Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:   Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.5 -3.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,645.0 +128.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.50 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.6 +1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0  +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -2.8%

• NYSE Arms .95 +21.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.57 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 387.5 +2.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.03 +3.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.50 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.68 +.17%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.60 -.88% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 802.20 -.33%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 +1.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.5 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.90 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 63.0 -3.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 140.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -15.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 +4.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +5.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,265 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 74.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -43/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.6%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 70.0% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 416 New Lows
• 33.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,527.0 +8.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,564.0 +1.1%
  
• Vix 31.4 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.1 +4.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 +26.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• U.S. Urges China to Alter Quarantine Requirements for Diplomats.
• These Indicators Show Whether China Housing Clampdown Is Easing.  
• Hong Kong’s Economic Gains Face Swift Reversal on Omicron Threat.  
• How Evergrande Became China’s Big Financial Nightmare.
• Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Up as Apple Eases Gloom: Markets Wrap.
• How Fed Could Decide to ‘Shock and Awe’ With Half-Point Hike.
  
• Robinhood Crypto Revenue Falls as Meme Coin Frenzy Fades.
  
• Apple Tops China for First Time in Six Years After Huawei Fades.
  
• U.S. Housing Market Gained Almost $10 Trillion During Pandemic.  
• Tesla’s Drop Wiped Out $100 Billion of Market Value in a Day.  
• Warren Buffett Overtakes Mark Zuckerberg as Tech Fortunes Slide.  
• Fidelity Joins Invesco and Schwab in Adding China Warnings to Funds.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine’s Bulked-Up Military Is Still Outgunned by Russia.
• Behind the Stock Market Turmoil: A High-Speed Investor U-Turn.
• Economy Surged in 2021, but Headwinds Could Slow Growth.
• Covid-19 Curbs Eased Further in Europe as New Version of Omicron Spreads in Places.

Fox News:

• Cop shooting suspect barricaded in home after pulse-pounding events lead to gunfight with officers.
• 'Historic' 346 officers shot in line of duty in 2021: National Fraternal Order of Police.
• HASKINS: Criminals are targeting cops at historic levels following calls to defund the police.
• State Dept makes chilling pledge to keep Russia at bay.

CNBC.com:

• Cramer: SARK ETF is trying to benefit from the struggles of high-growth stocks.
• Apple revenue pops 11% to $123.9 billion, Cook says supply chain improving.
• Home Depot names company veteran Ted Decker as CEO.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Robinhood, Apple, Visa and more.

MarketWatch:        

• KLA Corp. stock drops following weak outlook.
  
• The stock-market index that led the pandemic-fueled tumble just entered a bear market for first time in 2 years.
  
• The U.S. dollar is soaring as Fed readies interest rate hikes — Here’s why DXY has more room to rally.

Zero Hedge:

• Ukraine's President Tells Biden To "Calm Down" In Phone Call. 
• Watch: Fauci Decrees Kids Under Four Will Get Three COVID Vaccines.
• 'Anti-Work' Reddit Goes Private After Moderator Gives Cringe Fox News Interview.
• Proposed State Law Would Make It Illegal To Request A Person's Vaccine Status.
• Elon Musk Tells 71 Million Twitter Followers To 'Vote Them Out', Stands With Canadian 'Freedom Convoy' Truckers.
• Robinhood Craters To New Record Low After Another Catastrophic Quarter.
• Inflation Winners And Losers.
• Chinese Scientists From Wuhan Discover "Potentially Deadly" New Strain Of Coronavirus.
• The Fed's Conundrum And The Secular Shift Towards Inflation.
• Traders Enter The 'Anger' Phase After The Death Of The Fed Put.
• Nearly 40% Of All Illinois COVID Deaths In The Last Month Are Breakthroughs. What Gives?
• 'Rogue Wave' 2.0: US NatGas Futures Explode Higher Into Chaotic Expiration.
• JPMorgan: Not Enough Capitulation To Call A Bottom.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Comer: 'Hypocrisy' to Go 'All Out' on Ukraine's Border Crisis.
• Russia Sees Little Cause for Optimism in US Response on Ukraine Crisis.  
• Moscow Moves Medical Units to Ukrainian Front.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• WHOOPS: Government Contractor Spills The Beans as to Why Biden is Hiding Illegal Immigrant Flights in The Dead Of Night: “If This Gets Out, the Government is BETRAYING The American People”.
• BREAKING NEWS: Louisiana Decides to Suspend Use of Soros Open Society’s Voter Registration System – ERIC.
• LAWRENCE SELLIN: Chinese Communist Party Agents Have Infiltrated US Media, Politics, Science, and Military and Yet Biden Regime Does Nothing.
• Itajaí, Brazil Citywide Prevention Program using Ivermectin Significantly Reduced COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Mortality Rate.
• BREAKING: Multiple Houston Police Officers Shot – Suspect at Large (VIDEO).
• Car Belonging to ‘Anti-Police’ Democrat Representative Cori Bush Hit by Gunfire.
• NBA Interrupts Pre-Game to Play Statement by Chinese Ambassador to US at Capitol One Arena in Washington DC.
• Paul Sperry: What Did Clinton Know and When Did She Know It? The Russiagate Evidence Builds.
• GoFundMe Suspends Access to Millions of Dollars Raised for Canadian Truckers Protesting Vaccine Mandates.
• Quebec Canada Bans Unvaxxed From Buying Groceries at Major Retailers Unless They Are Accompanied by a “Health Warden” Who Will Ensure They Only Buy Food and Medicine.
• Fauci Proposes Three Shot Series for Babies 6-Months-Old Up to Children 4-Years-Old (Video).

