Monday, May 10, 2021

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Rising Inflation Worries, Escalating Mid-East Tensions, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,214.0 -61.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.70 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.0 +.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +1.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 426.36 -.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.74 -.07%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.55 -1.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.384 +.17%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  61.75 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.55 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 145.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 215.45 USD/Metric Tonne +5.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.7 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 161.20 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 61.20 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +5.0 basis points
  • 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -133 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -119 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -77 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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