Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Energy/Utilities Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,238.0 +40.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.13 -.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.4 +.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +4.9%

• NYSE Arms .82 +26.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.19  -2.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.76 -.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.84 unch.
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.05 +.21%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.23 -.31% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,316.99 -5.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.75 -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.5 -.74%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.45 +.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 21.0 +1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.4 +2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 -14.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -12/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.5%(-1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -121 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 42.2% of Issues Advancing, 54.8% Declining
• 113 New 52-Week Highs, 129 New Lows
• 42.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,228.0 +30.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,429 -1.4%
  
• Vix 22.3 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call .80 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .83 +27.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.75 +.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.0 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.29 +.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,137.0 -69.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.4 +.35%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -5.7% decline in Jan. 
• Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, UK retail sales report and the (CHS) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.5 -4.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,121.0 +169.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.53 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.6 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -1.2%

• NYSE Arms .85 -6.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.48 -.22%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.43  -1.64%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.59 +1.08%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.04 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.99 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.32 +.43% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,389.36 -5.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.5 +3.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 48.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -4.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.87 -.18%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.26 -.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .49% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 19.25 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 150.75 USD/Metric Tonne +4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.3 +5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.0 +12.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.8 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.97 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 76 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -45 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/consumer discretionary/tech/commodity sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.8% 2) Homebuilding -1.8% 3) Social Media -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PTGX, OKTA, GME, KBH, APLS, SCS, WEBR, FRSH, LNTH, NEOG and SKY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) XHB 3) OLLI 4) DRI 5) DISH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COOK 2) KHUN 3) KBH 4) LICY 5) OKTA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +4.0% 2) Steel +2.0% 3) Gambling +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTAI, MP, IRBT, NRGV, CLF, MQ, AMRC, NVDA, SRRK, BTAI, MP, IRBT, NRGV, CLF, MQ, AMRC, NVDA, SRRK, PING, ASPN, IEA, LFG, CLMT, AMD, UBER, ANDE, VICR, TNET, ATSG, BRCC, OLLI and PLL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) UNM 3) WDAY 4) AES 5) PVH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OXM 2) AMRC 3) CLF 4) PING 5) MOV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume