Friday, May 14, 2021

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -16.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,193.0 +348.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.32 +.43%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.27 -1.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.0 -4.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .94 -5.0%
  • NYSE Arms .46 -54.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.24 -2.46%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 432.55 -.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.24 -3.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.29 -.92%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.11 -1.95%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.25 -.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.34 +.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 198.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 -20.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 158.0 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 71.70 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 unch.
  • 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +211 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/tech/biotech/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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