Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.99 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,410.0 +51.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.3 -.31%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.22%.

• S&P 500 futures -.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BMI)/.43
• (BAH)/.83
• (CAT)/1.49
• (CVX)/.08
• (CHD)/.52
• (CL)/.76
• (LLY)/2.40
• (GNTX)/.50
• (HON)/2.00
• (JCI)/.41
• (LHX)/3.10
• (LYB)/1.33
• (PSX)/-.99
• (SAP)/1.56
• (WY)/.48
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in 3Q.
• Personal Income for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -1.1% decline in Nov. 
• Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.4% decline in Nov.
• The PCE Core MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 59.5 in Dec. 
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -2.6% decline in Nov. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German GDP/Unemployment reports could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Technical Buying, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.2 -24.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,529.0 +540.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.88 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 +.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.9 +3.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 +1.37%

• NYSE Arms 1.89 +600.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.65 -.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 519.03 -1.49%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.57 +.07%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.53 +1.79%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.40 -1.72%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.56 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.0 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.12 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 89.0 -2.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 152.95 USD/Metric Tonne -6.86%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.80 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 98.6 +7.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.50 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +22 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech/medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -8.1% 2) Telecom -2.4% 3) Shipping -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PBH, ASO, GATX, RAD, LEVI, BC, MTH, SEER, MSGN, CALX, SPCE, CRSR, VGAC, ZYXI, LGF/B, CHRS, GO, TER, DISCA, KIDS, CPB, SJM, SDC, UNFI, DDS, M, CAKE, BIG, IRM, MDLA, EBIX, WHR, KR, SOL, FLWS, HZO,  BGS, TR, VIAC, SKT, CVM, KODK, MAC, SRNE, KOSS, FIZZ, LUMN, AXDX, VIR, IRBT, PETS, GME, FOSL and BBBY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GNUS 2) LB 3) ASHR 4) FIZZ 5) AAL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBBY 2) GSX 3) TRIT 4) BIG 5) SIRI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.5% 2) Gold & Silver +3.9% 3) Road & Rail +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SGRY, PSAC, AFG, REAL, PTC, SLM, LB, HAFC, CONN, ABMD, AOS, AAL, NOW, BKNG, DYN, ATHA, ABT, OUT, BPOP, RHP, SRG, CVLT, HLT and DBI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GLUU 2) THO 3) VIRT 4) SLV 5) CHEF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HAFC 2) ABMD 3) NOW 4) CMCSA 5) GFF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +74.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 65.9% of Issues Advancing, 31.5% Declining
• 52 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 83.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,542.0 +552.0 points
• Vix 27.7 -25.6%
• Total Put/Call .69 -5.5%
• TRIN/Arms 2.27 +740.7%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Putin Warns of Global Tensions Similar to 1930s in Davos Speech.  
• China’s Zero-Tolerance Covid Tactics Now Include Anal Swabs.
• Stocks Extend Drop After Worst Slump Since October: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Pares Gains With Weaker Equities Overshadowing Supply Drop.
• Gold Set for Worst Start to Year in a Decade as Dollar Ascends.
• In 11 Hours of Pure Mania, 100% Stock Gains Popped Up Everywhere.
• Market Frenzy Reaches Biden and Powell as Hedge Funds Squeezed.
• Dan Sundheim’s $20 Billion D1 Capital Loses About 20% This Month.    
• Steve Cohen’s Point72 Loses 10-15% Amid Month’s Hedge Fund Carnage.
• Bank of America Banker Revolt Spurs Retreat on Bonus Plan for Veteran Staff.   
• Fed’s Powell More Worried by Cool Economy Than Hot Markets.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden’s First Week Was a Race to the Left.
• GameStop Is a Bubble in Its Purest Form.
• WHO Advises Most Pregnant Women Not to Use Moderna, Pfizer Vaccines.
• Outages Continue to Plague Online Brokerages.

Fox News:

• Republicans say Biden's energy policies are gutting the gas and oil industry.
• Huckabee: China is doing a 'big happy dance' over Biden climate agenda.
• Kerry's family still owns private jet as he leads climate fight: FAA records.
  

CNBC.com:

• Welcome to the super cycle: Apple just had the best quarter in the history of the smartphone.
• Apple now has $195.57 billion in cash on hand, up $3.7 billion.
• Reddit group WallStreetBets is public again after briefly going private.
• Facebook will stop recommending political groups permanently.
  
• These wild stock moves will end badly for investors, DoubleLine’s Sherman says.
• Biden brother touts relationship with president in Inauguration Day ad for law firm.
• Federal Reserve leaves interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, sees growth slowing.

MarketWatch.com:  

• How GameStop’s surge recalls ghosts of past trading catastrophes.  
• SEC says it is ‘aware of and actively monitoring the ongoing market volatility’.  
• GameStop, AMC stock trading is now being restricted at TD Ameritrade and Schwab brokerages.

Zero Hedge:

• Most Shorted Names Tumble After WallStreetBets Reddit Page Goes Private.
• Did America's Anti-Cop Movement Lead To Largest Homicide Increase In US History?
• Florida Man Arrested Over 2016 Election Memes Designed To "Trick" Hillary Voters.
• The Next Melvin? Maplelane Loses 33% On Shorts This Month, Steve Cohen Down 15%.
• Biden Administration Sued For Halting Oil, Gas Leasing On Federal Lands.
• COVID Linked To Mental Illness, Brain Disorders According To Oxford Analysis.
• Remember When Joe Biden Said "You Can't Legislate By Executive Orders Unless You're A Dictator".
• Staggering Moves: Nasdaq, Calls Option Volumes Highest Ever.
• Biden Assembling Commission To Study Supreme Court Reform.
• Another Snowstorm Headed For Midwest, Northeast? 
• Tesla Plunges After Rare Earnings Miss, Lack Of Guidance.
• Facebook Shares Slump After US Users Fall For 2nd Straight Quarter, Warns Of "Significant Uncertainty" Ahead.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Tries To Get Charges Dropped By Claiming Jury Is Too White.
• Stunning Short-Squeeze Sparks Hedge Fund Hell, Bitcoin & Big-Tech Battered.

Newsmax: 

• As Biden Pipeline Order Hits Jobs, Climate Adviser Says 'We're Not Asking for Sacrifice'.  
• Ken Paxton to Newsmax TV: Biden Immigration Policy ‘Creates Real Problems’ for the Country.
• New Secretary of State Favors Cooperation With China Despite Genocide of Uighurs.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• JUST IN: DHS Issues National Terrorism Advisory, Takes Veiled Shot at Conservative Media, Trump Supporters – Admits They Have No Info to Indicate Specific, Credible Plot
• Maricopa County Officials Sell Out America! Refuse Audit of 2020 Ballots – GOP Senators Vow to Fight On.
• John Kerry to Oil and Gas Workers Who Lose Their Jobs Because of Biden’s War on Energy: ‘Go Make Solar Panels’ (VIDEO).
• INSANE: Joe Biden Signs Executive Order Banning the Term “China Virus”.
• “Social Media Companies Want To Defend Biden”: The Scoop CEO Steeve Strange Says He Was Permanently Banned From Facebook After Creating ‘Patriots Against Joe Biden’ Group.
• Pro-Trump Meme Maker “Ricky Vaughn” Indicted For Using Twitter to ‘Spread Election Disinformation’ to Hillary Clinton Voters in 2016 – Faces 10 Years in Prison.
• Second Police Officer Dies From Suicide After January 6 Capitol Riot.
• Wisconsin Senate Votes to Overturn Democrat Governor’s Statewide Mask Mandate.
• No More Hard Questions: Biden Team Considers Banning Conservative Media from Press Briefings.
• Here We Go… Sen. Tom Carper Introduces Washington DC Admission Act to Make Nation’s Capital its 51st State.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Residents Tell of More COVID-19 Cases Than Officially Announced.
• Eastern Chinese City Relocates Hundreds After Family is Diagnosed with COVID-19.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.75 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.89 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,020.0 +30.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.9 -2.2%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.74%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ATI)/-.35
• (ADS)/2.42
• (MO)/1.02
• (AAL)/-4.14
• (CMCSA)/.48
• (DHR)/1.87
• (DOW)/.67
• (JBLU)/-1.66
• (MA)/1.52
• (MCD)/1.78
• (MUR)/-.11
• (NOC)/5.71
• (NUE)/1.15
• (NVR)/79.82
• (PHM)/1.40
• (SHW)/4.85
• (SINA)/.86
• (LUV)/-1.68
• (SWK)/3.02
• (TROW)/2.59
• (TSCO)/1.51
• (VLO)/-1.38
  

After the Close:

• (ETH)/.69
• (JNPR)/.53
• (MDLZ)/.66
• (RHI)/.68
• (SWKS)/2.09
• (X)/-.65
• (V)/1.28
• (WDC)/.54
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$84.0B versus -$84.8B in Nov.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in Nov.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 875K versus 900K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5088K versus 5054K prior.
• 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +4.2% versus a +33.4% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.1% versus a +41.0% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +3.5% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +3.4% gain in 3Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Nov.
• New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 866K versus 841K in Nov. 
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 13 versus 14 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German inflation data report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HPE) Fireside chat and the (FLR) strategy day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.