Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.1% 2) Insurance -1.0% 3) Gaming -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VRS, TSRO, PLNT, AROC and RCII

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MNK 2) NLY 3) ESRX 4) ACWI 5) BSX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLNT 2) WIN 3) SIRI 4) AWK 5) ALL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +4.5% 2) Social Media +2.8% 3) Gold & Silver +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RENN, APLP, WATT, EDGE, CASA, FDT, LIVE, NETE, INSY, IJT, QTEC, CRSP, EGN, ZKIN, MTRN, ATHM, HAE, MGPI, XENT, WTW, LILAK, AMGP, MTEM, BITA, EDIT, CMC, CNSL, CATM, XON, BAX, APPN, ABT and UCTT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ZTS 2) JWN 3) SEE 4) WM 5) XME

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HAE 2) TGT 3) JWN 4) GMED 5) BRC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 63.3% of Issues Advancing, 34.1% Declining
• 149 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 61.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0%
• Vix 9.99 -9.5%
• Total Put/Call .86 -21.1%
• TRIN/Arms .62 -57.57%

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Calls for Change in ‘Failing’ Iran as Protests Turn Fatal. "Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama administration," Trump said Monday morning in one of several New Year’s Day tweets, including one that was critical of Pakistan. "The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!" 

• The Biggest Threats to China’s Economy in 2018.

• South Korea Exports Climb to Record in 2017 on Semiconductors. South Korea’s exports in 2017 expanded to the highest level in at least six decades, boosted by shipments of semiconductors, machinery and petrochemicals, according to a statement from the trade ministry. Exports in December missed estimates. Exports surged 15.8 percent to $574 billion in 2017 from a year earlier. The trade surplus widened to $96 billion from $89 billion in 2016. Exports rose 8.9 percent in December from the same month a year earlier. The median estimate of economists was for a 9.8 percent increase. Imports climbed 13 percent in December, compared with an estimate of 12 percent, leaving trade surplus of $5.8 billion. Shipments of semiconductors jumped 57.4 percent to $98 billion in 2017.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• How China Will Shake Up the Oil Futures Market. China, the world’s biggest oil buyer, is on the verge of opening a domestic market to trade futures contracts. It’s been planning one for years, only to encounter delays. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a unit of Shanghai Futures Exchange, will be known by the acronym INE and will allow Chinese buyers to lock in oil prices and pay in local currency. Also, foreign traders will be allowed to invest -- a first for China’s commodities markets -- because the exchange is registered in Shanghai’s free trade zone. There are implications for the U.S. dollar’s well-established role as the global currency of the oil market.

• Bitcoin Starts a New Year by Tumbling, First Time Since 2015. For the first time since 2015, the cryptocurrency began a new year by tumbling, extending its slide from a record $19,511 reached on Dec. 18. The virtual coin traded at $13,440 as of 3:55 p.m. in New York, down 6.1 percent from Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s also a fall from the $14,156 it hit Sunday, according to coinmarketcap.com, which tracks daily prices.

Wall Street Journal: 

• On Iran, Trump Administration Encourages Support for Protestors. Washington considers new sanctions amid debate about whether forceful stance helps or harms demonstrators’ cause.

• Two More Dead as Iran Protests Appear Set to Continue. Country’s most widespread demonstrations in almost a decade.

• In Cities With Low Unemployment, Wages Finally Start to Get Bigger. Ending an economic riddle, pay is moving higher and could point to improved incomes nationally in 2018.

• Miners Look to Cash In on Cobalt Demand. Firms step up operations as battery makers seek new sources of the metal.

• Eight Things to Watch in Markets in 2018.

• The Limits of Amazon(AMZN). The tech giant is very good at delivering what customers need, but is it as well positioned to sell them things they want?

MarketWatch.com:

• Hiring like it’s 1999: U.S. jobs market hasn’t been this good in decades.

Fox News: 

• CNN revels in pot smoke during New Year's Eve report from Denver.

CNBC:

• Asian shares kick off the first trading day of the year.

• Tech trends for 2018: From helpful robots to voice-controlled TVs. (video)

• 18 stocks that could rise 25% in 2018.

