Monday, September 01, 2014

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead  by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Tuesday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on escalating Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, yen strength, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, August 29, 2014

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%*
 photo oak_zps3a53b33e.png


 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,003.37 +.75%
  • DJIA 17,098.40 +.57%
  • NASDAQ 4,580.27 +.92%
  • Russell 2000 1,174.35 +1.21%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 34.10 +.71%
  • Wilshire 5000 20,36 +.82%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 935.68 +.67%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,007.92 +.91%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 463.79 +.61%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 137.18 +.17%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 996.34 +.11%
  • Transports 8,408.02 -.26%
  • Utilities 564.37 +1.64%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.52 +2.08%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.11 +.45%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,178.42 +.17%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 972.98 -.11%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 233,044 +1.17%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 56 -202
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.84 +1.88%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 317,727 -1.78%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,550,253 +.51%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +2.15%
  • OEX Put/Call 3.31 +501.82%
  • ISE Sentiment 91.0 -22.22%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -22.88%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.98 +4.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.33 +18.90%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.97 +1.87%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.37 -3.63%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,425.48 -.16%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.595 Trillion +.42%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.738 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 51.9 +12.6%
  • AAII % Bears 19.2 -18.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 292.75 +1.41%
  • Crude Oil 95.96 +2.77%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 262.29 +1.35%
  • Natural Gas 4.07 +5.83%
  • Heating Oil 286.01 +1.12%
  • Gold 1,286.50 .41%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 205.05 -.18%
  • Copper 316.05 -1.37%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.90 USD/Ton -2.44%
  • Lumber 343.90 -2.52%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,280.80 -.57%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% -50 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1223 -4.52%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.78+.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +39.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.10 -8.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +2.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17
  • US Dollar Index 82.75 +.51%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.74 -.67%
  • Yield Curve 185.0 -6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.372 Trillion +.02%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.83 -11.98%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 159.0 -1.88%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 30.63 -1.46%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 64.94 -4.15%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 218.64 +4.04%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 81.50 -3.96%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 330.40 -2.33%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 257.83 +11.85%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.95 -.22%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 21.25 -.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 -5.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.95 -.07%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.21 -2.72%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 282.13 +.54%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 82.50 -1.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $2.794 Trillion -1.1%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,039.80 +1.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,750 -1,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.10% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.0 +2.80%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.3 +.7 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,147 +4.65%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,106.69 -.66%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -16.67%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265,761 -1.69%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Biotech +3.9%
  • HMOs +3.8%
  • Oil Service +2.9%
  • Gold & Silver +2.8%
  • Disk Drives +2.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Social Media -.2% 
  • Education -.7%
  • Airlines -1.6%
  • Steel -2.2%
  • Gaming -2.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
  • TUBE, ITMN, KITE, RPRX, MOBL, BKW, BDSI, LTM, MIK, MPAA, DSW, CMTL, BRCD, TA, ARUN and SBSI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)
  • PSEC, SLH, GCO, GES, TITN, WSM and SWHC
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.43 +3.15%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.75 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.37 -1.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.82 +1.48%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +1.11%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -21.54%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -24.27% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.84 +.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.75 +.88%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.64 -.79%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.94 -.91%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 282.08 +1.51%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.94 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 21.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 185.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.90/Metric Tonne +.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.60 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.70 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Friday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.5 -.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (BIG)/.30
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  • Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  • The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in June. 
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for August is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 63.87 in July.
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for August is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus 52.6 in July.
9:55 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus a prior estimate of 79.2
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Retail/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.24 +3.90%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.77 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.49 +1.41%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.19 +2.88%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -20.87%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +17.98%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 +40.38% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.60 +1.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.49 +1.0%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.98 +5.12%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.76 +.76%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 278.77 +2.67%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.77 -.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 183.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.30/Metric Tonne -1.02%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.90 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.60 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long