Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -3.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.9% 2) Airlines -4.7% 3) Gambling -4.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UPS, TWTR, AB, GKOS, SSTK, HLLY, FICO, NFLX, HPK, TCDA, ELY, CSTL, VERU, WBD, ARCC, HCAT, COUP, AWI, XM, PII, RDFN, ZION, CRL, UHS, CVNA, MEDP, JBLU, TSLA, GE and NKTX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NRZ 2) SENS 3) BLL 4) WHR 5) GE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UHS 2) ZION 3) FUBO 4) ARCC 5) CRNC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.3% 2) Oil Service +1.6% 3) Shipping +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARCH, FRGE, SKYH, MORF, AMR, SHW, BSM, VLO, WM, WHR, SAVA, HUBB, GLW, HXL and ROP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WEN 2) BKI 3) PEP 4) FTAI 5) ARCH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MX 2) ICCT 3) FDBL 4) SHW 5) WHR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 25.9% of Issues Advancing, 70.7% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 207 New Lows
• 37.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,772.0 -342.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,457 -1.94%
  
• Vix 30.4 +12.6%
• Total Put/Call .96 -16.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 +21.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Ukraine Latest: Lavrov Warns of ‘Serious’ Danger of Nuclear War.  
• Global Supply Chain Crisis Flares Up Again Where It All Began.
• Elon Musk and Twitter: What We Know, What We Don’t About $44 Billion Deal.  
• Chinese Developer Bonds Diverge as Offshore Creditors Lose Most.
• Inflation Puts Rate Hike on Table in Australia During Election.
  
• Biden Weighs Adding Global Food Aid to Ukraine Funding Request.  
• Energy-Hungry Europe Buys Up Supertanker-Sized U.S. Oil Cargoes.
• Stocks Set for Cautious Open on China Covid Worry: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Holds Drop Below $100 as Traders Weigh China’s Lockdowns.
• Warren Calls for Tougher Tech Regulation After Musk Twitter Deal.  
• Four in Ten U.S. Small Businesses Plan to Raise Prices by at Least 10%.  
• DeSantis Signals More Disney Action After ‘First Step’.  
• Wind Power’s ‘Colossal Market Failure’ Threatens Climate Fight.
• Rumbling in Options Market Is Sound of Traders Rushing to Hedge.
• Fed’s Powell to Hold First In-Person Press Conference of Pandemic Next Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Florida, Utah Take on ESG Farce. If you thought Disney made the ‘corporate social responsibility’ crowd look bad, how about Russia?
• Twitter Agrees to Musk’s Takeover Bid in $44 Billion Deal.
• What Elon Musk Would Do With Twitter.
• Latest Updates: Republicans Cheer Deal; Democrats See Perils.
• Beijing Braces for Omicron Wave With Stockpiling, Testing.
• Wall Street Finds New Value in Cash.
• Alec Baldwin Seen on Video Rehearsing With Gun Before Fatal Shooting on ‘Rust’.
• U.S. Wants to See Russia Weakened, Says Defense Secretary Austin.
• Latest Updates: Russian Regions Near Ukraine Extend State of Alert. 
• Ukraine War Cuts Fertilizer Supply, Hurting Food Prices and Farmers.
• Gas-Engine Bans Drive Landscapers Toward Electric Mowers, Blowers.
• Whirlpool Says Appliance Demand Is Waning, as Costs Mount.

Fox News:   

• Musk's bold statement on free speech, plans to 'make Twitter better than ever' after offer accepted.
• New book reveals why Pelosi says Obama is 'jealous' of Biden.

CNBC.com:

• Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter leaves many key questions unanswered.
• Ford beefs up F-150 Lightning production in a forceful bid to dominate the electric pickup market.
• Twitter CEO tells employees company is in the dark over future under Musk.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cadence Design, Packaging Corp of America, SBA Communications and more.
• Tripled salaries, big bonuses, on-the-spot offers: Recruiters are going to extreme lengths to hire.

MarketWatch:        

• JCPenney owners offer $8.6 billion to acquire rival Kohl’s.
  
• Opinion: Hackers and scammers are after your crypto and NFTs. Here’s how to keep your digital money safe and secure.

