Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• EU Tells Gas Companies Not to Bend to Russia’s Demand for Rubles.
  
• Biden Approves More Gas Export Projects as Russia Cuts Supply to Europe.
  
• Ukraine Latest: White House Readies Long-Term Assistance Package.  
• Major Shipping Firm Sees Signs of Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Easing.  
• China’s Hangzhou Starts Mass Covid Testing; Shanghai Cases Drop.
• Banks Slash Yuan Forecasts as China’s Economy Reels From Covid.
• U.S. Futures Rise, Stocks Steady as Meta Aids Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips as Investors Weigh China’s Lockdowns, Russian War.
• Bill Hwang’s Archegos Catastrophe Was Wilder Than Anyone Knew.
• Fed Nominees to Wait Until Ailing Democrats Return, Brown Says.   
• Stock Rout Is Fed’s ‘Best-Case Scenario’ as Powell-Put Era Ends.  
• More NYC Apartment Renters Are Moving Out Instead of Paying Higher Rates.  
• Apollo Throws Struggling Carvana $1.6 Billion Junk-Bond Lifeline.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies.
• Latest Updates: U.S. Weighs Listing Russia as State Sponsor of Terrorism.
• Russia’s Energy Extortion of Poland and Bulgaria. With more U.S. help for Europe, the ploy could boomerang on Vladimir Putin.
• Fentanyl Kills So Fast That Aid Groups Are Rethinking How to Fight Overdoses.

Fox News:   

• Teachers union boss facing potentially serious consequences over alleged 'doctored quotation'.
• Randi Weingarten says parental rights bills are 'the way in which wars start'.
• Fauci forced to backtrack after claiming US is 'certainly' out of 'pandemic phase'.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta, Qualcomm, Ford, PayPal and more.
• Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009.
• Qualcomm revenue pops 41% driven by Android phone chip sales.
• Pinterest jumps after earnings beat.

MarketWatch:            

• Ford’s Rivian investment drags down Q1 earnings, and supply-chain challenges remain.
  
• Teladoc stock plunges more than 30% after earnings outlook slashed, massive impairment charge.  
• PayPal cuts earnings outlook, but user growth quells some fears.

Zero Hedge:

• DHS Creating 'Disinformation Governance Board' Ahead Of Midterms.
• Russia Hoax: Durham Staffer Accidentally Reveals Emails Showing Coordination Between Fusion GPS And Media.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks ended a choppy session mixed, although futures benefitted post-Meta earnings.
• Germany Supports 'Gradual' EU Ban On Russian Oil As Moscow Rejects Gas Payment From Seized Trading Unit.
• Plastic Grocery Bag Bans Actually Boost Sale Of Small Plastic Garbage Bags: Study.
• Iran & China Declare Deepened Military Cooperation To Confront 'US Unilateralism'.
• More Secret Gender Transition Closets Discovered In Public Schools.
• "Bigger Mess Than Last Year" - Global Supply Chain Crisis Could Emerge By Summer.
• Luongo On Disney's Demise: "This Is Not The Way".
• Rates reversing?
• Biden Administration Releases Plan To Deal With Expected Illegal Immigration Surge.
• Fauci Admits "Pandemic Phase" Of COVID Is Over.
• Southern California Asks Millions To Cut Outdoor Water Use Amid Drought.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks pause and DXY firms amid China lockdowns, peak earnings season, and the EU gas crisis.
• Facebook Soars After Reporting Solid User Growth Despite Revenue Miss And Weak Guidance.
• FANG FUBAR, Bonds & Boeing Battered As Dollar Index Nears 20-Year-High.

 Newsmax: 

• US Judge Halts WH Preparations for End of US Asylum Limit.  
• Rep. Reschenthaler: 'America First' Driving 'New Republican Party'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Hillary Clinton Takes a Swipe at Trump, Goes on Woke, Feminist Rant at Madeleine Albright’s Funeral (VIDEO).
• Twitter Source Leaks Internal Slack Channel Reconfirming Shadowbanning is Real (VIDEO).
• **HUGE** Georgia State Elections Board FINALLY Issue First Subpoenas to True the Vote on Ballot Trafficking Investigation INCLUDING INFORMATION ON ALLEGED WHISTLEBLOWER!
• Biden to Teachers: “They’re Not Somebody Else’s Children, They’re Yours When You’re in the Classroom” (VIDEO).
  
