Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,103.26 +3.21%

• DJIA 17,972.40 +3.29%

• NASDAQ 4,865.80 +3.36%

• Russell 2000 1,154.02 +2.29%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.49 +2.05%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 105.28 +5.50% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,672.30 +3.19%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,009.50 +3.25%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,011.58 +3.11%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 564.76 +3.76%

• Solactive US Cyclical 131.60 +2.12%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,061.58 +2.03%

• Transports 7,545.10 +3.16%

• Utilities 714.39 +4.22%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 68.07 -2.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 34.37 +4.07%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,106.05 -.49%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 987.85 -.55%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 258,738 +.77%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 321 +137

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 46.43 +1.04%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 318,595 +1.92%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,726,381 -2.7%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -15.2%

• OEX Put/Call .91 -31.45%

• ISE Sentiment 111.0 +101.85%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -55.26%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.81 -42.04%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.63 -18.71%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.90 -12.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.16 -7.59%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,439.71 +.94%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.718 Trillion +.55%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.902 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.9 +31.6%

• AAII % Bears 33.4 -5.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.38 +2.37%

• Crude Oil 48.33 +1.72%

• Reformulated Gasoline 148.19 -3.39%

• Natural Gas 2.97 +10.75%

• Heating Oil 149.35 +1.90%

• Gold 1,339.20 +1.58%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.62 +3.59%

• Copper 221.95 +5.23%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 218.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 54.33 USD/Ton +7.35%

• Lumber 315.80 +6.56%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,214.46 +2.07%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.6% unch.
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +7.2% +10.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2823 +4.98%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.14 -.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.30 +9.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.20 +5.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.20 -7.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 98.0% chance of no change, 2.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 7/27

• US Dollar Index 95.60 +.07%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,518.11 +1.19%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.36 +.61%

• Yield Curve 87.0 -7.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.46% -11.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.426 Trillion -.37%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.01 -13.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 357.0 +2.7%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.01 -15.49%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 52.12 -5.22%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 125.40 -6.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.09 -9.33%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 878.51 -3.42% 

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 228.12 -11.20%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.24 +.26%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47% +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 37.75 -2.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 +2.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -38.25 +5.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 75.32 -4.68%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 774.0 +6.06%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 105.27 -10.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 267.32 -11.48%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 147.50 +5.0 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.267 Trillion +.59%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,050.90 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 266,750 -250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% -10.0 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.48% -8.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 508.40 -2.64%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.9 -.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.7% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.28/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 660.0 +8.37%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 651.59 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,196 +1.07%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.2%

Leading Sectors

• Steel +8.3%

• Gold & Silver +7.9%

• Foods +5.6%

• Drugs +5.3%

• Homebuilders +5.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming +.3% 

• Disk Drives +.2%

• Agriculture unch.

• Hospitals -1.5%

• Oil Tankers -2.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (41)

• TSRO, HTWR, XNCR, CRCM, SCNB, TDOC, XBIT, FINL, TERP, HSY, DRII, NTK, CPK, IQNT, DKS, CASY, MSEX, STOR, FIZZ, PRMW, COTV, EPR, YORW, CONE, PVTB, GIS, EQY, CWT, UBA, LMOS, WOR, BURL, VEC, SUI, CTMX, TYL, PAYX, AHH, CCI, HIW and SWX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (83)

• GNTX, CVLT, PH, IIVI, FSB, FLIC, DNOW, GNC, HZNP, KW, RNST, RAVN, GCI, VRTV, TUP, MTX, ALB, ST, WAL, BUFF, CUB, GATX, UCBI, PKOH, DRI, FLR, LGF, PUB, LBY, SWN, XPO, FOE, PBCT, CBF, PCAR, PVH, ADSK, SPXC, MSGN, NCR, GWR, OPB, HLI, SIVB, AYR, CFG, MET, PJT, NCLH, TGI, PCLN, KMT, CCL, FLEX, EPAM, ACHC, NTRA, EEFT, AMP, CBG, GDEN, ITT, AIMT, LEA, TRMB, LPLA, RCL, COLL, FLOW, SCHW, PAG, ZBRA, VOYA, WBC, MAN, MC, EVR, JLL, BSET, GHL, NNBR, SCOR and BW

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Metal & Mining/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.86 -4.93%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.32 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.16 -1.84%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.11 -2.04%

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +66.20%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -16.39%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 +3.91% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.32 -7.34%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 774.0 -3.45%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.50 -5.73%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.01 -3.40%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.07 -2.38%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 267.35 -.64%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.24 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 38.75 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -38.5 +2.25 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.64 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 86.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.33/Metric Tonne -2.39%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.3 +5.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +4.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.20 -6.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47% +3.0 basis points
• 2.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 2.0% chance at Nov. 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -47 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -2.8% 2) Semis -1.1% 3) Banks -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• DSLV, TSRO, HSY, MU, BLL, LGF, AVY, CM, CXW, CBSH, RGEN, DGLD and NTES

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ESRX 2) HBAN 3) MU 4) XLB 5) NFLX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RUN 2) SCTY 3) S 4) LDR 5) AVY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.7% 2) Oil Service +2.6% 3) Steel +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SGY, THO, USLV, NFLX and AG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WWAV 2) GALE 3) ADM 4) SLV 5) GDX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TK 2) FCAU 3) SQ 4) PBR 5) HON

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 71.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.4% Declining
• 335 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 53.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.4%
• Vix 14.8 -5.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.37 +12.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +7.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• What Europe Wants Out of the Brexit Talks. (video)
• Japan’s Prices Keep Falling in Challenge to Abe, Kuroda. With a little more than a week until Japan goes to the polls for an upper-house election, a batch of economic data released Friday underscores the challenge Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces in convincing voters that his policies are working. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell for a third straight month and household spending declined, undermining efforts to revitalize the world’s third-largest economy. While corporate confidence and unemployment were unchanged, there is still little pressure for higher wages.
• China's Yuan Heads for Worst Quarter on Record. (video)
• Asian Stocks Head for Best Week Since April on Stimulus Optimism. Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest weekly advance since April, as policy makers signaled looser monetary policies to buffer the impact of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 129.23 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 3.2 percent gain over the past five days as the region’s equities rebounded from losses caused by the U.K.’s shock decision on Europe.
• Gold Gains for Fifth Week as Central Banks Poised for Easing. Gold headed for a fifth weekly gain as investors speculate central banks will have to continue supporting the global economy in the wake of Britain’s vote to quit the European Union. Bullion for immediate delivery was flat at $1,322.07 an ounce at 8.11 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal is on course to end the week 0.5 percent higher and is on its longest weekly winning streak in two years.

Wall Street Journal:

• Former Soviet Republics Are Fertile Ground for ISIS Recruiting. Istanbul attackers said to be from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia’s north Caucasus region.
• Former London Mayor Boris Johnson Says He Isn’t Seeking to Replace British Prime Minister David Cameron. Boris Johnson bows out unexpectedly. Theresa May and Michael Gove among those vying for Conservative Party leadership.
• Snack Giant Mondelez Makes $23 Billion Takeover Bid for Hershey. Hershey rebuffs bid aimed at creating the world’s biggest candy company.
• Hillary’s Strange Security Adviser. How did a big-money Clinton donor get on an expert panel next to nuclear scientists?

Fox News:

• Trump trouble in the burbs? (video) America’s suburbs: They’re sprawling, replete with shopping centers and bike paths – and they’re often where presidential elections are won or lost. But in a potential problem for the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has not fared so well in the ‘burbs so far this cycle.

MarketWatch:

• This economist thinks China is headed for a 1929-style depression. Andy Xie is among the loudest voices warning of an inevitable implosion.

CNBC:

• China official June manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 50.1 in May. Chinese factories, once lauded as the country's primary growth driver, saw activity tick down in June, according to official data. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a survey that tracks the health of large and state-owned companies, came in at 50.0 for last month, versus 50.1 logged in May and April. June's report was in line with Reuters' estimates for a 50.0 reading, which marked a four-month low.
• The European Union is 'doomed to fail,' says 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Italy Granted "Extraordinary " €150BN Bank Bailout Program To Prevent "Panic, Run On Deposits".
• Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into "Scandalous" Lynch-Clinton Meeting.
• "Off The Grid" Indicators Reveal True State Of U.S. Economy. (graph)
• The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit.
• Geert Wilders Warns "Dangerously Blind" Western Governments: "Beware Islamization, Stand For Freedom!". (video)
• Tesla Tumbles After Fatal "Auto Pilot" Car Crash. (graph)
• Silver Surges To 21-Month Highs, Gold-Ratio Crashes. (graph)
• Bad Earnings, Balance Sheet Rot, & The "Brelief" Rally. (graph)
• The Curse Of "Wealth Effects" Central Banking.
• The TARGET2 Chart Shows A Breakdown Of The Central Bank Narrative.
• Rent Affordability In Just One Chart. (graph)
• Stocks Bounce, Bonds Bid, But Gold Soars To Best Year Since 1980. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Zenefits resets value at $2 billion, down from $4.5 billion, in stunning deal to prevent investor lawsuits.
• Reporters grill White House press secretary over unusual Loretta Lynch-Bill Clinton meeting.
• Hongkongers' sense of Chinese national pride is at an all time low.
• The Clinton-Trump race's big winners: Hatred, prejudice, and voter disgust.
• Legendary investors are loading up on safer investments.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.5 -1.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 53.25 +2.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.60 +.07%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• None of note

Economic Releases  
10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated at 51.3 versus 51.3 in May.   
• The ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated at 63.5 versus 63.5 in May.
• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -1.8% decline in April.

Afternoon:

• Total Vehicle Sales for June are estimated to fall to 17.29M versus 17.37M in May.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI and the (F) sales conference call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.