Sunday, June 27, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:  
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:      
NewsMax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.75 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,480.0 -1.0 point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.69 -.07%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (MLHR)/.39
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated to fall to 32.5 versus 34.9 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CSX) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Japan Retail Sales report and the Mobile World Congress could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by metals/mining and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 26, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (AMT), (ASTE), (MLM), (ROAD), (URI), (VMC), (CAT), (DE), (OSK), (MTW), (TEX), (NMIH), (ESNT), (GTLS) and (MTG).
MarketWatch.com:     
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Friday, June 25, 2021

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
IG:
MarketWatch.com:       
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Thursday, June 24, 2021

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:            
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
 MarketWatch.com:       
Zero Hedge: 
Newsmax:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.75 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.82 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,247.0 -140.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.15 -.09%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (APOG)/.37
  • (KMX)/1.64
  • (JKS)/-.01
  • (PAYX)/.67
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for May is estimated to fall -2.5% versus a -13.1% decline in April.
  • Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  • The PCE Core MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CSGP) 10-1
  • (CSX) 3-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan CPI report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Infrastructure Deal Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Commodity/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -3.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,400.0 +40.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.72 -.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -1.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.1 +2.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 136.0  +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .7 -1.5%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -22.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.39 -.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.85 -.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.4 -1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.17 -.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.86 -1.75%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.15 -.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.0 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.80 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 122.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 206.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 97.20 +3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 78.1 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +135 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) REITs -.5% 2) Utilities -.2% 3) Airlines -.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SEMR, RCUS, TTD, SHAK, LLY, MGNI, AACQ, LAZR, PSAC, RAMP, ARCH, ATHA, SAVA, FSLR, AOSL, FRX, GRUB, SCS, AVXL, MRC and VMC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KBH 2) CRBP 3) RAD 4) TTD 5) KMX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RAD 2) DLTR 3) BB 4) LMNL 5) CCL
Charts: