- Volume Running +.7% Above 100-Day Average
- 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
- 59.0% of Issues Advancing, 37.6% Declining
- 94 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
- 60.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 45.4%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,144.0 -83.0 points
- Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,649 -1.69%
- Vix 18.3 +3.0%
- Total Put/Call .76 -22.5%
- TRIN/Arms .42 -50.0%
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, September 27, 2021
Mid-Day Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
Sunday, September 26, 2021
Monday Watch
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China’s Growth Forecasts Downgraded as Power Crunch Worsens.
- China’s Recovery Is Coming Under Pressure From Weak Demand.
- China’s Power Crisis Moves From the Factory Floor to Homes.
- Evergrande’s EV Unit Plunges After Warning of Cash Shortage.
- From Nairobi to Ningbo: See the Supply Shocks Spanning Globe.
- Chinese Regulators Are Serious About Crypto Ban This Time.
- Scholz Has Edge as German Election Leaves Outcome Undecided.
- China Stocks Rise as Liquor Firms Surge to Offset Power-Cut Woes.
- Stocks, Futures Gain; Oil Rises on Tight Supply: Markets Wrap.
- Oil Extends Surge as WTI Jumps Above $75 on Global Energy Crunch.
- Five Things You Need to Know to Start your Day.
- Pelosi Sets Thursday Vote on Infrastructure Bill in Crucial Week.
- Beaten-Down Airline Stocks Celebrate Easing of Travel Rules.
- Mayorkas Says U.S. Won’t Protect Southern Border With Wall.
- Apple’s Modest iPhone 13 Update Sets the Stage for Bigger iPhone 14 Changes Next Year.
Zero Hedge:
- Pelosi Plays Chicken With House Progressives, Schedules Three Votes For Next Week That "Must Pass".
- NYC Fast Resembling San Fran & Vancouver 'Cities Of The Walking Dead' As Junkies, Dealers Take Over Midtown Streets With Impunity.
- As Biden Releases 12K Haitians Into US, Thousands More Arrive In Panama For Northbound Trek.
- Taliban Hangs 4 Bodies In Public Square - Says Will Resume "Cutting Off Of Hands".
- The Key Market Flows Behind "Yet Another Quick Selloff".
- Gasflation.
- As Advisory Panel Warned, CDC Director's Anti-Science Decision Makes Boosters 'Available To Anyone Who Wants One'.
- Not Again. Costco Warns Of Toilet Paper Shortage.
- CDC Not Changing Definition Of "Fully Vaccinated"...For Now: Walensky.
- At Least 3 Dead, Dozens Injured After Amtrak Train Derails In Montana.
- 30 Facts You Need To Know: A COVID Cribsheet.
- The Problem Is Not Just Xi Jinping; It Is Communism.
- Democrats In Congress Try To Abolish Space Force.
- Hedge Fund Net Leverage At All Time Highs As No Dips Are Sold.
- Texas Moves To Divest From Ben & Jerry’s Over Israeli Settlement Ban.
- Never Say Neigh: FDA Lists 'Horse Drug' As Approved COVID Treatment.
- Just How Many Containers Of Cargo Are Stuck Off California's Coast?
NewsMax:
NY Times:
- Covid-19 cases are plunging in the South over the last two weeks despite packed college football games and campuses. Florida -46%(vaccination rate: 57%), Louisiana -43%(vaccination rate: 45%), Tennessee -36%(vaccination rate: 45%), Georgia -36%(vaccination rate: 45%), Texas -33%(vaccination rate: 51%), Mississippi -29%(vaccination rate: 43%), South Carolina -29%(vaccination rate: 47%), Arkansas -28%(vaccination rate: 45%) and Alabama -26%(vaccination rate: 42%).
TheGatewayPundit.com:
- DHS Chief Mayorkas Admits More Than 12,000 Haitian Illegals Have Been Released Into US – No Vaccine Mandate, No Covid Testing (VIDEO).
- Arizona Audit Final Report Was Watered Down: Reports from Cyber Ninjas Were Edited, Most Damning Statements Removed – What Else Was Removed?
- Biden Gang Wants Closer Ties with China While Ignoring China’s COVID Guilt and Intimidating Flights Over Taiwan.
- ROCK BOTTOM: Even Kamala’s Poll Numbers Are Now 6 Points Higher Than Joe Biden.
- “Patently False” – CNN’s Jake Tapper Calls Out Biden Admin For Lying About Mounted Border Patrol Agents in Texas (VIDEO).
- American Stasi: Chris Wray’s FBI Is Investigating Veterans’ Group that Is Saving Americans in Afghanistan that Biden Left Stranded.
- POLL: People Who Voted For Joe Biden Are Now Abandoning Him In Droves.
- Dozens of Massachusetts State Troopers Resign Ahead of Deadline for State’s Mandatory Vaccine Mandate.
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
- Our World in Data: New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
- FT.com: Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
- Bloomberg.com: International Travel Restrictions. Case Graphs by State.
- NYTimes.com: County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
- Brown School of Public Health: Covid Severity by State/County(map). US Hospital Capacity(region).
- CovidActNow: Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
- KFF: US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
- Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits. Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
- Safegraph.com: Commerce Patterns(graphs).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.25 +3.25 basis points.
- China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +2.0 basis points.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.19 +.05%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,197.0 -30.0 points.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.50 -1.6%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.62%.
- S&P 500 futures +.42%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
Before the Open:
- None of note
After the Close:
- (JEF)/.85
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.1% decline in July.
- Durables Ex Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in July.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated to rise to 11.0 versus 9.0 in Aug.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
- The Eurozone PPI report, 2/5Y T-Note auction and the Cantor Fitzgerald Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.
- 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- U.S. Move to End Huawei Saga Help China Ties - but at a Cost.
- China Funds Counting On Beijing to Contain Evergrande Contagion.
- China Frees Canadians After Huawei CFO Leaves, Ending Crisis.
- China’s Guangdong Calls for Reduced Power Use at Shops, Offices.
- CEO of Embattled HNA Detained in China Is a U.S. Citizen.
- What Markets Expect From the German Election.
- The Fight to Control the $2 Trillion Crypto Market Is Heating Up.
- To Reach Vaccine Holdouts, Scientists Take a Page From Digital Marketing.
- Crypto Exchange Stops Taking China Users as Beijing Widens Ban.
- House Panel Set to Advance Biden’s Giant Tax, Spending Bill.
- NYC Temporarily Blocked From Imposing Schools Vaccine Mandate.
- Acceleron Is in Advanced Talks for $11 Billion Sale.
- Fed Economist Bemoans ‘Criminally Oppressive’ Social Order.
- Why Your New Couch Will Be Delivered Only in 2022.
- Profiling Coronavirus Mutations Helps Scientists Find Weak Spots.
- U.S. Condo Fees Surge 19% as Energy, Wage Bills Pile Up.
- Palm Oil May Touch 4,400 Ringgit on Tight Supplies, Mistry Says.
- A Faang Taper Quake Is What Active Manager Dreams Are Made Of.
- A Crypto Firm CEO’s Bull Case for NFTs: ‘Money Is Just a Meme’.
Wall Street Journal:
- Stablecoins Eyed as U.S. Lays Ground for Crypto Rules.
- Covid-19 Panel Probing Virus Origins Is Disbanded.
- The Five Biggest Issues Dividing Democrats in Budget Bill Talks.
- What the ‘Smart Money’ Knows About China’s Evergrande Crisis.
- Designers Try Selling Clothes First, Making Them Later.
- Joe Biden Wants to Undo a Rail Success.
- A Green Energy Texas Whitewash.
- Vindication Over Hunter’s Emails.
- For Self-Driving Cars, the Hot New Technology Is… Radar.
- Toast survived `suicide mission’ to build $30 billion restaurant-tech business.
- Retail bids farewell to layaway as shoppers embrace buy now, pay later options.
- Costco, Nike and FedEx are warning there’s more inflation set to hit.
- Here’s what Robinhood execs allegedly said internally at the height of the GameStop short squeeze.
- Bitcoin and ether slide as China intensifies crackdown on cryptocurrencies.
Fox News:
- Tucker Carlson: Biden and media are lying about COVID, here’s proof.
- President Biden issues new COVID policy to distract from multiple crises overseas and at home.
