Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.4% 2) Gold & Silver +2.5% 3) Video Gaming +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTBT, ACMR, DMTK, BYSI, RIOT, BLNK, ATOM, MSTR, FCX, BCOR, MSGE, MP and SI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TJX 2) XLP 3) AMBC 4) TIF 5) HZNP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BCDA 2) IPDN 3) NETE 4) CDAK 5) STMH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 73.2% of Issues Advancing, 24.3% Declining
• 81 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 84.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,472.0 +72.0 points
• Vix 22.8 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .77 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .62 -43.6%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 28.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.90 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,401.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.60 -.10%
• FTSE 100 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Nov. is estimated at -$81.5B versus -$80.3B in Oct.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.1% gain in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 56.0 versus a reading of 58.2 in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated unch. versus a -1.1% decline in Oct.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,449,670 barrels versus a -562,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise +212,780 barrels versus a -1,125,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -402,890 barrels versus a -2,325,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.38% versus a -1.1% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The South Korean inflation report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Dem Senate Control Fears, Diminished Stimulus Optimism, Valuation Worries, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +6.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,416.0 -18.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.20 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +1.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 +3.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +8.5%

• NYSE Arms .78 -39.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 561.64 -.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.16 -.23%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.89 +.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 154.20 -.66%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.11 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.

• TED Spread 16.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 +3.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.5 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.66 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.85 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 82.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.56 USD/Metric Tonne -5.71%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.80 +4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 191.0 -1.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 68.8 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -71 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industril sector longs and emerging markert shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.2% 2) Networking -2.1% 3) Defense -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BEEM, SYNA, PRTS, THBR, KPTI, EGAN, FIII, GH, IPOD, NGA, SNPR, IIPR, NTGR, MSTR, NVTA, QTRX, GHIV, SWBI, LCA, GIK, IPOC, FSRV, FUBO, SQ, PRLB, AMBC, MWK, LL, DMYT, PSNL, BEAM, SGMO, RVP, LGVW, CLSK, PACB, AKTS, SPRO, IPV, THCB, XL, NTLA, MP, CSTL, VCYT, EDIT, RARE, BLNK, JOE, BLNK, TWST, QS, COGT, RMG and ARCT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BGCP 2) IBB 3) KBE 4) LB 5) EXPE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ARCT 2) CLSN 3) FBIO 4) PYPL 5) ICPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +.9% 2) Pharma +.7% 3) Steel +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DMTK, LMND, INTC and LAZR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PBI 2) IMMR 3) MNST 4) CYRX 5) TMUS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AMPH 2) SNAP 3) FLGT 4) AMZN 5) CLR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume