Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.8% 2) Coal +.4% 3) Steel +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNOV, BIS, ALNA, HUM, RCKT, CVLT, AOI, NEWA, AAT, SOHU, ASUR, RNST, PLSE, SAIC, SGH, SGRY, MCD, UNH, MED, RTEC, KE, CLXT and USNA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XHB 2) DISCA 3) NBR 4) MAR 5) XPO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MNOV 2) LLNW 3) ACXM 4) STZ 5) EGLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 27.9% of Issues Advancing, 69.0% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 40.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.6%
• Vix 21.9 +9.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +11.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +50.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China's Manufacturing PMI Posts 1st Increase Since Nov. (video)

• Asian Stocks Set for Muted Start to Second Quarter. Asian shares are set for a muted open as the first trading day of the second quarter begins. Volumes are expected to be subdued as many markets across the world remain closed for the Easter holiday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 index were little changed Monday morning. The yen edged lower even as a poll showed improved support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet. Chinese stock futures were also flat ahead of purchasing managers data. The dollar drifted and West Texas crude oil steadied around $65 per barrel. Nikkei 225 futures were little changed.

Wall Street Journal:

• Climate Alarmists May Inherit the Wind. They likened a courtroom ‘tutorial’ to the Scopes Monkey Trial. But their side got schooled.

• Track the Markets: Winners and Losers. Compare the performance of selected global stock indexes, bond ETFs, currencies and commodities. 

• These Developing Countries Are Getting Old Before They Get Rich, With Dire Consequences. Mix of more retirees, fewer workers to support each one, leaves budgets of countries such as Brazil with little money to invest in growth or basic services.

• No Rent, Cheap Flights, $100 Art: How One Hedge Fund Keeps Costs Low. Devet Capital’s model has helped the small fund survive in a sector where fund closures have outnumbered new launches for the past three years.

MarketWatch.com:

• Tesla(TSLA) bankrupt? Elon Musk cracks jokes after worst month in 7 years.

• IPO proceeds hit 3-year high in first quarter, fueled by foreign companies’ offerings.

Fox News:

• London murder rate beats New York for month as stabbings surge.

CNBC: 

• Why Walmart(WMT) may have designs on Humana(HUM), and what it thinks it could get from a deal.

• College student cryptominers are finding it harder to turn a profit as costs rise, bitcoin falls.

Zero Hedge:

• The History Of US Trade Policy In One Annotated Chart.

• Chinese Space Station Set To Enter Earth's Atmosphere At Any Moment: Live Tracker. (map)

• China Slaps Tariffs On US Imports Including Pork, Nuts And Wine.

• "No More DACA Deal" Trump Booms, "Must Go Nuclear" As "Refugee Caravan" Approaches.

• Cryptogeddon - Bitcoin Breaks Below $7,000; Ether Down 75% From Highs.

• Why WSJ Insists Trump's Crackdown Against Amazon Would Be "A Long Shot" .

• US Power Grid Vulnerable To "Devastating" Attack, NERC Finds.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 -1.25 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.37 +.03%. 

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (CALM)/1.38

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in January.

• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 60.8 in February.

• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 72.5 versus 74.2 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Japan Car Sales report and the (URBN) QTD sales update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, bargain-hunting and technical buying offset trade war fears, Mueller probe worries and rising geopolitical tensions. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Exports Shrug Off Talk of Trade War, Factory Gauge Surges. A gauge of activity at China’s manufacturers posted its first gain since November, as factories recovered from a seasonal dip at the start of the year and export demand shrugged off threats of a trade war. The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.5 in March versus the 50.6 estimate in Bloomberg’s survey and 50.3 last month. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, stood at 54.6, the statistics bureau said Saturday, compared with 54.4 in February. Levels above 50 indicate improvement.
• How Facebook(FB) Helps Shady Advertisers Pollute the Internet.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israel Says Firing on Palestinian Protesters Was Justified. Demonstrations in the Gaza Strip continue with fewer numbers, a day after 15 Palestinians were killed, according to local authorities.
• Banks Forecast Gains for Crude Oil. Analysts raise their forecast amid draining crude inventories and rising geopolitical risks.

CNBC:

• Trump bashes Amazon(AMZN) 'scam,' claims post office loses 'billions' delivering packages for the internet retailer.
• Earnings season could stop the ‘bleeding’ on stock markets: Nuveen strategist.

