Thursday, May 20, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Inflation Worries, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.5 -7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,155.0 +156.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.2 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.22%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.3 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 143.0  +38.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 -21.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.26 -19.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.34 -.98%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 439.44 +.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.39 -1.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 +3.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.17 -2.65%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.26 -.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.41 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 151.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 198.90 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 134.60 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.0 +3.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -7.0 basis points
  • 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 87.1% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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