Monday, February 01, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:     
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 31.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.23 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,476.0 +59.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.07 +.14%.
  • FTSE 100 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AMG)/3.68
  • (CNA)/1.00
  • (ENR)/.89
  • (GPN)/1.77
  • (HAS)/1.14
After the Close:
  • (CHGG)/.41
  • (LEG)/.70
  • (SPG)/2.24
  • (TTWO)/.94
Economic Releases
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 16.15M versus 16.27M in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP report, China PMI report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.2 -11.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,518.0 +375.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.07 -.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.44 +.77%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.9 -4.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +23.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -19.4%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -37.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.55 -2.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 519.31 -.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.23 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.60 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.40 -1.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.51 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.75 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 96.25 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 149.75 USD/Metric Tonne 4.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.60 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 124.0 -4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.80 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +164 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -4.9% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Foods +.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GRTS, WSM, BDTX, MRTX, BPMP, CONN, ACAD, RXT, PVH, COLL, STIM, CHRS, WW, EVLO, SKT, SEET, SHLX, TR, GOGO, DD, CRTX, SPWR, MRNA, SFIX, PETS, FIZZ, GME and KOSS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) HOG 3) DD 4) SWKS 5) SLV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TRIT 2) SFIX 3) EXPR 4) BTBT 5) WSM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +5.0% 2) Video Gaming +3.4% 3) Networking +3.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • THCB, INO, BCRX, RVP, VXRT, STPK, FLGT, GATO, FUBO, UAVS, NVAX, CDE, GPRO, SRNE, SPCE, CDMO, INAQ, HIMS, XONE, IFF, CVLB, SUM, CREE, IRTC, CODX, CCIV, NKTR, FPI, SWKS, XRX, IPOE, NESR, AMC, PSAC, SPFR, IPOD, PSAC and IBKR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SUM 2) DVAX 3) TPX 4) RVP 5) BCRX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ARQT 2) FIS 3) CMG 4) TMO 5) EXPE
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +33.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 59.7% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
  • 81.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,299.0 +155.0 points
  • Vix 31.9 -3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .69 -25.8%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.14 -5.8%

Sunday, January 31, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.50 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.15 +.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,178.0 +34.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.55 +.40%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
  • S&P 500 futures -56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.71%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ON)/.28
  • (TMO)/3.88
  • (OTIS)/.59
After the Close:
  • (CRUS)/1.86
  • (FN)/1.04
  • (KMT)/.09
  • (NXPI)/2.11
  • (VRTX)/2.58
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.9% gain in Nov.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 60.7 in Dec.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to fall to 76.0 versus 77.6 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report and the RBA rate decision could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by metals & mining and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.