Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Inflation Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.6 -.61%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,267.0 +50.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.56 +.30%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 +3.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .81 -10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 +89.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.93 +.94%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 431.90 +.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.72 +1.85%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.25 +1.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.93 -.11%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.30 -.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.25 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.59 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 149.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 208.15 USD/Metric Tonne -3.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.3 -8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 146.10 -3.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.10 +1.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 unch.
  • 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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