Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,281.0 +24.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.42 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 +.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.0 -3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0  +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -7.3%
  • NYSE Arms .64 -56.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.71 -.41%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 439.08 -.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.46 -.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.81 -.87%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.84 -.66%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.22 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 143.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 172.90 USD/Metric Tonne -8.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 136.70 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.3 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -2.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -27 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +82 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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