Stocks Slightly Lower Mid-Day on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Fed Taper Worries, Oil Decline, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 +8.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,706.0 -161.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.58 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 +4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 +2.5%

• NYSE Arms .93 +10.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.14 +.44%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 431.25 -.21%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.06 +.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.28 -.72%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.84 +.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.55 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.75 basis points

• TED Spread 7.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.74 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 109.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.4 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.2 +.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 325 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +4/100K people
• 61% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 30.6% of Issues Advancing, 64.8% Declining
• 55 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 70.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,707.0 +160.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,622 -.01%
  
• Vix 17.9 +6.9%
• Total Put/Call .84 +6.3%
• TRIN/Arms .95 +13.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.5 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.83 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,865.0 -2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.35 +.61%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.25%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (FLWS)/.19
• (ANF)/.77
• (ASO)/1.40
• (BURL)/1.50
• (DG)/2.61
• (DLTR)/1.02
• (FRO)/-.11
• (HAIN)/.39
• (SJM)/1.88
• (SAFM)/6.50
• (TITN)/.44
• (TD)/1.92
  

After the Close:

• (DELL)/2.04 
• (GPS)/.46
• (HPQ)/.84
• (MRVL)/.31
• (OLLI)/.55
• (PTON)/-.34
• (VMW)/1.64
• (WDAY)/.77
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 350K versus 348K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2764K versus 2820K prior. 
• 2Q GDP revisions.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 25 versus 30 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished Virus Lockdown Fears, Declining Fed Taper Worries, Oil Gain, Financial/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.7 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,875.0 +167.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.62 +.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 -.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 +2.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0  +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms .91 +54.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.96 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 432.79 -2.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.64 -.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.71 -.91%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.56 -.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.4 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.80 +.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 154.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -48.0 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.3 -5.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 321 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +1/100K people
• 60% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +101 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.6% 2) Steel -.7% 3) Pharma -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CARA, SAIA, SAM, ALIT, SCVL, EDR, DSP, URGN and JWN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DKS 2) JWN 3) DLTR 4) INTU 5) SPLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) OWLT 3) SAVA 4) PAE 5) VIOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.8% 2) Banks +2.3% 3) Homebuilding +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DKS, BLFS, BASE, OLO, MTTR, TRMK, HIBB, RRGB, BGFV, OPCH, SKYW, CCRN, DVAX, KRG, PLBY, ASO, PENN, FNKO, CNK, DKNG, OKTA, SONO, EYE, TOL, ALB, ATEC, SIBN, ACMR, TPGY, DOCS, DRNA, ONTF, CANO, MSGE, SKYT, WMG and OSCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACM 2) DKS 3) URBN 4) JWN 5) INTU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DKS 2) SCSC 3) SPRT 4) DKNG 5) VNET
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume