Monday, May 03, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.4 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,151.0 +38.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.03 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.6 -2.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +29.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .73 -23.2%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -36.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.23 -.36%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.97 -.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.31 -.26%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.59 -1.96%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.35 +1.46%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.37 +.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 17.5 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  61.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.87 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 148.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 183.36 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.8 -16.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 158.6 -6.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.7 +5.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
  • 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +313 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -154 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/energy/medical sector longs sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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