• Stocks to rally 10 percent or more in 2018, Wall Street veteran Art Hogan predicts. (video)

• Bitcoin fever to burn out in ‘spectacular crash,’ David Stockman warned. "It's basically a class of really stupid speculators who have convinced themselves that trees grow to the sky," he told CNBC's "Futures Now" last week. "It will burn out in a spectacular crash. All of these latter-day speculators will have their hands burned to a crisp, and they will learn the proper lesson."

• 2017 marks safest year on record for commercial passenger air travel, watchdogs say.

• Iranian protesters attack police stations, raise stakes in unrest.

• Tax on medical devices to resume after 2-year suspension.

• Here are three key global themes set to dominate markets in 2018.

• Democrats in high-tax states plot to blunt impact of new tax law.

• Costa Rican plane crash kills 12, including 10 US citizens.

Zero Hedge:

• Iran's "Iron Fist" Unleashed: Revolutionary Guards Take Over Security As Israel Praises "Freedom Fighters".

• Trump Blasts Pakistan For "Giving Safe Haven To Terrorists"; Threatens To Pull Aid.

• Kim Jong Un: "A Nuclear Button Is Always On My Office Desk". 

• "We Got Some Folks Fired": Minimum Wage Is Going Up In These 18 States Today.

• David Brock And Clinton Pal Funneled $700K To Fund Trump Sexual Harassment Accusers.

• Einhorn: "None Of The Problems From The Crisis Have Been Solved" - Full Q&A.

• California Kicks Off 2018 With Statewide Pot Legalization.

• 12 Killed In Iran, Security Forces Accused Of Opening Fire.

• A "Monster Of A Storm" Could Hit The East Coast Next Week.

• 2017 Greatest Hits: Presenting The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year.

• California Prosecutes Man For Posting Anti-Muslim Messages On Facebook.

• Crisis For Mueller: Lindsey Graham Demands New Special Counsel To investigate Trump Dossier & FBI.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guards Vow To Crush Dissent As Protests Extend Into Fourth Day.

• South Korea Seizes 2nd Ship Suspected Of Violating UN Sanctions On Oil Sales.

• Australian Banks Reportedly Freeze Accounts Of Bitcoin Users.

• Military & Political Trends Of 2017 That Will Shape 2018.

• Despite Bluster Of The Left, Mexican Deportations Have Actually Plunged Under Trump. (graph)

• Goldman Answers The 10 Most-Important Questions For 2018.

Business Insider:

• PREDICTIONS: The most important things that will happen in tech in 2018.

• Here's everything you need to know about the protests rocking Iran.

• Trump tweets Happy New Year to his 'enemies, haters, and even the very dishonest Fake News Media'.

• In China, cash is dead.

• A tsunami of store closings is about to hit the US — and it's expected to eclipse the retail carnage of 2017.

• 300 top Hollywood women reveal sweeping anti-harassment action plan with a $13 million legal defense fund.

Telegraph:

• Serious risks, yes, but I see growth continuing in the global economy.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.31 +.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases  

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, seasonal strength and economic optimism offset profit-taking, technical selling and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Goldman(GS) Sees Crypto, Credit Shadowing Robust 2018 U.S. Economy. Hatzius has already made some predictions for the new year: four Federal Reserve rate hikes, real U.S. gross-domestic product growth quickening to an average of 2.6 percent, the jobless rate dropping to about 3.5 percent, and the yield curve not inverting. In a new report, Hatzius reiterated his expectation for overall economic strength, while flagging some concerns. Goldman isn’t the only firm to send up a warning flag about cryptocurrencies. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon labeled bitcoin a “fraud.” Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said it is a “highly speculative asset,” and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it’s being used for speculation. 

• They Year in 257 Graphics. 

• As Oil Rises, Shale Drillers With Few or No Hedges Stand to Gain. OPEC Wins Over Hedge Funds to Make 2017 Oil's Most Bullish Year. The signs that the group is winning its tug of war with shale are compelling, and money managers have taken note: Their combined bets on rising prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude reached record levels in December.

• Einhorn's Main Hedge Fund Rises 2% in 2017 With December Advance.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iranians Protest Over Economic Malaise. Dozens arrested in two days of protests across country over unemployment and inflation.