The Epoch Times:

• FCC Orders Shutdown of US Arm of China Unicom, Primary Telecom Provider for Beijing Olympics.

Twitter: 

• @BeachLife7 - Globalists are desperate to purge this Fauci video from the internet, and history. Watch it to the end, and you’ll soon see why. (video)
• @Osintel_ - Compilation videos.of American military equipments movement American SM users says US is preparing for a mass transfer of weapons & military equipment to Eastern Europe, trains from #Texas with Humvees & LMTVs placed on them move to #PortArthur. (video)
• @BezirganMocha - Thousands upon thousands arrive in the small town of Wawa, ON. There are no gas stations for the next 160km after Wawa. Upon the convoys arrival, the rest of Hwy 17 has been opened for the convoy to pass Traffic is slow, but steady. Road conditions aren’t great. (video)
• @ProtestNews_EN - Israel : The only quadruple-vaxxed country in the world (which also uses mask mandates and Covid passports) breaks new records for daily cases and leads the world by a wide margin. (graph) New COVID cases per capita break new world record high in Israel, where over 90% of the adult population has received 2 vaccine doses, 80% have received 3 doses, and over 500,000 Israelis have received 4 doses—which the government is now pushing for all adults. (graph)  Canada, New Brunswick/Nova Scotia Border American truckers who decided to support their Canadian colleagues in protesting against mandatory vaccination - 12000 trucks are going to Ottawa where they are supposed to meet the Canadian convoy. #TruckConvoy2022. (vdeo)
  

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Children from across #Canada leave messages for the truckers in the convoy before their final push to Ottawa. Mathew, a 12-years old from Alberta: "Keep on trucking!" (video) JUST IN - Sweden has decided against recommending #COVID19 vaccines for kids aged 5 to 11. The benefits do not outweigh the risks, the Health Agency argued.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 732,882 Reports(+9,841 from prior week) Through January 14, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.5 +.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 49.5 +1.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.91 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,481.0 -45.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.99 -2.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.56%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALV)/1.16
• (BMI)/.46
• (BAH)/.99
• (CAT)/2.26
• (CHTR)/7.13
• (CVX)/3.13
• (CHD)/.60
• (CL)/.79
• (GNTX)/.34
• (LHX)/3.27
• (LYB)/3.86
• (PSX)/1.95
• (VFC)/1.22
• (WY)/.48
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.3% gain in 3Q.
• Personal Income for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
• Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +.6% gain in Nov.
• The PCE Core MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report and the (SCHW) business update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:   Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.8 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,469.0 -53.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.30 -.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.0 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0  -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +6.1%

• NYSE Arms .98 +5.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.03 +3.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.52 +4.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.87 +1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.60 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.31 +1.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.82 -.24% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 804.91 -10.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -.55 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 +2.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.86 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 66.75 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +16.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.7 +5.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +4.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -5.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,308 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 76.0%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -81/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.6%(-1.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +320 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -5.0% 2) Alt Energy -4.3% 3) Gambling -2.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HAYW, ROK, WRBY, NVST, WHR, MMC, YETI, SQ, SIL, BALY, AMAT, IPG, KLAC, EQ, FIBK, IPG, GWB, HCA, SHLS, LOB, AMD, SOFI, TROW, GFS, NOC, TXT, AEIS, APLS, LRCX, VLY, MTSI, INTC, HAE, UPST, TSLA, VERV, SRRA, MKSI, ICHR, FLWS, TER and LC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TER 2) VFC 3) VNQ 4) JNK 5) INTC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TER 2) FLWS 3) LC 4) TSLA 5) INTC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.8% 2) Airlines +.9% 3) Software +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LEVI, PKG, EEFT, NOW, XM, CNMD, NFLX, BX, DOW, TWNK, HZO, EDIT, GRPN, CMP, GLW, URI, MOH, HSIC and AMN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TER 2) PARR 3) TGTX 4) HTA 5) LNC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) STX 2) NOW 3) LEVI 4) PKG 5) AFYA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume