Friday, May 21, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Valuation Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,155.0 +17.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.07 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0  -33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .84 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .93 -33.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.30 -.06%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 437.37 -.41%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.10 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 +.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.08 +1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.23 -.27%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.41 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 148.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 186.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +14.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.10 +7.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 56.1 +2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -1.0 basis point
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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