- Cruz blames Biden for Haitian migrant crisis, cites 'canceled' deportation flights.
- Dem bill has $6B 'slush fund' GOP aide warns could backdoor earmarks.
Newsmax:
Jerusalem Post:
Zero Hedge:
- AZ 2020 Election Audit Finds Massive Irregularities, But Biden Still Wins State.
- 3,000 NYC Teachers Asked For Vaccination Exemptions, Union Says.
- Sam To Become Major Hurricane Today.
- What's Really Going On In China.
- Wealthy Germans Fearing Leftist Victory In Sunday's Vote Scramble To Move Fortunes To Switzerland.
- UK's Fertilizer Crisis Spreads To EU After Another Firm Slashes Output.
- Buchanan: The Coming Climate Crisis Shakedown In Scotland.
- Panic Hoarding Gasoline Begins As UK Plunges Towards "Winter Of Discontent".
- Italy Orders Companies Not To Pay Unvaccinated Workers.
- Kemp: Worldwide Energy Shortage Shows Up In Surging Coal, Gas And Oil Prices.
- “The Housing Market Is Almost Frozen" - An Even Bigger Problem Emerges For China.
- It Never Happened: Photographer Who Took Viral Border Patrol 'Whipping' Photo Says Nobody Was Whipped.
- "Immunity As A Service" - The Snake-Oil Salesmen & The COVID-Zero Con.
- Visualizing The World's Biggest Pharmaceutical Companies.
- Is China Using Wokeism To Erode American Democracy?
- US Air Force Official: China Might 'Strike From Space'.
- Renewables Not So Reliable As US Hydropower Plunges 14%.
- Black Lives Matter NYC Leader Promises "Uprising" Against City's "Racist" Vaccine Passports.
- Texas National Guard Urges Members To Volunteer Amid Border Crisis.
- Personal Tracking Devices Moving Toward A "Dangerous" New Era.
- Containers Quickly Pile Up At US Rail Terminals, Add To Port Strains.
- First Weekly Outflow From Stocks In 2021.
TheGatewayPundit.com:
- REASONS TO DECERTIFY AZ – THE LIST: 70,000 Duplicated, Fraudulent, Illegal or Ghost Ballots (7 Times Biden’s Margin of Victory), Devices Missing, Data Deleted, Criminal Acts Referred to Authorities.
- THEY CAUGHT THEM AND THE CROWD CHEERED!! AZ Audit Team CAUGHT Maricopa County Officials DELETING COMPUTER ELECTION FILES — VIDEO.
- American Suicide: While China And Russia Expand Into Space, Dems Push To Abolish The U.S. Space Force.
- Arizona Audit Finds 25-30% of Duplicated Ballots Received Between November 4th-9th After They Knew How Many Ballots Were Needed.
- More from Australia Where Police Are Engaging in Violent Acts to Mandate COVID Restrictions(Video).
- BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Report Shows Fulton County, GA 2020 Election Had $2 million in Unsupported OT, 15 Missing Routers, an Agreement with the SPLC to Put in Place Drop Boxes, and More.
- Arizona Senate Audit: Dominion Machines Contained Non-Maricopa County Data — From South Carolina and Washington State (VIDEO).
The Epoch Times:
NY Times:
- Covid-19 cases are plunging in the South over the last two weeks despite packed college football games and campuses. Florida -46%(vaccination rate: 57%), Louisiana -43%(vaccination rate: 45%), Tennessee -36%(vaccination rate: 45%), Georgia -36%(vaccination rate: 45%), Texas -33%(vaccination rate: 51%), Mississippi -29%(vaccination rate: 43%), South Carolina -29%(vaccination rate: 47%), Arkansas -28%(vaccination rate: 45%) and Alabama -26%(vaccination rate: 42%).
Japan Today:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
- Our World in Data: New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
- FT.com: Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
- Bloomberg.com: International Travel Restrictions. Case Graphs by State.
- NYTimes.com: County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
- Brown School of Public Health: Covid Severity by State/County(map). US Hospital Capacity(region).
- CovidActNow: Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
- KFF: US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
- Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits. Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
- Safegraph.com: Commerce Patterns(graphs).
Friday, September 24, 2021
Weekly Scoreboard*
S&P 500 4,452.37 +.19%* |
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Indices
- DJIA 34,776.0 +.38%
- NASDAQ 15,023.85 -.40%
- Russell 2000 2,253.50 +.7%
- S&P 500 High Beta 75.54 +1.98%
- Goldman 50 Most Shorted 321.95 -.5%
- Wilshire 5000 46,192.13 +.26%
- Russell 1000 Growth 2,882.43 -.25%
- Russell 1000 Value 1,578.18 +.64%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 736.44 -.5%
- MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,422.35 +.26%
- NYSE Technology 4,301.48 +.08%
- Transports 14,377.08 +.5%
- Utilities 894.05 -1.2%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.09 +.9%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 50.82 -.97%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,465.68 -.24%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 926.59 -.08%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 478,635 unch.
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 90 +120
- Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.8 +1.0%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 355,064 +1.7%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,145,165 +1.8%
- Total Put/Call .95 -6.3%
- OEX Put/Call 2.02 +14.1%
- ISE Sentiment 80.0 -13.0 point
- NYSE Arms .87 -18.2%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,193.0 +241.0 points
- Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.56 unch.
- Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -3.0%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.7 -2.5%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.9 -.5%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.8 +.2%
- Smart Money Flow Index 14,299.93 -1.84%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.515 Trillion +1.1%
- ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +19.607 Million
- AAII % Bulls 29.9 +33.5%
- AAII % Bears 39.2 -.3%
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 223.99 +.85%
- Crude Oil 74.05 +2.4%
- Reformulated Gasoline 219.17 -.04%
- Natural Gas 5.11 +.57%
- Heating Oil 226.80 +2.2%
- Gold 1,750.32 -.16%
- Silver 22.38 +.22%
- S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 486.78 +.49%
- Copper 427.95 +.28%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 442.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
- China Iron Ore Spot 116.20 USD/Metric Tonne +23.7
%
- Lumber 653.90 +2.68%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,281.14 +.58%
- US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 605.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.7% unch.
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point
- Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
- NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.64 -7.4%
- US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 55.7 -73.1%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 214.22 -.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.8 +14.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.5 -44.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .6 -4.5 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 97.9% chance of no change, 2.1% chance of rate hike on 11/3
- US Dollar Index 93.29 +.12%
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,731.87 -.01%
- Bitcoin/USD 41,854 -12.4%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.88 +.57%
- Yield Curve 119.0 +7.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.45% +8.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.451 Trillion +.49%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.46 +2.59%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 122.91 +2.97%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.49 +21.9%
- Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 199.58 +10.7%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.92 +7.2%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.89 +6.8%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.02 +12.4%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.20 -.97%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% -1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 10.0 +1.0 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.11 +9.1%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 303.0 +1.1%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.35 +9.1%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.50 +13.0%
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 74.25 +.5 basis point
- Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.75 unch.
- M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.1 unch.
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,188.80 +.6%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 335,750 unch.
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% +20.0 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.88% +2.0 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 742,700 +4.9%
- Langer Consumer Comfort 56.3 -1.4 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +16.3% +.4 percentage point
- Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon +.01/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 4,651 +8.8%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,157.60 n/a
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
- Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 155.22 +16.3%
- Rail Freight Carloads 270,832 +10.6%
- US Covid-19: 273 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -54/100K people
- US Covid-19: 51% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak -10.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
- Small-Cap Value +.9%
Worst Performing Style
- Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Leading Sectors
- Airlines +6.0%
- Energy +4.4%
- Banks +3.3%
- Oil Service +2.2%
- Defense +2.1%
Lagging Sectors
- Biotech -1.5%
- Gold & Silver -2.0%
- Homebuilding -2.7%
- Digital Health -3.0%
- Steel -6.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)
- MDP, PRGS, SAVA, BJRI, PLXP, KRP, MTN, PLAY, SBGI, CPE, CAKE, VRS,
H, SNAP, OSTK, ORMP, ANGI, AOSL, NKLA, INVE, FSR, CYH, GT, CCL, PXD, M,
CF and IRWD
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)
- AMED, CHWY, CODI, OLO, ATUS, HIBB, PRTS, HYFM and DECK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
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