Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Inflation Worries, Rising Mid-East Tensions, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Abvove Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.5 +9.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,958.0 -110.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.50 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +1.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +13.5%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -51.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.79 +.92%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.93 +2.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.66 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.77 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.36 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.52 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 144.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 220.95 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.4 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 165.60 +4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.80 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 -1.0 basis point
  • 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -11 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -91 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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