Tuesday, May 04, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Yellen Comments, Valuation Concerns, Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +8.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,039.0 -110.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.78 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.0 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 +16.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +13.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.64 +.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.61 +2.26%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.16 +.70%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.35 +1.14%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 +.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.63 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 148.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 184.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 158.1 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.8 -3.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +1.0 basis point
  • 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.2% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -102 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -307 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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