• Wow! McCarthy DEFENDS Leaked Jan. 10, 2021 Audio and GOP Lawmakers Cheer — Talked of Removing Trump from Office, Urging Tech Giants to Silence Conservatives.
• JUST IN: Masked, Shielded, and Quadruple-Vaxxed Maxine Watters, 83, Tests Positive for Covid-19 – Says She’s “Grateful to be Fully Vaccinated”.
• Madrid’s Deputy Minister for Public Health Claims Cases of Hepatitis on Young Kids Might be “Related to Covid-19 Vaccine”.
• California Democrats to Raise State’s Gas Tax to 53.6-Cents Per Gallon This Summer.
• Goya Foods CEO Warns We’re on the Precipice of a Global Food Crisis.
• DHS Chief Mayorkas Absurdly Claims, “We Have Effectively Managed” Biden’s Border Crisis – As Millions of Illegals Pour Over the Border (VIDEO).
• Former Rep. Steve King Reveals What Really Goes On In Capitol Hill: McCarthy ‘Worshipped’ The New York Times And Is Forcing GOP Members To Sell Out To Globalists.
• Welp, That Backfired: LibsofTikTok Trolls WaPo Crybully Taylor Lorenz After Gaining Hundreds of Thousands of Followers on Twitter, Breaking ONE MILLION.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Visitor Logs Reveal Meetings Between Hunter Biden Business Partner and Joe Biden.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.75 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  79.75 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.37 -.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,760.0 -17.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.9 -3.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.63%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MO)/1.09
• (AEP)/1.20
• (BAX)/.81
• (BC)/2.33
• (CAT)/2.60
• (CMCSA)/.81
• (DISH)/.75
• (DPZ)/3.08
• (LLY)/2.30
• (FCN)/1.44
• (GWW)/6.12
• (HSY)/2.10
• (IP)/.56
• (IRM)/.71
• (JKS)/.49
• (KDP)/.33
• (LH)/6.01
• (MA)/2.16
• (MCD)/2.17
• (MRK)/1.83
• (NOC)/5.98
• (BTU)/2.20
• (PHM)/1.73
• (RS)/7.18
• (SIRI)/.08
• (SAH)/2.37
• (LUV)/-.30
• (SWK)/1.70
• (STRA)/.74
• (TROW)/.76
• (TWTR)/.02
  

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/8.50
• (AAPL)/1.43
• (BZH)/1.05
• (FSLR)/-.44
• (GILD)/1.81
• (INTC)/.79
• (KLAC)/4.82
• (MHK)/2.91
• (OLN)/2.34
• (RMAX)/.50
• (HOOD)/-.36
• (SKYW)/-.01
• (SYK)/1.94
• (TEX)/.47
• (TRUP)/-.02
• (X)/2.95
• (WDC)/1.49
• (ZEN)/.15
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.9% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.5% versus a +2.5% gain in 4Q.
• The GDP Price Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +7.2% versus a +7.1% gain in 4Q.
• The Core PCE QoQ for 1Q is estimated to rise +5.5% versus a +5.0% gain in 4Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 180K versus 184K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1399K versus 1417K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 35.0 versus 37.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying, Commodity/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.2 -9.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,873.0 +344.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.25 +.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.5 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +5.7%

