Thursday, May 27, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Commodity/Industrial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -3.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,422.0 +86.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.34 +.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.3 -3.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 117.0  +1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .66 -10.8%
  • NYSE Arms .58 -4.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.21 -.92%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.35 -.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.95 -.87%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.13 +.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.02 -.51%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.39 +.23%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.5 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.31 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 143.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 185.0 USD/Metric Tonne +11.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.70 +8.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.7 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +1.0 basis point
  • 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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