Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Alarmed by Russia’s Aggression, Europe Rethinks Its China Ties.
• Biden’s Ukraine Aid Risks Slowdown as GOP Balks at Covid Tie-In.
• Ukraine Latest: Biden Seeks Aid, Power to Seize Russian Wealth.  
• China’s Sudden Currency Plunge Raises Risk of a 2015-Style Panic. 
  
• Shanghai Covid Cases Rise For First Time in Six Days.   
• Yen Traders Brace for Choppy Holiday Week With Fed Poised to Act.
  
• U.S. Equity Futures Fall as Amazon, Apple Sap Mood: Markets Wrap.
• Europe Seeks to Draw Tougher Line on Russian Gas Threat.
• Oil Heads for Longest Run of Monthly Gains Since Early 2018.  
• Earnings Exacerbate Stock Market Volatility Whipped Up by Fed.  
• Coinbase Cracks Down on Front-Running of New Crypto Listings.  
• Manchin Rejects Biden’s EV Tax Credit as ‘Ludicrous’.  
• Investor Who Called Housing Top and Bottom Says It's Time to Sell.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Economy Contracted on Trade, Supply Disruptions.
• Biden Seeks New Ukraine Aid as Russia Makes Slow Progress in Seizing East.
• Latest Updates: House Passes Ukraine Lend-Lease Bill Aimed at Easing Military-Gear Transfers.
• Germany Drops Opposition to Embargo on Russian Oil.
• Oil Middlemen Fueled Putin’s War Machine. Now They’re Getting Out.
• Rumors of Stagflation in First Quarter GDP. The economy surprises economists by shrinking 1.4%, which should kill a tax increase.
• Americans for Merit-Based Admissions. Poll respondents say academic achievement matters more than race. 
• Travel Is Back, but Airline and Hotel Workers Are Not.
• The Permian Basin Oil Field Is Running Out of Workers, Materials—and Cash.

Fox News:     

• NYC theater pulls plug on pro-life play countering abortion comedy, cites 'safety' concerns.
• WATCH: Social media explodes after Biden's latest 'alarming' gaffe.
• Pro-life medical experts rip media's coverage of abortion: Not following 'science' but 'political rhetoric'.

CNBC.com:

• Robinhood shares fall as retail brokerage reports shrinking revenue, fewer active users.
• Hertz CEO says rebounding business travel could tighten an already-constrained used car market.
• We went to Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Target & Walmart in 3 cities — here’s where staples cost the most.

MarketWatch:              

• Intel stock declines as chip maker doubles down on outlook despite headwinds.
  
• KLA confirms supply-chain issues for chip-equipment companies, but stock still ticks higher.
  
• Roku’s stock pops in ‘relief rally’ on rise in usage.   
• ‘Buyers of a median-price home are looking at a monthly mortgage payment that is almost 50% higher than it was a year ago.’ The 30-year mortgage rate dips slightly to 5.1%.

Zero Hedge:

• Is President Biden OK?
• Kansas Senate Overrides Governor’s Veto On Transgender Sports Ban Bill.
• Whistleblowers: CDC, FDA "Altered" Covid Guidance And Suppressed Findings Amid Political Pressure.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Tearing Down The Silicon Valley Wall.
• Apple Loses All After Hours Gains, Slides After Warning Supply Constraints Will Cost $4-$8 Billion.
• Federal Judge Explains Why He's Blocking Biden Admin's Termination Of Title 42.
• Moderna Asks FDA To Authorize Covid Vaccine For Children Under 6.
• Sell low buy high pain continues.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - US stocks notched firm gains despite US GDP contraction.
• 'Libs Of TikTok' WaPo-Dox Backfires After Account Gains 500,000 New Followers In One Week.
• The Defense Production Act Cannot Increase Critical Mineral Production Without Streamlining Project Permitting.
• After Backlash, Google Turns Off 'Newspeak' Correction Tool (For Now).
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: DXY prints 20yr highs, NDX surges, and first US GDP contraction post-2020 brushed aside.
• Amazon Crashes After Reporting Catastrophic Guidance, Worst Revenue Growth In Decade.
• "WTF Was That!" - Stocks Explode Higher As US Economy Heads Into Recession.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Greene Plans Twitter-Ban Appeal, Urges Musk to Meet With Suspended Users.  
• Russia Warns of Retaliation Against US for 'Idiotic' Sanctions.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Psaki Refuses to Comment on the Far-Left Activist Overseeing Biden Regime’s New ‘Disinformation Governance Board’ (VIDEO).
• Biden Brags, “I Think We’re… Seeing Enormous Growth in the Country” – After Economy Shrinks by 1.4% in First Quarter (VIDEO).
• Dr. Fauci Walks Back Covid Comments, Says Pandemic Not Over in US After White House Sets Him Straight.
• Biden’s Military Is “Using the COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate to “Intentionally Purge” Religious Service Members”.
• WATCH: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Tells Jim Acosta to His Face, ‘You Know Why People Don’t Like You? Because You’re a Liar’.
• “2000 Mules” Is Taking on a Life of Its Own, And It Hasn’t Even Been Released Yet.
• Elon Musk Tweets How He Didn’t Get More Conservative – Libs Got More Radical.
• Too Little, Too Late? Georgia Governor Kemp Signs Bill to Empower Investigations Into Voter Fraud, Election Crimes.
• A 15-Year-Old Chicago Boy Committed Suicide After Bullies Relentlessly Targeted Him For Being ‘Unvaccinated,’ According to Lawsuit.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Seeks to Control Global EV Supply Chain, Leaving US Vulnerable: Experts.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS  77.5 -2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,176.0 -3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.6%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/3.14
• (AB)/.84
• (AZN)/1.68
• (B)/.40
• (BLMN)/.74
• (BMY)/1.89
• (CRI)/1.39
• (CBOE)/1.68
• (CHTR)/6.66
• (CVX)/3.44
• (CL)/.75
• (XOM)/2.23
• (HON)/1.86
• (LYB)/3.55
• (MGA)/1.10
• (NWL)/.27
• (PSX)/1.27
• (WY)/1.23
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
• Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in February.
• Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in February.
• The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 62.9 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German GDP report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.