Saturday, December 04, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

Wall Street Journal:
Newsmax:     
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Friday, December 03, 2021

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

Wall Street Journal:
Newsmax: 
Reuters:
  • South Africa has administered at least 26,109,436 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 22.3% of the country’s population(one of world's lowest rates). COVID-19 infections are increasing from a low level in South Africa, with 6,975 new infections reported on average each day(83 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days). That’s 35% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on July 7.
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,538.43 -1.22%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 35,580.08 -.91%
  • NASDAQ 15,085.47 -2.6%
  • Russell 2000 2,159.31 -3.9%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 75.3 -2.1%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 286.05 -9.0%
  • Wilshire 5000 46,441.66 -1.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,940.59 -2.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,573.75 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 744.85 -.48%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,474.06 -.83%
  • NYSE Technology 4,221.25 -4.7%
  • Transports 15,967.24 -1.5%
  • Utilities 914.0 +.8%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.9 +1.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 48.9 -.47%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,467.24 -.52%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 916.66 +.07%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 475,644 -.82%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,097 -249
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.8 unch.
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 407,657 -1.95%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,028,573 -1.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.16 +26.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.09 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 108.0 -18.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .99 -30.3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,640.0 -1.320.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.95 -7.2%
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.7 +7.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.57 +4.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.12 -6.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.42 +4.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,912.48 -6.7%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.621 Trillion +.47%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -2.231 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 26.7 -21.0%
  • AAII % Bears 42.4 +18.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 220.64 -2.7%
  • Crude Oil 66.12 -3.6%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 195.32 -2.2%
  • Natural Gas 4.08 -26.0%
  • Heating Oil 209.11 -.46% 
  • Newcastle Coal 151.25 (1,000/metric ton) -13.9% 
  • Gold 1,783.31 -.98%
  • Silver 22.51 -2.7%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 474.59 -.12%
  • Copper 427.8 -.16%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 455.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.78%
  • Lumber 913.0 +18.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,316.55 -1.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 685.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +9.7% +1.1 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.1% +.3 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.7 +4.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 77.4 +72.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 220.60 n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.6 +7.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +20.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.1 +7.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of rate hike on 12/15
  • US Dollar Index 96.14 +.24%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,728.47 +.52%
  • Bitcoin/USD 53,151 -5.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.51 -.59%
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -28.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.35% -18.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.612 Trillion -.37%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.73 -16.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 125.69 +3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.32 -2.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 238.24 -10.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.92 +3.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.83 +3.8%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 113.17 -6.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.7 -.4%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -11.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 13.75 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +13.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 58.79 +3.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 344.0 +5.52%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 66.75 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 210.65 -4.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 75.5 +6.5 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.75 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.0 +.2 percentage point
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,094.40 -.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 238,750 -4.9%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% -.1 percentage point
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 32.5 -16.2% 
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.11% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 604,200 -7.2%
  • Langer Consumer Comfort 51.0 +.3 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +16.9% +1.7 percentage points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -14.3% -10.8 percentage points 
  • Nationwide Gas $3.37/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 3,115 +12.6%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,199.03 -.03%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.1%
  • Container Ships Anchored 1,018 +1.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 116.42 -9.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 221,702 -18.2%
  • TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 738,050 -23.5% 
  • US Covid-19:  212 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +55/100K people
  • US Covid-19:  40% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak +10 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -1.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -5.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Homebuilding +3.4%
  • Shipping +2.8%
  • Disk Drives +1.9%
  • Semis +1.3%
  • Energy +.7 %
Lagging Sectors
  • Video Gaming -5.6%
  • Gambling -7.1%
  • Internet -7.1%
  • Retail -7.2%
  • Alt Energy -11.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (0)
  • None of note
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (61)
  • RADI, CZR, ASPN, NCLH, DDOG, QTRX, CZR, SUPN, SPLK, NET, U, TOST, FUBO, NOVA, TDOC, VERI, VEEV, TXG, NVDA, CVNA, ZM, CHWY, UBER, HIBB, FRONG, CFLT, DASH, DXCM, TWLO, SQ, SOFI, BILL, SPT, CRWD, CLPT, HUBS, ESTC, DOCN, VSTO, MDB, STEM, ETSY, S, TWST, MQ, BASE, ALKT, HOOD, GNOG, DMTK, DKNG, ORMP, HOOD, NVCR, PODD, RIOT, SI, SPWH, OLLI, DOMO, ASAN, SWBI and DOCU
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Virus Lockdown Worries, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 34.0 +21.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,410.0 -526.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.52 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 +3.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.4 +17.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0  -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +2.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.16 +163.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.80 +2.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.69 -.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.86 +1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.0 -1.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.20 +1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.79 -.20%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +12.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.38 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -4.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.6 +15.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.7 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -3.0 basis points
  • 95.1%(unch.) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 69.6%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 212 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +35/100K people
  • 40% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +7.0 percentage point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -385 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -3.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -6.6% 2) Gambling -3.8% 3) Software -3.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ADPT, NCNO, CUK, RADI, AI, APP, NCLH, MASS, FRPT, FTNT, OKTA, BBW, VEEV, TXG, CVNA, VERI, SPLK, U, CFLT, GWRE, SOFI, SPT, CRWD, ESTC, SQ, CLPT, ETSY, VSTO, ADBE, BASE, HIBB, ALKT, DMTK, HOOD, TWST, DKNG, PODD, SI, SPWH, OLLI, DOMO, ASAN, SWBI and DOCU
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DOCU 2) ATOS 3) IGT 4) EXAS 5) IGV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DOCU 2) DIDI 3) BABA 4) JD 5) BIDU
Charts: