoil in global financial markets threatens the economic recovery in the European Union, the bloc's top economic official said Monday. The warning from EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn came after a turbulent summer for markets across the globe, as investors worried about a potential new recession in the United States, the eurozone's ability to resolve its debt crisis and the health of European banks. "The financial markets and the real economy move now more in synchrony, which makes me seriously concerned about continued financial turbulence spilling over to and potentially harming the recovery of the real economy," Rehn told European lawmakers. That statement is a sharp turnaround from comments in recent months, when Rehn consistently pointed out that growth in the EU was strengthening despite the market jitters. As a result, the European Commission now has a somewhat bleaker view of economic growth in Europe than this spring, Rehn said, adding that a new forecast will be released Sept 15. Rehn, meanwhile, sought to dampen expectations that so-called Eurobonds — debt backed by the entire eurozone — could be a quick and easy solution to the currency union's crisis. "It is clear that Eurobonds, in whatever form they were to be introduced, would have to be accompanied by a substantially reinforced fiscal surveillance and policy coordination," Rehn said. Such moves "would have unavoidable implications for fiscal sovereignty" and would require "substantive debate in euro area member states to see if they would be ready to accept it," Rehn added, indicating investors should not expect them to be introduced anytime soon.
Financial Times:
  • Market Turmoil Lands Hedge Funds With Big Losses. August, it now seems likely, will be the industry’s worst month since October 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a worldwide sell-off. It will almost certainly also be one of the top five worst months for the industry since performance data started to be aggregated in 1990. According to the latest provisional figures from Hedge Fund Research, the average hedge fund manager has lost 4.1 per cent in the past four weeks. Equity-focused managers have fared even worse, losing an estimated 6.9 per cent – a staggering drop for an industry that prides itself on risk management, and charges accordingly.
  • Sovereign Spreads Challenging Cherished Notions.
Corriere Della Sera:
  • Italy's tax burden will rise to 48.4% of GDP in 2013 from 46.6% in 2011 under the austerity plan approved by the Italian Cabinet on Aug. 12. The plan includes a tax increase for "high earners" as well as a special tax on profit of electricity utilities.
Il Sole 24 Ore:
  • Italy may increase its value-added tax to 21% from 20%.
People's Daily:
Global Times:
  • Shanghai Union Pleads for Inflation Fight. The Shanghai Federation of Trade Unions, a labor organization, has called for the local government to take further measures to curb inflation, noting the purchasing power of local workers has fallen 15.1 percent over the last 10 years. Shanghai wage earners' purchasing power dropped by 15.1 percent from 2001 to 2010, according to a survey conducted by the trade union. The survey found the loss grew more severe as the decade went on and purchasing power fell faster from 2006 to 2010 than it did from 2001 to 2005. In addition, Shanghai's consumer price index (CPI) hit a new high in July, up 5.6 percent over the previous month, with price increases in all sectors. On a national level, the price of pork surged 56.7 percent annually in July, putting the CPI up 6.5 percent year on year to hit its highest level in 37 months. Xiao is concerned the pace of salary increases lags far behind the increase of the CPI. "To better address the problem, local governments should perfect the price control system to restrain producers from irrationally raising prices, especially products or services that are tied in closely with daily life," he said.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (+2.19%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -.51% 2) Retail +1.39% 3) Road & Rail +1.49%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SQI, PANL, PWRD, MON, LFC and AUQ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MAR 2) ACN 3) INFY 4) RDC 5) CCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RHI 2) SPLS 3) R 4) CLH 5) BWEN
Charts: