Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Yen Weakness, US Housing Data, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Gaining
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -5.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,880.0 +234.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.93 +1.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 +.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.8 -4.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 96.0 -5.0%
  • NYSE Arms .89 +15.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.11 +.77%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.41 -1.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.68 +2.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.16 +2.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 258.72 -.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.5 unch.
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,198.1 -4.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 22.5 -9.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 -3.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.87 -.28%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.28 -.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .82% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 33.75 -6.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 151.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.90 +3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.0 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.96 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 81 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +7/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.4%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +180 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

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