Thursday, April 07, 2022

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Diminished Russia Sovereign Default Fears, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.7 +2.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,312.0 -58.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.82 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -.54%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.3 -.35% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .92 -1.08%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 +79.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.91 +.86%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.70 +1.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.34 +.97%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.39 +.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.54 +1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.7 -.15%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,643.2 -10.3%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.75 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 -2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 49.27 -.10%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.39 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .67% unch.
  • Yield Curve 19.75 +9.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 158.30 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.9 +6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -4.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.2%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +112 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long

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