• Coptic Christian Church Near Cairo Attacked. At least 9 were killed in shooting, the latest in a string against Egypt’s Christian minority.

• Biotech’s Breakthrough Year. Medical advances are accelerating, and even the FDA approves.

• Money in 2018: The Managers and Executives to Watch. Active investing held its own in 2017, but the new year holds new risks and opportunities for these four leaders in the sector.

• In Sign of Resistance, Chinese Balk at Using Apps to Snitch on Neighbors. New technology rewards citizens for notifying authorities about illegal activity, domestic disputes and other problems, but people are wary of using it.

• U.S. Steelmakers Raise Their Bets on Energy, Construction. Steel prices are up, but some say expansion is risky given continuing flood of cheap imports.

• Bank Stocks Extend Their Winning Streak. Tax and regulatory changes are giving banks a potent antidote to persistently low long-term interest rates.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (XLB), (GLW), (GSK), (DIS), (HD), (TJX), (WMT), (FIVE), (AAPL) and (CVX).

• Had bearish commentary on (SHLD), (PIR), (WSM) and (ANF).

MarketWatch.com: 

• 18 predictions for 2018 on the stock market, FAANGs and bitcoin.

• The big calls for 2018 from Josh Brown, Raoul Pal and other finance pundits on Twitter.

• Biggest Nasdaq winners and losers in 2017: Chip makers, videogame publishers lead tech.

• Biggest S&P 500 winners and losers of 2017: Tech, health care and home builders lead.

• What should investors worry about in 2018? Here’s a big, fat list of risk factors.

Fox News: 

• Trump redoubles support of Iran protests, says 'world is watching'. (video)

• GOP lawmaker: FBI, DOJ officials 'should be held in contempt' if dossier docs not turned over. (video)

CNBC:

• Dollar could follow its worst performance in 14 years with another weak year. (video)

• From facial scans to more sneaky fees: What you need to know about air travel in 2018.

• Five lessons we learned from 2017's biggest consumer and retail deals (yes, Amazon wasn't the only one).

• From SeaWorld to Sears: Here are 20 stocks hedge funds hate the most right now.

• Bitcoin will trade under $5,000, warns Dennis Gartman. (video)

• Coming to a mall near you in 2018: Craft brewers, children's theaters, gyms and other unorthodox uses.

• FDA chief: I'm surprised it took big tech this long to get into health care.

Zero Hedge:

• US State Department Hints At Iran Overthrow: Are We Witnessing The Early Stages Of Regime Change?

• Jihadist Group Blows Up Oil Pipeline In Iran, In Midst Of Protests.

• A Stunning Look Inside The World Of South Korea's "Bitcoin Zombies".

• Classified Huma Abedin Emails Found On Anthony Weiner's Laptop Discussing Hamas, Israel And Palestinian Authority.

• Goldman(GS) Showers Execs With $100 Million In Early Bonuses To Avoid Trump Tax Hit.

• China Launches New Capital Controls: Puts $15,000 Annual Cap On Overseas ATM Withdrawals.

• DHS Announces Program To Illegally Scan Our Faces.

• Hodl On: Missing Just The Best 10 Days Per Decade Will Wipe Out 99% Of Yours Gains.

• China Resists US Push To Blacklist Ships Caught Trading With North Korea.

• Gold Tops $1300 - Best Year Since 2010 As USD Tumbles Most In 14 Years.

• Record-Smashing 2017 Ends With Stock Slamfest - Bitcoin, Bonds, Bullion Best.

• Russian Tankers Reportedly Caught Selling Oil To North Korea.

• California Supreme Court Set For Ruling That Could Cut Pensions For Public Workers.

Business Insider:

• The stock market just made history.

• The cost of bitcoin payments is skyrocketing because the network is totally overloaded. (graph)

• The 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang might have a new problem — it's too cold for everyone.

• 23 startups that became unicorns in 2017, scoring valuations of $1 billion or more.

• One chart shows how the Chinese bitcoin market collapsed in 2017.

• Tim Cook needs to take responsibility for Apple's battery scandal.

• Bitcoin startup NiceHash has a new CEO just weeks after hackers stole $63 million from the company.

• Tesla(TSLA) will face huge challenges in 2018 — and it could put the company under crushing pressure.