Friday, April 29, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,131.93 -3.3%























 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 32,977.21 -2.5%
  • NASDAQ 12,334.64 -3.9%
  • Russell 2000 1,864.10 -4.0%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 67.24 -2.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 207.99 -5.0%
  • Wilshire 5000 41,679.16 -3.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,453.23 -3.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,541.02 -3.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 810.50 -2.1%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,172.07 -1.2%
  • NYSE Technology 3,112.81 -2.3%
  • Transports 14,865.06 -1.3%
  • Utilities 999.90 -4.1%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.97 -2.93%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.48 +.86%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,464.43 -.57%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 930.66 +.02%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 455,207 -.97%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,555 -935
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -34.2 -1.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 307,697 +.96%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,740,300 -2.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.24 -7.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.26 -13.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 88.0 +18.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 -47.6
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,020.0 -432.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.70 -15.0%
  • Volatility(VIX) 32.81 +10.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.47 +9.6%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.0 +13.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.07 +7.0%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,943.88 +1.49%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.510 Trillion +.92%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -23.675 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 16.4 -13.2%
  • AAII % Bears 59.4 +35.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 308.27 +1.3%
  • Crude Oil 104.05 +5.0%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 347.21 +6.7%
  • Natural Gas 7.28 +12.1%
  • Heating Oil 478.17 +37.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 299.0 (1,000/metric ton) -12.6%
  • Gold 1,904.23 -1.2%
  • Silver 22.85 -4.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 541.60 -4.9%
  • Copper 439.90 -4.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 621.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Lumber 1,034.40 +2.63%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,649.12 +.93%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 820.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.9% +.6 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.0% -.6 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.3 -2.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 53.6 -45.3%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.61 +.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.4 -27.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 +22.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.3 +4.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 99.1%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4
  • US Dollar Index 103.0 +2.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,686.71 -1.6%
  • Bitcoin/USD 38,655.52 -2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.78 -1.4%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 18.75 -.25 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.89% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.902 Trillion -.19%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.4 +6.0%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 138.36 unch.
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 +14.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.9 +4.3%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 228.26 +1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.52 -.11%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.93 +11.9%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,839.0 -68.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.3 -.6%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 3.0% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 46.0 +10.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 -1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 82.88 +5.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 394.76 +3.98%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 101.42 +12.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 283.68 +5.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 123.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.6 -1.1%
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 9.9 -1.1 percentage points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,104.40 +1.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 179,750 +1.3%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 40.5 -5.4% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.42% +13.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 343,100 -8.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +13.7% -.6 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +1.0% +5.8 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $144.5M -6.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.16/gallon +.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,403 +4.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,109.8 -.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 -8.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 111.32 +9.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 268,967 +.15%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,258,077 +23.6%
  • US Covid-19:  115 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(+2.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  +23/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -91.2%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Growth -1.3%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -2.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Social Media +4.2%
  • Software +1.7%
  • Homebuilders +1.3%
  • Energy +.9%
  • Road & Rail +.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical Equipment -4.3%
  • Networking -4.5%
  • Telecom -4.8%
  • Gold & Silver -4.8%
  • Airlines -4.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (4)
  • FRGE, MHK, DWAC and HUBG
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (38)
  • BMY, WOW, ORI, CCOI, SYK, CMCSA, CRI, HCAT, RLGY, CL, X, CVNA, STAG, IONS, INTC, COLM, SSNC, ILPT, CUBE, LBRDA, EGP, BHVN, LBRDK, FR, BHVN, CINF, EBS, CHTR, ABBV, FTAI, LYLT, RILY, WU, VRSN, CENX, AMZN, VERI and MITK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.9 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,173.0 -5.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.74%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.4 +.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +6.2%
  • NYSE Arms .91 +33.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +2.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.02 -.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.92 +2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.67 -1.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 284.88 +5.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.30 +.46%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,707.59 -83.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 46.0 +3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.70 -.30%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.53 +.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .83% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 18.25(2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.4 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 -3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.3 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 unch.
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 115 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +2/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.0%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 27.5% of Issues Advancing, 68.7% Declining
  • 16 New 52-Week Highs, 98 New Lows
  • 33.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,187.0 +10.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,701 -.64%
  • Vix 30.3 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 +4.4%
  • TRIN/Arms .73 +7.4%

Thursday, April 28, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:     
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 -1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  77.5 -2.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.01%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,176.0 -3.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.6%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABBV)/3.14
  • (AB)/.84
  • (AZN)/1.68
  • (B)/.40
  • (BLMN)/.74
  • (BMY)/1.89
  • (CRI)/1.39
  • (CBOE)/1.68
  • (CHTR)/6.66
  • (CVX)/3.44
  • (CL)/.75
  • (XOM)/2.23
  • (HON)/1.86
  • (LYB)/3.55
  • (MGA)/1.10
  • (NWL)/.27
  • (PSX)/1.27
  • (WY)/1.23
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
  • Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in February.
  • Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in February.
  • The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 62.9 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German GDP report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.2 -10.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,314.0 +533.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.45 +1.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +5.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.2 -4.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -22.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.1 -2.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.17 -.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.72 +1.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.11 -1.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 270.20 -.93%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.13 -.05%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22,616.70 +18.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +3.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 -1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.74 -.32%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.32 -.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .81% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.5(2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 141.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -25.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.7 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 +4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +9.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 113 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(+1.0 percertage point) of 1/14 peak +5/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.2%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +560 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long