Zero Hedge:

• Facebook(FB) In Turmoil: Employees In Uproar Over Executive's Leaked Memo.
• Tesla(TSLA) Admits Autopilot Was Engaged During Deadly Model X Crash.
• "Huge Caravan" Of Central American Refugees Is Headed For The U.S. Border.
• In Unprecedented Move, China Plans To Pay For Oil Imports With Yuan Instead Of Dollars.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Stocks Are About to Get a $400 Billion Dividend Boost. Here’s a fresh reason to celebrate the end of a lousy quarter in global equities: the new one kicks off with the potential adrenaline boost of as much as $400 billion in dividends. “We think it is no coincidence that spring is also a seasonally strong period for equities," Morgan Stanley strategists including Andrew Sheets wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. Up to $400 billion is set to be paid into investor accounts between March and May, they calculated. “April in particular tends to be a strong month for global equity returns.”

• China's Biggest Stocks Suffer Worst Quarterly Loss in Two Years.

• China Cuts Taxes for Chipmakers to Promote Industry Development.

• Hon Hai's Profit Beats Estimates Thanks to Demand for iPhone X.

• China Plans Merger of Shipbuilders to Create Behemoth. China’s government is working on a plan to combine its two biggest shipbuilders to create an industrial giant that would dwarf its South Korean rivals, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The state council, China’s cabinet, has given its preliminary approval to merge China State Shipbuilding Corp. with China Shipbuilding Industry Corp., the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The two companies have combined revenue of at least 508 billion yuan ($81 billion) making products ranging from aircraft carriers for China’s navy to vessels to carry containers, oil and gas for commercial companies.

• Einhorn's Main Hedge Fund Down 14% This Year After March Drop.

• Telegram Raises $1.7 Billion in Coin Offering, May Seek More.

Wall Street Journal:

• China’s Huawei Is Determined to Lead the Way on 5G Despite U.S. Concerns. Mobile giant inundates standards-setting confabs with its representatives and recommendations.

• Trump Freezes Funds for Syrian Recovery, Signaling Pullback. Order to State Department to hold off on spending jibes with president’s call for an early exit.

• Why Would Walmart Want to Buy an Insurer? The Retail Squeeze. Talks with Humana spurred by search for growth and profits in Age of Amazon(AMZN).

• Why Wall Street’s Love Affair With Tech Hasn’t Cooled. Analysts cite big tech’s solid earnings outlook and its dominance across sectors from retail to social media.

MarketWatch.com:

• Mortgage rates tick down as investors rotate back to the bond market.

Fox News:

• IG report faults ex-FBI official McCabe for lying four separate times, congressman says. (video)

• Respected professor blasts 'once-proud' CNN in scathing op-ed: 'CNN lost its way'.

CNBC:

• ‘Good riddance’ to the first quarter, April should bring better news for stocks: LPL's Detrick.

• Tesla’s(TSLA) ‘day of reckoning’ is near as its plunging stock increases financing risk.

• Facebook exec in 2016 internal memo defends 'ugly' growth tactics, even if people use platform for evil. (video)

• Bitcoin is on track for its worst first quarter ever with over $114 billion wiped off its value.

Zero Hedge:

• Israeli Troops Kill Seven Palestinians, Wound 500 Amid Massive Border Protests.

• Crypto Carnage Continues - Bitcoin Back Below $7,000, Ether Under $400.

• Israeli Stealth Fighters Fly Over Iran Amid Speculation Of Imminent War.

• Judge Rules California Starbucks Must Have Cancer Warnings On Their Coffee.

• Japanic? Industrial Production Slowest In 16 Months, CPI Drops, Unemployment Jumps. (graph)

• ECB Doubles Bond Purchases Just As Market Hits Turbulence. (graph)

• "It's Destroying Jobs And Destroying Value" - Former Walmart US CEO Explains Why Trump Is Right About Amazon(AMZN).

• 'Global Synchronous Recovery' Narrative Crushed As EU, US Data Diverge. (graph)

• Facebook(FB) Hires "Third-Party" Fact-Checkers To Stamp Out "Fake News".

• A Majority Of Americans No Longer Trust Facebook(FB).

• Musk-nado - Tesla(TSLA) Tumbles After-Hours On Massive Model S Recall.

• Meet BunnyToken: A New ICO From A Bunch Of Porn Stars.

• Leaked Texts Suggest Coordination Between Obama White House, CIA, FBI And Dems To Launch Trump-Russia Probe.

• Trump: "We're Coming Out Of Syria Very Soon; Others Can Take Care Of It Now".

• Under Armour(UA) Admits 150 Million Users Affected By Data Security Breach.

• Gold Gains In Q1 As Stocks, Bonds, Cryptos, Dollar Tumble Amid Trade Tantrums, Techlash. (graph).

Business Insider:

• Apple(AAPL) just released iOS 11.3 — here's what's new in the massive iPhone update and how to download it.

• It's just dumb to put more than $250,000 in one bank account if you're rich.

• California will now require coffee to be sold with a cancer warning — here's what the science says.