Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,954.01 +2.35%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,795.71 +2.72%

• NASDAQ 8,038.71 +3.11%

• Russell 2000 1,549.52 +1.81%

• S&P 500 High Beta 42.42 +3.59%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 152.86 +1.93%

• Wilshire 5000 30,327.68 +2.27%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,599.51 +2.68%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,253.21 +1.93%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 605.53 +.48%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,087.40 +.22%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,908.56 +4.03%

• Transports 10,390.47 +.85%

• Utilities 826.78 +1.43%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.30 +.32%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.79 +3.45%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,218.75 +.17%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 961.22 +.08%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 360,910 +1.19%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 807 +781

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 65.7 +39.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 351,655 -12.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,057,046 -1.03%

• Total Put/Call .77 -23.1%

• OEX Put/Call 1.19 +10.0%

• ISE Sentiment 108.0 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms .85 -19.81%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.76 -4.71%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.34 -.19%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.11 +1.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.18 -1.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,211.93 +.81%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.172 Trillion +.28%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$6.210 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.5 +10.0%

• AAII % Bears 32.1 -6.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 178.81 +2.4%

• Crude Oil 57.52 +9.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 185.65 +6.38%

• Natural Gas 2.19 -8.42%

• Heating Oil 191.71 +4.45%

• Gold 1,400.0 +3.94%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 173.58 +1.05%

• Copper 270.20 +3.48%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 289.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.34%

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.16 USD/Metric Tonne +6.34%

• Lumber 392.80 +1.48%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 918.20 -.56%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.05% +66.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.3% -40.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0947 +10.41%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 635.41 +212.92%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.27 +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.40 -7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.30 +18.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 -2.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31

• US Dollar Index 96.28 -.93%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.30 +1.30%

• Bitcoin/USD 9,928.46 +16.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.74 +.12%

• Yield Curve 28.5 +4.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.06% -2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.805 Trillion -.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.93 -7.0%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 134.99 unch.

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -16.75 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.85 -15.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.56 -8.26%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.83 -.87%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.09 -5.07%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 113.02 -8.92%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.75 +.08%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% +8.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.0 -1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +2.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.82 -11.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 603.0 -3.73%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.30 -14.15%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 175.56 -10.3%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.850 Trillion -1.59%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,112.6 +1.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 218,750 +1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.84% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 511.80 -3.4%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.8 +.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.20% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.67/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,194.0 +10.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 818.83 +.91%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50+28.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,604 +1.6%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +10.7%

• Oil Service +10.0%

• Gold & Silver +7.0%

• Biotech +5.1%

• Semis +4.7%

Lagging Sectors

• REITs +.6% 

• Banks +.3%

• Foods -.7%

• Homebuilders -2.2%

• Tobacco -4.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• OSTK, PBF, SE, GBT, EPZM, GTHX, KMX, PRFT and CVI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• ARE, BGS, SFM, SPTN, KR, AX, AMC, CCL, MO, PZZA, CXW, GEF, SEE and ANAB

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Iran Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Homebuilding/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.47%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.71 +.66%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.18 -1.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.16 +2.79%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -25.5%
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%

• NYSE Arms .83 +12.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.86 +1.33%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 604.0 -3.73%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.20 -.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -3.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.85 +.21%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 176.28 +1.98%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.75 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 26.0 +3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.27 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.1% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 28.50 +1.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.52%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.40 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +14.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -2.5% 2) Homebuilders -1.7% 3) REITs -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KFY, KERN, ANAB, CUK, ARE, IIPR, CGC, GEO, CXW and SFM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UUP 2) PCG 3) KMX 4) AET 5) NWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACHV 2) LKSD 3) ANAB 4) CCL 5) SEE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +2.2% 2) Road & Rail +.9% 3) Banks +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KMX, OSTK, ZYME, OC, UGLD, PBF, PRFT, FNKO, DFIN, BKH, E, RJF, BP, CROX, NPK, PACW, PBFX, APPN, KSU, IDA, CTLT, XOM, GTHX, ICLR, BFAM, GTES, FNB and CVI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) COF 3) HUM 4) ALXN 5) CELG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KMX 2) AXGT 3) CROX 4) PBF 5) UNH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 36.2% of Issues Advancing, 60.1% Declining
• 140 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 57.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.6%
• Vix 14.7 -.4%
• Total Put/Call .67 -15.2%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +21.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:      

• Trump Again Downplays Iranian Attack After Navy Drone Shot Down.

• Crude Climbs by Most This Year as Iran Shoots Down U.S. Drone.    

• China Is Missing Out On an Epic Bond Rally Taking Off Globally.  

• French Economy Hit by Euro-Area Slowdown as Insee Cuts Outlook.

• Mexico Vows All-Out Border Crackdown While Lacking a Trump Goal.

• U.S. Border Faces ‘Overwhelming’ Strain, Agency Chief Says.

• Asia Stocks Seen Mixed With S&P 500 at Record High. Markets Wrap. Stocks in Asia looked set for a muted start Friday even as their U.S. counterparts climbed to a record high. Treasury yields climbed back above 2%. Futures were little changed in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index already up more than 3% on the week. Oil soared as President Donald Trump hinted at possible retaliation for Iran shooting down a U.S. drone. Energy stocks led U.S. share gains. The dollar slumped, while Treasuries gave up some gains seen in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s signal for lower interest rates. The S&P 500 Index rose 1%. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.1% in Singapore. Hang Seng futures were little changed. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.1%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.   

• Bloomberg’s Week in Pictures.

Wall Street Journal:

• S&P 500 Climbs to Record on Prospect of Fed Cuts.

• Joe Biden’s Race-Card Education.

• Investors Are Buying More of the Housing Market Than Ever.

• UnitedHealth Agrees to Buy Payments Firm Equian .

• McDonald’s Tests Robot Fryers and Voice-Activated Drive-Throughs.

Fox News:

• Top lawmakers speak out after Situation Room briefing with Trump on Iran threat.

MarketWatch.com:

• Tesla’s(TSLA) second-quarter sales are as good as it gets, Goldman Sachs says.

CNBC:

• CVS just laid out a big reason why health companies are worried about Amazon.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours.

• 10-year Treasury yield drops as low as 1.97%, first time below 2% since November 2016.

• Caterpillar CEO shrugs off China trade war exposure: ‘This is not new for us’.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Suicide Rates Among Young Americans Accelerates To Highest Level Since 2000 .

• Iran Releases Video Of Drone-Downing, Trump Warns "You'll Soon Find Out" If US Will .Attack.

• 1,000 Quakes In 3 Weeks In Key SoCal Seismic Zone: "We're Watching This Actvity Closely"

• Biden Doubles Down After Reminding Everyone Democrats Owned Slaves.

• Trump Says DOJ Investigating Whether Obama Tapped His Phone.

• With Libra Launch, Is Facebook Trying To Become A Virtual Country?

• Markets Turmoil On Downed-Drone, Powell-Promises, & Trump-Tweets.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.50 -4.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 -1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.36 unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KMX)

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for June is estimated at 50.5 versus 50.5 in May.

• Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for June is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.9 in May.

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 5.27M versus 5.19M in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Japan CPI report and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.