Zero Hedge:

• "There Is No Place Left To Hide": Mike Wilson Says The Bear Market Is About To Turn Grisly.
• The Real Victim Of Shanghai's COVID Lockdown? Intra-Asia Trade Pipeline.
• GM To Produce "Electrified Corvette" Next Year.
• Censorship And Propaganda Threatens Our Freedom.
• "You Are Throwing Me Under The Bus" - Musk Rages At Saudi Wealth Fund Head In Tweets Exposed By 'Funding Secured' Lawsuit.
• Buy protection when you can, not when you must...
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks shrugged off China Covid headwinds.
• In "Huge Win For Border Security", Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Admin From Lifting 'Title 42'.
• Google Rolls Out Feature That Corrects You With Woke 'Inclusive' Language; Report.
• Watch: Former Ukraine Ambassador Slips Up, Admits Putin Wouldn't Have Invaded Under Trump.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: China COVID sends global tremors as DXY ravishes to new peaks.
• Financial Markets Brace For Stagflation As Global Growth Optimism Sinks.
  
• John Durham Issues Trial Subpoenas To Members Of Clinton Campaign, DNC.
• Big-Tech & Bitcoin Shrug Off Beijing Bloodbath; Bond Yields, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered.

Newsmax:   

• Russia Warns of WWIII After Top US Officials Visit Kyiv.
  
• Gov. Justice: US Border Agents Deserve Respect, Not Loathing.
• Montana AG: WH Must Reverse on Keystone.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• STUDY: Vaccinated Up to 15X MORE LIKELY Than Unvaxxed to Develop Heart Inflammation Requiring Hospitalization: Peer Reviewed Study.
• University of Wisconsin Track Star Dead at 21.
• “I Don’t Have Any Information on That” – Psaki When Asked Why Hunter Biden’s Closest Business Partner Visited Obama’s White House 19 Times and Met with Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Signs Election Integrity Bill Dedicated to Voter Fraud Prevention – Makes Ballot Harvesting a Felony (VIDEO).
• Democrat Rep. Clyburn Requests Briefing on How Soon the FDA Can Approve COVID Vaccines for Children Under Five.
• TRAGIC NEWS: Body of Missing Texas National Guard Soldier Bishop Evans Found Near Eagle Pass — Another Biden Casualty.
• ‘I Tried to Talk to Him Last Night, We Spoke with His Staff’ – French President Emmanuel Macron Snubs Biden After Election Win (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Marxists Seek to Destabilize American Society Through Sexualization of Young People: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.75 +2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.0 +5.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.69 -.06%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,093.0 -21.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MMM)/2.31
• (ARCH)/11.68
• (ADM)/1.41
• (AVY)/2.17
• (GLW)/.50
• (DHI)/3.50
• (GE)/.19
• (JBLU)/-.87
• (NVR)/96.94
• (PCAR)/1.54
• (PII)/1.77
• (RTX)/1.02
• (SHW)/1.54
• (UPS)/2.88
• (VLO)/1.64
  

After the Close:

• (GOOG)/25.68
• (BYD)/1.20
• (CNI)/1.39
• (COF)/5.44
• (CMG)/5.64
• (CB)/3.48
• (EW)/.57
• (FFIV)/2.01
• (GM)/1.67
• (JNPR)/.32
• (MANH)/.45
• (MSFT)/2.20
• (MDLZ)/.75
• (NCR)/.63
• (RHI)/1.46
• (TER)/.89
• (TXN)/2.19
• (V)/1.65
• (WH)/.64
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.1% decline in Feb.
• Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -.6% decline in Feb.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in Feb.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.6% gain in Jan.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.79% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April is estimated to rise to 108.0 versus a reading of 107.2 in March.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to fall to 9 versus 13 in March.
• New Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 768K versus 772K in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports and the (ELY) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on China Bubble-Bursting Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Commodity/Telecom Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.2 +7.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,866.0 -467.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.80 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.3 -.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 -13.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 -35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.02 -.04%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.19 +4.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.17 +3.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.22 +6.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 269.03 -1.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.36 -.41%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12,505.70 +4.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 45.0 +9.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.92 +.43%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.70 -.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .82% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 20.5(2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.50 -4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 57.0 +5.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.91 -9.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 99 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.4%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating 85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +106 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -7.9% 2) Shipping -6.3% 3) Energy -5.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NUE, INSW, AA, CELU, SUN, BSM, NEP, ARLP, VSAT, ARCH, EPD, CARA, ET, VZ, TMO, NFLX, USAC, SIL, WFRD, AGCO, BCX, PAA, CRGY, MOS, ABM, DE, CLF, LBRT, PAGP, SCHN, CVNA, SYNH, FRGE, IPI, ESTE, EGLE, HPK, GNK and AXSM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ICLN 2) ARCC 3) ATVI 4) NLY 5) WHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AXSM 2) SYNH 3) GATO 4) DE 5) TMO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume