Friday, May 07, 2021

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Dovish Yellen Commentary, Dollar Weakness, Earnings Optimism, Commodity/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -6.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,237.0 +49.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.51 +.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -1.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.0 +1.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +28.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .81 -6.9%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +10.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.44 -.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.74 -.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.65 -.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.37 -4.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.0 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.48 +.65%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 141.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 203.50 USD/Metric Tonne +6.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 162.3 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.7 +11.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +4.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +28 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

No comments: