Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +1.3% 2) Social Media +1.1% 3) Biotech +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PTGX, QS, SPIR, INDI, AGIL, UBER, WMG, ATER, LCID, XLRN, TGNA, FUSE, SLGC, NEOG, DNA, AERI, PAY and PATH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRVS 2) MGM 3) AIG 4) LEN 5) NVTA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPIR 2) UBER 3) VRDN 4) SLDB 5) MOH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 51.2% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 54.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,488.0 +15.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,979 +.54%
  
• Vix 24.5 -4.9%
• Total Put/Call .91 -18.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -26.9%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5.% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +25.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 49.0 +12.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.50 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,471.0 unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.4 -.26%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (APOG)/.54
• (AZO)/29.88
• (CBRL)/2.35
• (NEOG)/.16

After the Close:

• (ADBE)/3.02
• (FDX)/4.93
• (SFIX)/-.12
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Aug. is estimated to rise to 1550K versus 1534K in July.
• Building Permits for Aug. is estimated to fall to 1600K versus 1635K in July.
• The Current Account Balance for 2Q is estimated at -$191.0B versus -$195.7B in 1Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (RJF) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoJ Interest Rate Decision, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (BIIB) investor day, Evercore ISI Autotech/AI Forum and the BofA Industrial Software/Automation Summit and the (WDAY) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on China Debt Bubble Bursting Fears, Tax Hike Worries, Labor/Product Shortage Concerns, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.2 +30.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,386.0 -519.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.38 -.56%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.99 +3.1%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.81 +2.81%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0  -1.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +12.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.78 -61.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.14 +15.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.15 +4.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.02 +15.8%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.27 +31.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.12 +10.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.3 -.73%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 unch.
  

• TED Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.32 -.49%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 112.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.20 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.2 +6.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.3 -4.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 314 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -13/100K people
• 59% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -550 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs,
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -3.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -6.7% 2) Alt Energy -5.7% 3) Oil Service -4.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KRP, IEP, GWB, EL, HFN, FIBK, DOCN, LYEL, ASO, PTY, WYNN, RSI, RXRX, CRF, IRNT, FFIE, OLO, SLGC, CRTX, JOAN, PATH, HSKY, DCP, AGIL, DISCA, HUN, C, CAT, CYH, RTLR, CHGG, DNA, PLTR, SPIR, OPAD, IEA, SD, F, AMKR, BLI, ALB, AINV, TROX, LRN, AB, X, FCX, KKR, AFRM, LZ, TLRY, CG, BX, AMR, FSLR, BLDE, SLQT, AERI, DIBS, MP, NUE, IVZ, CLF, DOCS, AGFY, GNK, MTTR, EGLE, ASTS, GREE and PTGX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SIX 2) ASHR 3) CFX 4) EWH 5) MS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CLF 2) DIDI 3) CAT 4) GS 5) NIO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.1% 2) Pharma -.4% 3) REITs -.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATER, AVIR, BRKS, TDC, MRTX, STKS, GRTS and TASK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CPLG 2) YANG 3) KEY 4) BBWI 5) GILD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZIVO 2) SYBX 3) VSTM 4) WELL 5) MOH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume