- Volume Running +4.0% Above 100-Day Average
- 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
- 62.1% of Issues Advancing, 33.0% Declining
- 160 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
- 87.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 51.3%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,461.0 +124.0 points
- Vix 16.9 -2.8%
- Total Put/Call .63 -14.9%
- TRIN/Arms .72 +18.0%
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Thursday, May 27, 2021
Mid-Day Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
Wednesday, May 26, 2021
Thursday Watch
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Biden’s Top Man in Asia Says the Era of Engagement With China Is Over.
- Ditched Olympics Could Wipe Out Most of Japan’s Growth This Year.
- Local Lockdowns Temper India’s Economic Activity in April.
- The Super Rich Are Choosing Singapore as the World’s Safest Haven.
- Bank CEOs Take Punches From Democrats, Warnings From Republicans.
- Exxon CEO Is Dealt Stinging Setback at Hands of New Activist.
- Shell Loses Climate Case That May Set Precedent for Big Oil.
- Asia Stocks Eye Steady Start; Dollar, Yields Rise: Markets Wrap.
- Central Banks’ Slow Shift, Fed Taper, China Cost Impact: Eco Day.
- From Corn to Copper, Commodities Cool Off With China in Focus.
- Heat to Test Electric Grids From West Coast to New England.
- GameStop, AMC Shorts Get Hit With $673 Million Loss in Big Rally.
- Justice Department Opens Probe Into Archegos Blowup.
Wall Street Journal:
- Who Wants a Woke Bank?
- The Virus Lab Theory’s New Credibility.
- Google, Hospital Chain to Make Tools Using Patient Data.
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
- Nvidia revenue jumps 84% as gamers demand graphics chips.
- FDA gives emergency use approval for Covid-19 antibody drug.
- American Eagle is the latest apparel retailer to crush estimates as teens head back to the mall.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
- "Don't You Live In The Ghetto?" - Bill Gates Ignored Complaints About Top Money Manager's Racist, Sexist Behavior.
- "What The Hell Is Going On - 2020 Edition" - Chamath's Annual Letter Warns That "People Have Stopped Thinking For Themselves".
- Global Chip Hub Taiwan Hammered By Triple Blow Of Drought, Blackouts And COVID Surge.
- Illinois Constitutional Amendment Is "A Monstrous Giveaway To Public Unions".
- Re-Funding The Police: Major Cities Backtrack On Police Budget Cuts After Crime Surges.
- What To Expect In Tomorrow's "Monster" Momentum Quant Rebalance.
- Johns Hopkins Prof: Half Of Americans Have Natural Immunity; Dismissing It Is "Biggest Failure Of Medical Leadership".
- Suddenly The Market No Longer Sees Jackson Hole As Taper D-Day.
- "Change Is Coming" - Engine No. 1 Wins Two Exxon Board Seats.
- Small Caps Surge Amid Massive Short-Squeeze, Dollar Dead-Cat-Bounces.
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
- “A Weaponized Operation” – General Flynn Blasts Biden Admin’s Efforts to Cover Up Origins of Covid (AUDIO).
- UPDATE: Biden Admin Shuts Down Trump’s Investigation into Origins of China Virus — Then Turns It Over to Crooked Intel Community and Asks China to Help.
The Epoch Times:
Digital Blackboard:
Worldometer:
Rt Covid-19:
KFF:
Worldometer:
Rt Covid-19:
KFF:
Night Trading
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 -.5 basis point.
- China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.75 basis point.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.22 -.02%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,322.0 -14.0 points.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.75 +.65%.
- FTSE 100 futures -.02%.
- S&P 500 futures -.02%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
- (AMWD)/1.71
- (PLAN)/-.09
- (BBY)/1.41
- (BURL)/.83
- (DG)/2.20
- (DLTR)/1.40
- (FRO)/-.06
- (GCO)/-.53
- (MDT)/1.42
- (SAFM)/2.50
- (TITN)/.16
- (TD)/1.76
After the Close:
- (ADSK)/.94
- (BOX)/.17
- (COST)/2.28
- (DELL)/1.62
- (GPS)/-.09
- (GES)/-.20
- (OLLI)/.62
- (CRM)/.89
- (ULTA)/1.96
- (VMW)/1.80
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for April is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in March.
- Durables Ex Transports for April is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.9% gain in March.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for April is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.2% gain in March.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 425K versus 444K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 3680K versus 3751K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.9% gain in March.
11:00 am EST
- Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to fall to 30 versus 31 in April.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The House Hearing with major banks, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, $62B 7Y T-Note auction, German Consumer Sentiment report, (MRNA) science day and the (RJF) investor day could also impact global trading today.
- 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Around Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -3.1%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,281.0 +24.0 points
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.42 -.19%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 +.9%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.0 -3.5%
- ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +18.0 points
- Total Put/Call .76 -7.3%
- NYSE Arms .64 -56.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.71 -.41%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 439.08 -.42%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.46 -.24%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 +1.0 basis point
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.81 -.87%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 160.84 -.66%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 +.03%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -.5 basis point
- TED Spread 13.0 -1.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 62.25 -.25 basis point
- IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.22 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 143.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 172.90 USD/Metric Tonne -8.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 136.70 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.3 -.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -2.0 basis points
- 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -27 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +82 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/commodity/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Large-Cap Growth +.3%
- 1) Medical Equipment -1.0% 2) Paper -.9% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%
- WBA, BLL, PCRX, CCK, JWN, PACK and TVTX
- 1) IVR 2) DKS 3) ZS 4) WBA 5) AMC
- 1) TVTX 2) GOTU 3) BSX 4) CALM 5) RAD
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Small-Cap Value +2.0%
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy +4.1% 2) Retail +2.8% 3) Airlines +2.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- OMI, AMC, SKY, DKS, RRGB, GME, URBN, ZS, BGFV, FOSL, BBBY, QS, RIOT,
RVNC, ANF, PTON, IDCC, F, ASO, INVA, SPCE, CVET, BYND, AFRM, ONTF,
TTCF, BKE, MUDS, DY, TOL, ETH, ICPT, GIII, LUNG, CRSR and CTRN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) PIRS 2) DKS 3) EXPR 4) JWN 5) GES
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) BBW 2) DKS 3) LI 4) URBN 5) ZS
Morning Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running -3.0% Below 100-Day Average
- 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
- 63.5% of Issues Advancing, 32.4% Declining
- 87 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
- 86.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,245.0 -8.0 points
- Vix 18.3 -2.8%
- Total Put/Call .65 -20.7%
- TRIN/Arms .72 -51.0%
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