Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +1.3% 2) Shipping +.9% 3) Disk Drives +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALT, AVXL, RUN, FUV, MAXR, PTGX, SAVA, ZI, RMBS, ASAN, CNC, ASTS, CORT, TRHC, SUPN, MITK, WKHS, SOFI, CVGI and GLO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMLP 2) ALT 3) HOME 4) KOPN 5) ORCL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APRE 2) ALT 3) ARVL 4) MAXR 5) RUN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.3% Declining
• 140 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 88.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,343.0 -15.0 points
• Vix 16.5 -3.1%
• Total Put/Call .90 +25.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +25.3%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.43 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,346.0 -12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.30 -1.35%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.29%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (JEF)/.95
• (LEN)/2.38
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Building Permits MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• Housing Starts for May is estimated to rise to 1630K versus 1569K in April.
• The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol for  May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,686,820 barrels versus a -5,241,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -14,550 barrels versus a +7,046,000 gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +843,000 barrels versus a +4,412,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.24% versus a +2.6% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 0.00-.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (TTD) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, China Industrial Production report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Deutsche Bank Auto Industry Conference, JMP Life Sciences Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Fed Taper Fears, Inflation Concerns, Valuation Worries, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +3.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,344.0 -14.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.90 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.0 -1.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 152.0  +21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .68 -4.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 -18.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 +.61%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 325.11 -.10%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.11 +.09%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.93 +.05%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.90 +1.31%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.15 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 10.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 -.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.36 -.46%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 133.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 209.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 122.60 -2.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 86.3 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
• 93.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 93.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -71 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -145 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 32.1% of Issues Advancing, 62.5% Declining
• 134 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 88.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,339.0 -18.0 points
• Vix 17.2 +5.0%
• Total Put/Call .69 -2.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -24.0%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.63 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,345.0 -11.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.95 -.66%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.23%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (HRB)/5.06
• (LZB)/.74
• (MANU)/.01
• (ORCL)/1.33
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for May is estimated to fall -.7% versus unch. in April.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.8% decline in April.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for May is estimated unch. versus a -.8% decline in April.
• Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 22.5 versus 24.3 in May.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in April.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  

9:15 am EST

• Capacity Utilization for May is estimated to rise to 75.1% versus 74.9% in April.
• Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in April. 
• Manufacturing Production for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for April are estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in March.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is estimated at 83 versus 83 in May.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for April.

Upcoming Splits

• (TTD) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Retail Sales report, weekly US retail sales reports, 20Y T-Bond auction, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference and the (HUM) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.