• NYSE Arms .72 -56.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.15 -.30%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.48 -.89%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.82 -.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.84 +2.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 271.53 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.13 -.02%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19,062.50 +27.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.75 -2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 39.75 -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  122.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.85 -.51%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.36 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .81% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 23.75(2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 140.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.0 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.0 +.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.4 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.89 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 108 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.5%(+.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +114 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -2.2% 2) Networking -1.3% 3) Internet -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NFLX, EW, WBD, ILPT, CVNA, RHI, TRN, BA, HA, FFIV, FRGE and NCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) SABR 3) BA 4) TXN 5) CAR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NCR 2) BA 3) ROKU 4) HA 5) AFRM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +4.0% 2) Shipping +3.8% 3) Software +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMR, JBT, VRT, DWAC, NKTX, MAT, SJT, INSW, BG, AA, MA, OC, SKX, MBI, SLAB, ABCB, GSHD, RUSHA, RGEN, ZNTL, FCX, HPK, KRP, MAS, AVY, MFA, SSTK, SHW, WAB, VLO, SRCL, AKRO, TMUS, FISV, DX, ARCH, SF, NOW, TENB, CMG, QS, BSM, CRM, V, ENPH, DRVN, ARLP, MSFT, CEIX, ARCC, EXAS, INBX, INSW, DCPH, ACET, ADM, SBOW, MAS, SHW, CMG and IART
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GCI 2) NCR 3) FEZ 4) MAT 5) CHGG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NUTX 2) VRT 3) RGEN 4) V 5) ARCH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 56.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 363 New Lows
• 37.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,809.0 +278.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,537 +.37%
  
• Vix 31.2 -7.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.13 +6.6%
• TRIN/Arms .82 -50.0%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Russia to Cut Gas to Poland and Bulgaria, Making Energy a Weapon.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Cuts Gas, UN Seeks Mariupol Relief Role.  
• Russia Left Swaths of Ukraine Seeded With Mines, Aid Group Says.
  
• U.S. Seeks More Authority to Seize Russian Assets to Aid Ukraine.  
• Satellite Data Show Extent of China’s Crippling Lockdowns.
• China Running Out of Ways to Stem Self-Made Market Meltdown.
  
• BOJ to Reaffirm Easing Stance as Yen Risk Mounts: Decision Guide. 
• Stocks Struggle, Bonds Rise as Growth Outlook Dims: Markets Wrap.
  
• U.S. Diesel Futures Close at Record High as Shortage Deepens.
  
• Chipotle Says Food Inflation Pressure May Persist Into 2023.  
• Texas Republicans Bear Down on Wall Street Over Its Embrace of Climate Policies.   
• Churning Stocks Dealing Swift Punishment to Anyone Who Dares Buy.

Wall Street Journal:

• In Ukrainian Villages, Fears Grow for Men Taken to Russia.
• Russia’s Lavrov Says NATO Is Using Ukraine as a Proxy, Warns Against World War III.
• Latest Updates: Russia to Stop Supplying Natural Gas to Poland and Bulgaria.
• Musk Bets Twitter Users Will Like a More Freewheeling Platform.
• China Looms Large Over Twitter’s Future.
• Harvard Pledges $100 Million to Redress Ties to Slavery.
• Business Schools Try to Talk M.B.A. Prospects Into Quitting Their Jobs.
• Biden Seriously Considering Student-Loan Forgiveness, Officials Say.

Fox News:   

• McEnany on liberals' meltdown over Elon Musk buying Twitter: 'They fear a level playing field'.

CNBC.com:

• GM will start tying executive compensation to electric vehicle targets.
• Tesla stock closes down more than 12% after Musk’s Twitter deal.
• Microsoft earnings beat across the board, stock up on outlook.
• YouTube’s huge miss shows digital media ad market is getting hit hard.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Robinhood & more.
• Chipotle earnings beat estimates as customers paid more, helping offset surging costs.
• Biden blocks sales of inefficient lightbulbs, reversing Trump-era policy.

MarketWatch:          

• These 21 large-cap stocks have now plunged at least 50% as tech falls to fresh low.
  
• Lael Brainard confirmed to be Powell’s No. 2 at Fed.
  
• A median-priced new home in the U.S. is roughly $77,000 more expensive than it was a year ago.

Zero Hedge:

• Twitter's Top Lawyer Breaks Down In Tears During Musk Takeover Meeting.
• Poland Confirms Russia To Halt All Gas Delivery Wednesday If Payment Not Settled In Rubles.
• Biden Senior Adviser Called 'Squad' Members 'F**king Idiots' According To NYT Reporters.
• Some Vaccine-Injured Getting Better While Others See Little Improvement.
• A Lone Bank Doubles Down On Its Doomsday Call, Says Recession "Will Be Worse Than Expected".
• Bolsonaro Asks WTO Not To Sever Russian Trade As 27 Fertilizer Ships Inbound.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks declined and Alphabet missed on earnings.
• Broken markets...
• Big Tech Censored Biden Criticism 646 Times Over 2 Years: Report.
• WTI Slides Lower After Surprise Crude Build.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks plunge deeper on global growth woes while Nasdaq 100 sees biggest decline since Feb 3rd.
• "Meltdown": Bank Of America Sounding The Alarm On Collapsing Freight Demand.
• Robinhood To Fire 9% Of Full-Time Employees.
• Alphabet Plummets 7% After Missing On Earnings, YouTube Revenues, Despite New $70BN Stock Buyback. 
• Elon Musk 'Clarifies' Free Speech Stance After EU Threats.
• Pukefest!

Newsmax:  

• Fiona Hill on Putin Using Nuclear Weapons: 'Of Course He Would'.
• Ukraine Accuses Russia of Blackmail With Plan to Halt Gas to Poland.
• US, Allies Vow Heavy Arms for Ukraine, Shrug Off Russian Nuke Warning.
• Reports of Russian Concentration Camps, Demands for Money.
• Biden Admin. Pushed Germany to Delay Russian Oil Ban Until After Midterms.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING: Project Veritas Releases Leaked Audio of Twitter Meeting Following Elon Musk’s Purchase.
• Schumer Says the “Only Way” to Reduce Inflation Caused by Biden and Democrats is to Raise Taxes on Americans (VIDEO).
• Family Launches Billboard Campaign – Claims Pfizer Drugs and Wisconsin Hospital Killed Their Daughter Grace.
• Double Vaccinated ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit to Miss 2022 NFL Draft Due to Blood Clot (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Paid For Hunter Biden’s Legal Bills For a Deal with Communist China.
• Despite Record Pain at the Pump — Joe Biden Blocks Oil Drilling on Millions of Acres of US Land.
• Biden Incurred $5.2 Million in Unexplained Income Hidden in Financial Records.
• JUST IN: Fully Vaxxed and *Double Boosted* Kamala Harris Tests Positive For Covid-19, Goes Into Isolation.
• “They Attack People Viciously and Personally Why, Because the Left Can’t Win on the Facts. Their Agenda Is Insane” – Senate Candidate and Former Governor Eric Greitens.

The Epoch Times:

• Marxists Seek to Destabilize American Society Through Sexualization of Young People: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  81.5 +2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.36 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,480.0 -44.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.0 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AMT)/2.48
• (ADP)/2.08
• (BA)/-.22
• (BSX)/.39
• (BG)/2.94
• (CME)/2.00
• (DISCA)/.57
• (GD)/2.52
• (GPI)/9.43
• (HOG)/1.47
• (HES)/1.11
• (HUM)/6.78
• (KHC)/.53
• (MAS)/.85
• (NSC)/2.92
• (ODFL)/2.41
• (OSK)/.17
• (OC)/2.44
• (PAG)/3.64
• (RGEN)/.72
• (R)/2.38
• (STX)/1.88
• (STM)/.70
  

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.37
• (ALGN)/2.23
• (AMGN)/4.16
• (AVB)/2.26
• (CHRW)/1.55
• (CP)/.71
• (CAKE)/.51
• (DFS)/3.61
• (F)/.38
• (FWRD)/1.36
• (HTZ)/.86
• (LVS)/-.24
• (FB)/2.51
• (OII)/-.01
• (ORLY)/7.41
• (PYPL)/.88
• (PPC)/.68
• (QCOM)/2.92
• (RJF)/1.64
• (NOW)/1.70
• (SAVE)/-1.58
• (URI)/4.87
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$105.0B versus -$106.3B in Feb.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.5% gain in Feb.
• Retail Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +1.1% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -4.1% decline in Feb.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -225,000 barrels versus a -8,020,00 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +300,000 barrels versus a -761,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -985,710 barrels versus a -2,664,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.21% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Trade Balance report, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.